Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• Biden Seeks to Temper Remark on Putin as U.S. Allies Object.
• Ukraine Update: Kyiv Says In-Person Talks to Resume in Turkey.  
• Russian Tankers Going Dark Raises Flags on Sanctions Evasion.
• Germany Weighing Missile-Defense Shield Made in U.S. or Israel.
• China Stirs Unease for ESG Managers Blindsided by Russia’s War.   
• Shanghai to Lock Down Half City in Turns for Mass Covid Test.  
• Tesla to Suspend Production at Shanghai Plant on Virus Curbs.
  
• Mounting Fed Bets, War Uncertainty Put Spotlight on Battered Yen.  
• A World That’s More Expensive Is Starting to Destroy Demand.  
• Bonds Slide, U.S. Equity Futures Dip; Crude Drops: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Falls as China’s Virus Flare-Up Worsens, Yemeni Rebels Pause.
• ‘The Morgan Stanley Fade’: U.S. Probe Dredges Up Years of Animus.
• Fed’s Best Hope Increasingly Looks Like a ‘Semi-Hard’ Landing.
• U.S. Big Cap Stocks Turn Into World’s Top Haven as Risk Rises.  
• California Grocery Workers Authorize Strike as Talks Continue.  
• Biden to Propose 20% Tax Aimed at Billionaires, Unrealized Gains.

Wall Street Journal:

• Ukraine Seeks to Exploit Shift in Russia’s Military Strategy.
• Latest Updates: Blinken Says U.S. Isn’t Pursuing Regime Change in Russia.
• Teens Are Still Getting TikTok-Related Tics and Other Disorders.
• ‘There Is No Fear’: A Ukrainian Mother Risks All to Retrieve Her Son.
• Photos Chronicle Mariupol Devastation.
• Riskiest Bets in Stock Market Are Most Popular.
• Oil Prices Stay High as Russian Crude Shortage Hits Market.
• Ukraine War Drives Up Cost of Wind, Solar Power.
• Chain Reaction: Why Global Supply Chains May Never Be the Same.
• Inflation Gets Starring Role in GOP Campaign Ads.
• Volkswagen Prepares for a Deglobalized World.
• Capital Spending Boom Helps Raise Productivity, Contain Costs.

Fox News:   

• Republicans demand accountability after report reveals staggering extent of FBI rule breaking.
• DAY 32 LIVE UPDATES: Blinken walks back Biden's Putin comments.
• White House plotting a new tax to pay for Biden's spending.
• Biden completely changes his tune one day after saying 'butcher' Putin 'cannot remain in power'.

CNBC:

• Blinken says U.S. is not seeking regime change; Russia may be trying to encircle troops in east Ukraine.
• Britain will reveal crypto regulation plans in coming weeks, sources say.
• Top Wall Street analysts see long-term upside in these stocks even amid investor uncertainty.
• Xi’s gamble on Putin may be the most dangerous and short-sighted of his nine years in power.

Zero Hedge:

• After Biden Sparks "Global Uproar" With Regime Change Comment, Blinken Awkwardly Tries To Walk It Back.
• Biden Says "Butcher" Putin "Cannot Remain In Power" In Call For Regime Change In Russia.
• FDA Tells Doctors In 8 States To Stop Using COVID-19 Treatment. 
• "The Morgan Stanley Fade" - Clients Who Felt Cheated By Bank's Block Trading Business Seize Opportunity For Revenge.
• Stockman: How The C-Suite Embraced Lockdowns And Economic War.
• RV Shipments Soar To Record For This Time Of Year.
• Nava Capital: Fasten Your Seat Belts.
• Daniel Lacalle: Why High Energy Prices Are Here To Stay.
• Volcker Caused A Recession To Bring Down Soaring Inflation; Powell Hopes To Achieve The Same Without A Recession.
• Elon Musk Teases Launching New 'Free Speech' Social Media Platform.
• Farmers On The Brink.
• Iran Calls Nuclear Deal "Imminent" While US Envoy Rejects Assessment, Saying "Not Confident".
• Goldman Trader: This Rally Is Nothing But A Huge Bear Market Squeeze; Stocks Will Be Lower "Over The Next Few Weeks".
• Biden Admin's Nuclear Deal: "This Isn't Obama's Iran Deal. It's Much, Much Worse.".
• Bear! The biggest bubble is deflating right in front of our eyes.
• A Manufactured World Crisis?
• Nightmare Scenario: Operational Miscalculations Could Trigger Nuclear War.
• "It's Become A Real Hindrance": Neighbors Complain About Bill Gates' Sprawling $43 Million Mansion Rebuild In San Diego.
• Why Surging Energy Prices Won't Save America's Oil 'Boom Towns' From Becoming 'Ghost Towns'.
• USA Today Defends Brown Jackson's Inability To Define "Woman".
• White House Unveils 20% "Billionaire Minimum Tax" Proposal In 2023 Budget.
• How Bill Barr's Silence Impacted The Outcome Of An Election.

