Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine War Escalation Fears, China Bubble-Bursting Concerns, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Commodity/Technology Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 33.5 +5.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,680.0 +20.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.33 +1.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 13.3 +2.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.9 +5.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .95 -9.5%

• NYSE Arms .97 -32.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.14 +2.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 419.62 +.58%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.92 -1.09%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 159.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.80 +5.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 340.74 -1.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.3 -1.6% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 8,219.0 +37.8%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.25 +1.75 basis points
  

• TED Spread 47.0 +4.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.0 +2.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  113.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 50.54 -.37%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.85 +.63%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .38% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 24.5 -.75 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 145.5 USD/Metric Tonne -6.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 54.6 +.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 59.7 -.8 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.6 -1.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.96 -2.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 75 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -8/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -88.6%(-2.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -282 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -339 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -101 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long