Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Tech/Restaurant Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.33 -2.16%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.66 +.41%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.01 -.99%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.89 -1.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 52.0 -14.74%
  • Total Put/Call 1.19 +30.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.06 -41.99%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.82 -.38%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 725.0 +1.95%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.90 -3.04%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 252.75 +2.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.77 +.79%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 179.55 -2.73%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 154.78 +.24%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 35.75 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.93 +.38%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.40% unch.
  • Yield Curve 16.5 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 74.45 USD/Metric Tonne +.81%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.10 -.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -70.0 +1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.3 -.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.79 unch.
  • 2.6% chance of Fed rate hike at March 20th meeting, 6.6% chance at May 1st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -73 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +19 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -26 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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