Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Short-Coverig, Technical Buying, Yen Weakness, Retail/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.6 -4.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.29 +.30%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.94 -1.19%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.33 +8.25%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +31.5%
  • Total Put/Call 1.17 -7.1%
  • NYSE Arms .62 -38.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.98 -.93%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 520.0 +4.29%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.75 +.61%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 310.0 +14.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.55 +1.05%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 205.97 -.98%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.0 -.16%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -48.0 +1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.49 +.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.32% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 26.75 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 74.14 USD/Metric Tonne -1.15%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.0 +.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.3 -14.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.90 +1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 unch.
  • 71.8% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 72.3% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +36 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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