Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine War Escalation Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Concerns, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 29.3 -3.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,792.0 +28.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.64 +.20%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.9 +1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.9 +1.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .96 +4.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.32 +85.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.34 +1.78%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 415.54 +.7%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 91.92 +.57%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 160.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.65 +.94%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 344.80 +2.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.8 -.28% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 5,704.0 -.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.5 -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 42.75 -1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.25 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  109.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 50.71 -.21%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.40 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .38% +2.25 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 25.25 -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 157.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 54.3 -1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 60.5 -.2 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.1 -4.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.98 +10.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 83 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.0%(n/a) of 1/14 peak -na/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -86.4%(-na percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -127 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -223 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -36 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long