Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Fed "Behind the Curve" Fears, Diminishing Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.6 +3.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,652.0 +123.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.02 -.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.5 +.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.6 +3.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 456.0 +346.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .83 +6.4%

• NYSE Arms .99 -22.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.06 +12.0% (March contract roll)
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.5  -3.9%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.21 +10.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.60 +5.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 233.92 -16.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.83 +.86% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 4,051.60 +1.8%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 +1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 56.5 +4.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  111.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.91 -.91%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.89 -.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .46% +7.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 25.25 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 149.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.2 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.2 -1.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.3 -2.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.94 +4.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 72 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -90.2%(-1.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +288 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long