Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Fears, Fed Rate-Hike Concerns, Oil Decline, Homebuilding/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.25 +3.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.63 -.37%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.49 -1.96%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.68 +2.77%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +14.1%
  • Total Put/Call 1.11 +7.8%
  • NYSE Arms .74 -16.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.17 +.14%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 407.0 +.32%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.75 +.83%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 308.75 +12.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.71 -.51%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 198.14 +.49%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.11 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.5 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -46.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.38 +.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.30% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 29.75 +.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 72.02 USD/Metric Tonne -.69%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.6 -2.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -29.8 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.8 +.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 unch.
  • 80.7% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 81.3% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +69 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -36 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/retail/tech  sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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