Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Diminished Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.3 +2.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,555.0 -40.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.02 -.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 -1.96%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 35.0 +4.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .77 -17.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.3 +27.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.28 -4.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 358.65 +.53%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.35 +1.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 148.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.50 -3.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 226.40 +3.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.4 -.20% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 2,708.35 +7.2%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 44.5 +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  109.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.58 +.08%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.68 +.39%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .52% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 2.5 -1.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 160.6 USD/Metric Tonne +4.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 59.1 -.4 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 45.0 +11.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.9 -.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.89 +1.0 basis point
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 62 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -92.6%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -92 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -68 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -59 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my commodity sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long