Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.25 -2.25 basis points

• China Sovereign CDS 43.5 -2.0 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.04 -.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.51%.

• S&P 500 futures +.66%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.97%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (CALM)/.52

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Jan. 

• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.9% gain in Jan.

• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.2% gain in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Manufacturing Index for March is estimated to rise to 54.5 versus 54.2 in Feb. 

• The ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to rise to 52.5 versus 49.4 in Feb.

• Construction Spending MoM for Feb. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +1.3% gain in Jan.

• Business Inventories for Jan. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI/CPI reports could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.5 -1.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 45.5 +.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.06 +.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.30%.

• S&P 500 futures +.20%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BB)/.06
• (KMX)/.03

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.1% decline in Jan.
• Personal Spending for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.5% decline in Jan.
• The PCE Core MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Jan.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for March is estimated to fall to 61.0 versus 64.7 in Feb.

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Feb. are estimated to rises to 620K versus 607K in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Quarles speaking, Eurozone CPI report, Brexit Deadline and the Amer. Assoc.  for Cancer Research annual meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Diminished Global Growth Fears, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Transport/Gaming Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.0 -1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.02 -.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.52 +3.25%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.37 -1.8%

• ISE Sentiment Index 63.0 -28.4%
  

• Total Put/Call .89 -13.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.01 -40.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.83 -2.1%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 529.0 +.38%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.96 +.65%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 255.5 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.84 -.25%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 183.70 -2.14%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 160.90 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.25 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 18.0 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.5 -2.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.09 -.18%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% unch.

• Yield Curve 15.25 -1.25 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 82.25 USD/Metric Tonne -.53%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -40.0 +.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -58.70 -4.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -17.20 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.83 -1.0 basis point
• 28.2% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 36.7% chance of cut at July 31st meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +172 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +47 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/retail/medical/biotech/tech

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver-3.0% 2) Homebuilding -1.5% 3) Utilities -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WBC, NLSN, RBZ, TIGR, YETI, KL, SCVL, WIFI, CIM and NSTG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AET 2) NLSN 3) CNC 4) PZZA 5) RH

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ARA 2) OSMT 3) PRTO 4) EGY 5) NLSN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Tobacco +1.4% 2) Gaming +1.2% 3) Alt Energy +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• QTNA, TCDA, LULU, VRNT, PVH, FIVE, MOV, VFF, AUTL, GTHX, WCG, AMRN, ACN, IYT, TREX, ACIA, ALKS, UBNT, OLLI, ABMD, TTD, TDOC, CNST, FTDR, SNX, FIVE, CCXI and TREX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KNX 2) ARCC 3) TMUS 4) FIVE 5) XRT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PVH 2) LULU 3) MOV 4) VRNT 5) FIVE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 61.7% of Issues Advancing, 34.5% Declining
• 84 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 45.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.5%
• Vix 14.9 -1.7%
• Total Put/Call .82 -20.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.41 -17.1%