Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Diminished Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.2 +4.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,275.0 -301.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.83 -.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.6 -3.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 37.0 +7.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 +7.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.8 +43.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.39 +.34%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 358.11 -.28%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.93 -.52%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 149.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.7 +1..6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 227.64 +.85%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.68 +1.17% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 2,792.09 +3.1%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 50.0 +6.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.75 +1.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  110.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.89 +.12%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.76 +.07%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .50% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 2.0 -.5 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 161.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.4 -3.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 44.8 -.2 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.4 -.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.90 +1.0 basis point
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 63 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +1/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -92.7%(-.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -121 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -73 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -14 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my commodity/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long