Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Ukraine Faces More Brutal Form of War as Russia Regroups.
  
• Ukraine War Bonds That Pay 11% Are a Risky Bet Investors Want to Buy.
• U.S. to Bar Russia Flights; United Reroutes Jets: Ukraine Update.  
• Whether They Back War or Not, Russian Billionaires Hit by EU.
• Australia’s Economy Rebounds on Consumer Spending Bonanza.  
• U.K. Consumers Told to Brace for Further Price Increases.
• Most Asian Stocks Fall as Oil’s Surge Dims Outlook: Markets Wrap.
  
• Oil Pushes Higher Before OPEC+ Meeting as IEA Warns of Crisis.
  
• OPEC Output Rose Last Month Amid Recovery in Embattled Libya.
  
• Commodities Jump Most Since 2009 as Ukraine War Threatens Supply.  
• Hackers Stole Nvidia Data, Posted It Online.  
• U.S. Beef Prices Are Set to Rise Further as Ranchers’ Costs Soar. 
• Alcoa CEO Affirms Promise of No New Aluminum Smelters.  
• Growth Angst Shakes Markets Already Obsessed With Inflation Risk.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russia Targets Ukrainian Civilian Areas in Tactical Shift.
• Live Updates.
• Russia Scrambles to Maintain Oil Sales, Lifeblood of Economy.
• Food Shortages, Last Goodbyes: Ukrainians Face Their New Reality.
• U.S. Says It Is Realigning Its China Trade Policy.
• Car Dealerships Don’t Want Your Cash—They Want to Give You a Loan.
• The Teen Who Tracks Musk’s Plane Is Now Monitoring Russian Oligarchs, Putin.
• A Lesson in Energy Masochism. Here’s how Europe made itself vulnerable to Putin’s gas blackmail.
• Jonesing to Give Up Russian Oil. Hawaii imports Moscow crude, and the Jones Act is one bad reason why. 

Fox News:  

• Massive Russian convoy spotted outside Kyiv as Ukraine and Russia continue battling for sixth day.
• Jill Biden's State of the Union guest supports critical race theory.

CNBC.com:

• Nordstrom stock spikes 35% as retailer makes key strides in its off-price Rack business, issues strong guidance.
• Salesforce reports better-than-expected earnings and revenue, issues upbeat guidance.
• MLB cancels Opening Day and some regular-season games after owners fail to reach deal with players.
• Target thinks it can keep growing sales — here’s how the retailer plans to do it.
• With inflation and Ukraine, Powell must thread a needle on Capitol Hill this week to calm markets.
• First Solar shares sink after revenue miss, disappointing guidance.

MarketWatch:   

• Fiona Hill warns Putin would use nuclear weapons: ‘If he has an instrument, he wants to use it’.
• Rivian raises EV prices, citing inflation, supply-chain problems.
• Mastercard says about 4% of its revenue was related to Russia in 2021.
• Exxon Mobil to exit major Russian venture, will not invest in new developments.

Zero Hedge:

• "Game Over?" - Russia To Be In Technical Default Within Hours.
• "The Market Is Starting To Fail": Buyers Balk At Russian Oil Purchases Despite Record Discounts, Sanction Carve Outs.
• Is COVID Policy Comedy, Tragedy, Or Both?
• Apple, Ford Lead Latest Round Of US Companies Cutting Russia Ties.
• Ukraine's 2nd Largest City Pummeled Under Russian Strikes As Calls For Western Intervention Grow.
• The Real State Of The Union.
• New Yorkers Lash Out At ConEdison Over Soaring Electricity Bills.
• Summers: Biden Needs To Pivot From COVID, Prepare America For 'Struggle Ahead'.
• GM Sold Their 7.5 Million Share Stake In Lordstown Motors In Q4.
• "We May Have To Supply Europe": Lawmakers Pressure Biden To Halt Russian Oil Imports, Boost Production.
• Tanker Rates On Russian Crude Route Soars Nine-fold In Three Days.
• WTI Extends Gains After Huge Surprise Crude Draw.
• Panic Tuesday - vol explosions, evaporated liquidity and VaR shocks.
• Stocks Slammed As Bonds, Bitcoin, Bullion, & Black Gold Soar.

