Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Less European Debt Angst, Bargain-Hunting, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.11 -9.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.05 -.25%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.27 +2.8%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.0 -7.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 72.0 -35.1%
  • Total Put/Call 1.13 -5.1%
  • NYSE Arms .95 +58.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.99 -2.28%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 5219.0 +1.33%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 91.86 -2.01%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 304.25 -5.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.39 -1.38%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 206.78 +.87%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.15 +.10%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 20.25 +1.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -44.50 +3.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.18 -.46%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.32% unch.
  • Yield Curve 28.25 +1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 71.90 USD/Metric Tonne -.69%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.4 +6.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.6 -3.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.80 -5.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 unch.
  • 74.2% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 75.3% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -10 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +146 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +20 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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