Monday, October 29, 2018

Stocks Reversing Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Fears, Emerging Market Debt/Currency Angst, Earnings Jitters, Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.9 +7.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.97 +.22%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.91 -.90%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.32 +4.69%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 -9.2%
  • Total Put/Call 1.12 -14.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.24 +12.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.83 +1.13%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 490.0 +2.15%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.13 -2.31%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 296.0 -13.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.44 +1.71%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 208.85 +2.44%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.25 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 20.75 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -49.75 -3.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.42 -.45%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.30% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 27.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 74.35 USD/Metric Tonne -.34%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.9 +1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -39.6 +2.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.50 +1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 -1.0 basis point
  • 71.8% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 72.3% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -150 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -96 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -100 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and my emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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