Newsmax:  

• GOP Slams Biden for Not Halting Russian Oil.  
• Ban on Russian Flights From US Airspace Imminent: Sources.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• “No One Is Going to Break Us. We’re Strong. We’re Ukrainians” – Ukrainian President Zelensky Receives Standing Ovation After Addressing the European Union from Kiev (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: Wisconsin Special Counsel Michael Gableman Calls for Decertification of Wisconsin 2020 Election Results (VIDEO).
• Pelosi Claims Americans Have a Low Opinion of Joe Biden Because They are Ignorant (VIDEO)
• St. Louis Welcomes US Trucker Convoy on Way to Indianapolis – Huge Crowds at Overpasses.
• BODY CAM FOOTAGE: Dominion Executive Eric Coomer Cuffed and Arrested in Colorado – Video Appears to Show He Drove Truck into Bar, Fled the Scene and Lied to Police.
• Facebook’s Zuckerberg’s Election Money Violated Bribery Laws – Former Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Shares from His Investigation of 2020 Election.
• BOOM! Wisconsin Special Counsel Implicates Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe and ERIC’s David Becker in Wisconsin Election Fraud Investigation.
• Too Bad for Ukraine — Joe Biden Left $84 Billion in US Arms to Taliban Terrorists in Afghanistan During Surrender — Only a Few Million for Zelensky.
• EXPLOSIVE: Justice Gableman Reveals MASSIVE Voter Fraud in Wisconsin Nursing Homes — 100% Turnout in Zuckerberg-Funded Wisconsin Cities! – SHOCKING VIDEO.
• Steve Cortes: “Chance of Nuclear Episode Higher than Any Time since Cuban Missile Crisis – We Have Dropped a Financial Dirty Bomb on the Russian People” (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• ‘None of Us Should Ever Buy Another Product Made in Communist China’: Sen. Scott on Holding CCP Accountable for Abuses.

Twitter: 

• @aginnt - The US Freedom Convoy. (video) 
• @zerohedge - "They Actually Want Russia To Invade" - Beijing Slams Biden For Allegedly Provoking Putin. These Are The Global Banks With The Largest Exposures To Russian Sanctions.
• @StateOfUkraine - As a result of shelling of Kharkiv, #Ukraine city where Russians expected an easy victory due to support from the population, dozens civilians were injured, inc. a woman's leg was torn off, at least 11 died. #Russia is successfully destroying any pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine. (video)
  
• @JohnnyMercerUK - No expert, but the invasion doesn’t seem to be going particularly well. Ukrainian tractor steals Russian APC today. (video)
• @MerissaHansen17 - This is extremely alarming.
• @The_Real_Fly - SCENE IN UKRAINE. (video) NOT A MOVIE — SCENE IN UKRAINE. (video)
  

GETTR:

• @DiscloseTV - NEW - England revokes Covid vaccination as a condition of deployment across all health and social care.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 767,082 Reports(+6,981 from prior week) Through February 18th, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.25 +1.0 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 61.5 -1.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.18 -.09%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,410.0 +68.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.2 -1.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.09%.

• S&P 500 futures +.34%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ANF)/1.27
• (DLTR)/1.77
• (DCI)/.62
• (DY)/-.09
• (KFY)/1.48
• (PDCO)/.50
  

After the Close:

• (AEO)/.35
• (PLAN)/-.10
• (BOX)/.23
• (AI)/-.26
• (CHPT)/.16
• (OKTA)/-.24
• (SPLK)/-.20
• (VSCO)/2.63
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Feb. is estimated to rise to 375K versus -301K in Jan.
  

2:00 pm EST

• US Fed Beige Book release.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell testifying to House, German retail sales report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, BofA Ag/Materials Conference, (C) investor day and the (XOM) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.