Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Worries, Earnings Jitters, Technical Selling, Tech/Retail Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.14 +1.43%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.92 +.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 -.66%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.57 -1.59%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 +14.3%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -17.5%
  • NYSE Arms .96 -19.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.96 +.06%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 705.0 +.56%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.82 -1.96%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 243.25 -2.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.63 +.50%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 180.99 +.64%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 155.62 +.18%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.50 unch.
  • TED Spread 36.25 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.18 +.20%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.41% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 14.25 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 82.80 USD/Metric Tonne +5.28%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index .2 -.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -81.5 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.6 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.77 unch.
  • 1.0% chance of Fed rate hike at March 20th meeting, 5.0% chance at May 1st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -19 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -47 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -2 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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