Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, China Trade War Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.0 +12.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.02 -.43%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.07 -1.09%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.96 +1.74%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 69.0 +6.15%
  • Total Put/Call .91 +9.64%
  • NYSE Arms 1.56 +178.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.02 +3.72%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 711.0 +.21%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 95.82 +4.94%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 250.5 +3.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.83 +1.12%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 184.75 +2.63%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 154.40 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 36.75 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.0 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.67 -.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.40% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 15.5 -1.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 72.41 USD/Metric Tonne +.15%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.80 +1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -71.0 +10.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.6 +6.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.79 -3.0 basis points
  • .5% chance of Fed rate hike at March 20th meeting, 4.6% chance at May 1st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -217 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -53 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -64 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my tech/medical/retail/biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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