NewsMax:

• Donald Trump: Biden's Leadership One 'Train Wreck' After Another.
• Gen. Holt: Growing Lack of Global Respect 'Imperils' US at Home.  
• Bolton: Iran Nuke Deal Should Face Review in Congress. 
• Goya Foods CEO: Closing Keystone Pipeline, COVID Lockdowns 'Big Mistake'.  
• NBC Poll: 7 in 10 Americans Have Low Confidence in Biden.
• Ukrainian Official: Russia Putting Ukrainians Into Camps, Like 'Nazi Germany'.
• Rep. Tenney: 'Common Sense' to Increase Oil Supply.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• WATCH: Fox News Host Says He is Hearing That Hunter Biden Will Be Indicted.
• EXCLUSIVE: Russia Sold Its Stake in Uranium One Shortly Before Invading Ukraine – The Same Company Clintons Helped Turn Over to Russians.
• Alaska Hands Over Elections to Corrupt Democrats – Upcoming Election Will Have All Mail-In Ballots and No Signature Check.
• EXCLUSIVE: Hunter Biden Was Accessing Defense Department Systems and His Government Password Was His Favorite Men’s Clothing Store in Beverly Hills.
• Bill Gates Says Rich Nations “Should Move to 100% Synthetic Beef” In Order to Fight Climate Change – “You Can Get Used to The Taste Difference”.
• Latest CDC Data Shows That Vaccinated Children Aged 5-11 Are Now MORE Likely to Catch Covid Than Their Unvaccinated Peers.
• “We Live in a Time of Utter Madness and We’re Ruled by Lawless Monsters” – Michele Bachmann at Jerusalem Prayer Breakfast.
• Trump Now Leads by Double Digits in a State Biden Took in 2020.
• California Gov. Gavin Newsom Appoints First Openly Transgender Judge to Bench.
• DEVASTATING! President Trump Lays Out the Voter Fraud in Georgia from 2020 Election during Commerce, GA Speech (VIDEO).
• New Polling Shows That Almost 1/4 of DEMOCRAT Voters Believe Biden Would Not Be President Today if The Media Had Fully Reported About Hunter’s ‘Laptop from Hell’. 

GETTR: 

• @VigilantFox - The Government and Corporations Will Know You Better Than You Know Yourself - Yuval Noah Harari "Are we close or at the point when Huawei or Facebook or the government or whoever can systematically HACK millions of people meaning, knowing them better than they know themselves? They know more about me than I know about myself, about my medical condition, about my mental weaknesses, about my life history. Once you reach that point, the implication is that they can predict and manipulate my decisions better than [I can]." (video) "Would Have Been Illegal" - RFK Jr. Explains Why Fauci Had Such a Problem With Early Treatment. (video) Macron Has an Opponent - Supporters of Éric Zemmour Turn Paris Into a Sea of Red, White, and Blue. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 795,782 Reports(+7,159 from prior week) Through March 18th, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.5 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 61.75 +.75 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.47 +.13%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,283.0 -43.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.8 +1.5%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%.
• S&P 500 futures -.24%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (PLAY)/.61
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Balance report for Feb. is estimated at -$106.3B versus -$107.6B in Jan.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +.8% gain in Jan.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +1.2% gain in Jan.
  

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for March is estimated to fall to 10.0 versus 14.0 in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Unemployment Rate, 2Y/5Y T-Note auctions and the Maxim Group Virtual Growth Conference could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.