Monday, October 08, 2018

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on European/Emerging Market/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Yen Strength, Technical Selling, Tech/Medical Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.6 +11.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.01 -.92%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.56 -3.91%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.08 -.93%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 75.0 -2.6%
  • Total Put/Call 1.20 +.84%
  • NYSE Arms .48 -39.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.61 +.60%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 389.0 +.55%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.51 +2.83%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 304.0 +19.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.85 +1.08%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 212.18 unch.
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.63 -.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 20.0 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.0 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.16 +.04%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.21% unch.
  • Yield Curve 34.75 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 68.84 USD/Metric Tonne +1.16%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.9 +.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -29.2 +.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.2 +.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 unch.
  • 76.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 78.3% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -190 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -57 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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