Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine War Escalation Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Concerns, Rising European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Financial/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 32.7 +7.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,413.0 -362.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.08 -1.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 +6.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 49.9 +4.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -13.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +1.1%

• NYSE Arms .86 -14.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.28 +4.99%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 417.09 +3.3%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.24 +13.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 161.0 +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.82 +1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 324.21 +8.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.62 -1.3% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 8,219.0 +37.8%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.25 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 27.75 +9.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.75 -17.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  107.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.47 +.49%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.19 -1.9%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .31% -3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 25.75 -12.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 160.15 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 59.10 +17.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 66.1 -3.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.7 +4.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 unch.
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 118 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -6/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -81.4%(-1.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -220 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -101 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -20 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long