Thursday, January 17, 2019

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Optimism, Less European/Emerging Market/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Transport/Industrial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.1 -4.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.29 +.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.37 +.11%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.59 +.02%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +20.5%
  • Total Put/Call .84 -21.5%
  • NYSE Arms .62 -42.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.25 -1.42%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 730.0 -.63%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.13 -.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 252.25 -.75 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.52 +.18%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 185.99 -2.08%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 154.23 +.17%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 37.75 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 0.0 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.03 -.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.40% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 18.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 73.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.45%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.20 +2.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -83.2 +1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.6 -1.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.82 unch.
  • .5% chance of Fed rate hike at March 20th meeting, 4.6% chance at May 1st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +113 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +120 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/retail/biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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