Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Above-Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 29.4 -4.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,874.0 +44.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.47 -.56%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 +.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.4 -4.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 -11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .90 -4.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.14 +107.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.79 +.05%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 406.65 +.59%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.56 +.59%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 155.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.08 +.17%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 297.08 +3.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.99 -.86% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 8,219.0 +37.8%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 18.75 +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 +4.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  108.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.21 -.2%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.13 -.75%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .34% +3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 38.5 -.75 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 161.25 USD/Metric Tonne +7.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.0 -4.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 69.2 -3.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.0 -.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 unch.
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 124 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.0%(-2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -80.0%(-.7 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -197 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -57 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -18 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long