Thursday, January 31, 2019

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Optimism, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Healthcare/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.83 -4.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.50 -.46%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.84 -1.34%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.49 -.96%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 +39.1%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -6.82%
  • NYSE Arms 1.41 +50.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.71 -4.30%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 677.0 -2.35%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.32 -4.75%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 244.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.0 -3.95%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 171.16 -2.79%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 155.92 +.16%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.5 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 35.0-1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.92 +.53%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.39% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 16.75 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 82.55 USD/Metric Tonne +.36%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.50 +1.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -82.6 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.4 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.85 +1.0 basis point
  • 0.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, .2% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -28 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +99 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

No comments: