Tuesday, January 08, 2019

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Transport/Gaming Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.3 -4.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.18 -.35%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.42 -.11%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.71 +1.25%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 54.0 -48.6%
  • Total Put/Call .92 +3.37%
  • NYSE Arms 1.38 +39.39%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.57 -2.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 748.0 -4.26%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 109.43 -1.83%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 272.75 +5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.48 -3.35%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 194.03 +1.58%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 153.57 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.25 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 39.25 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.50 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.67 -.33%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.44% +4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 13.5 -2.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 73.06 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.0 +3.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -84.9 -14.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.0 -1.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.82 +4.0 basis points
  • 9.1% chance of Fed rate hike at March 20th meeting, 14.7% chance at May 1st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +131 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +85 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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