Wednesday, January 09, 2019

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, More Dovish FOMC Commentary, Oil Gain, Homebuilding/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.0 -2.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.92 +.47%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.54 +1.17%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.47 -2.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +69.5%
  • Total Put/Call .94 unch.
  • NYSE Arms .60 -53.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 78.55 -.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 733.0 -3.33%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 106.0 -3.13%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 260.0 -12.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.35 -2.67%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 190.56 -1.62%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 153.53 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.5 +1.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 36.0 -3.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 4.75 +3.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.0 +.44%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.44% unch.
  • Yield Curve 16.75 +3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 72.24 USD/Metric Tonne -.56%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.50 +.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -84.2 +.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.3 -.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.83 +1.0 basis point
  • 4.7% chance of Fed rate hike at March 20th meeting, 10.6% chance at May 1st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -47 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +91 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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