Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Seven Key Issues to Determine Success of U.S.-China Trade Talks.  

• China’s Latest Move to Cushion Its Economy Won’t Be the Last, Economists Say.

• May Fights for Brexit Deal, Warns of Second Referendum Risk.

• Germany Seeks U.S. Assistance After Hacking Breach: Report. 

• Stocks in Asia Rise on Fed, China Policy Boost. Stocks across Asia kicked off the week with strong gains after soothing Federal Reserve comments and an easing of monetary policy in China triggered a renewed appetite for risk assets. Treasuries steadied after Friday’s slide and oil extended its recent rebound. Shares in Japan led the charge, with advances also in Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia. U.S. futures climbed, signaling Friday’s rally in U.S. stocks could continue. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said policy is flexible and officials are “listening carefully” to financial markets, while the People’s Bank of China cut the required reserves for banks. Australian bond yields surged after the yield on 10-year Treasuries soared back to 2.67 percent on Friday. Sentiment may also be helped as the U.S. and China reopen trade talks. Japan’s Topix index rose 3.2 percent as of 10:34 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 1.4 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.5 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.5 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 gained 0.5 percent.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects This Year.

• Goldman Says to Bet on Weaker U.S. Dollar After Powell Comments.   

• Markets Are Too Bearish Given Robust Economy, UBS's Weber Says.

• Pelosi and Democratic Leaders Tread Carefully on Impeachment.  

• Bridgewater's Pure Alpha Fund Returned 14.6% Last Year.

Wall Street Journal:

• White House Signals Flexibility on Concrete Border Wall.

• A Soda Tax and Consequences.

• Trade Tensions Take a Toll on China’s Economy.

• Among the Growing Risks Investors Are Assessing: Their Own Fear.

• Bolton Says U.S. Withdrawal From Syria Is Conditional.

• Have I Got a Fund For You! Why Brokers Push Some Investments.

Fox News:

• GOP's Scalise halts tax debate with Ocasio-Cortez after 'radical followers' tweet about shooting.

• Trump digs out old Obama, Clinton comments to boost his push for wall.

CNBC:

• Here’s what Wall Street bankers think Apple should buy, if Tim Cook decides to go deal hunting.

• These 9 retail brands are the ones to watch in 2019.

Zero Hedge:         

• Key Democrat Admits Trump Has Authority To Declare National Emergency To Build Wall.

• Did China Just Hint At A New "Shanghai Accord"?

• "China, China, China" - Acting US SecDef Succinctly Summarizes World's Biggest Threat.

• Schumer Snubs Trump "Wall" Memes As White House Offers "Fence" Compromise.

• The Steele Dossier Was Planned As Hillary's Insurance Policy.

• Cuban Crickets Blamed For Brain-Melting Sonic Embassy Attacks.

• More "Project Fear": May Warns 'No Deal' Brexit Would Leave UK In "Uncharted Territory".

• "The Criminals Who Run The Deep State Will Be Exposed": Kim Dotcom Teases "Next Round Of Leaks".

• Clinton Crony Says Bernie Supporters Must Be Silenced For 2020 Primaries.

• Iran And Russia To Hold Joint Naval Exercises In Caspian Sea.

• Macron's Approval Rating Shrinks To 25% Despite Concessions To Protesters.

• Mass Exodus: More People Left New Jersey Than Any Other State In 2018.

• A Visual History Of The 20 Internet Giants That Ruled The Web From 1998 To 2018.

• Global Housing Markets From Hong Kong To Sydney Join Global Rout.

Business Insider:

• 'This isn't a done deal': New York City Council speaker Corey Johnson lays out his plan to avoid being 'played' by Amazon.

• San Francisco prices are so out of control that one hotel is charging the equivalent of $21.25 for a cup of coffee during a JPMorgan conference.

• Nancy Pelosi defended Rashida Tlaib after the freshman congresswoman said Democrats would 'impeach the motherf---er' in reference to Trump.

• Warren Buffett may be getting ready to pounce on more Apple(AAPL) shares.

• The blowout jobs report seems to 'make a mockery' of recession fears, economist says.

• Artificial intelligence will be a major theme at the world's largest tech show next week.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +1.0% to +2.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.0 -5.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index n/a.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.95 +.18%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.21%.

• S&P 500 futures +.36%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.38%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (CMC)/.35

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Dec. is estimated to fall to 59.5 versus 60.7 in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US/China trade talks, China Trade Data report, Eurozone Retail Sales report, CES 2019 and the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.