Monday, October 15, 2018

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Geopolitical Concerns, Yen Strength, Earnings Jitters, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.01 -6.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.79 -.09%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.23 -2.48%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.21 -.76%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 -7.06%
  • Total Put/Call .94 -19.66%
  • NYSE Arms .83 +10.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.10 +.90%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 404.0 +.40%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.57 -.33%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 304.25 -3.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.85 +.41%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 201.91 -2.08%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.41 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.25 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -46.75 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.93 +.43%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.27% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 30.25 +.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 69.04 USD/Metric Tonne -.04%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.4 -3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.6 +2.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.6 -.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 +1.0 basis point
  • 77.2% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 78.3% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +134 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +83 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/retail sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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