Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Biden’s Middle East Mission Unraveling After Deadly Hospital Blast.
• US Puts 2,000 Troops on Higher Alert as Israel Readies Assault.
• Fate of 200 Hostages Taken by Hamas Hinges on Qatar’s Diplomacy.
• US Says China Has Stepped Up ‘Risky’ Behavior in South China Sea.
• Raids, Arrests Send Chill Through Indian Media Ahead of Vote.
• Asia Stocks Eye Gains; Bonds Sink on Fed Rate Bets: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Rallies as Gaza Hospital Blast Ratchets Up Regional Tensions.
• X to Test Charging Users $1 a Year to Reduce Spam, Bot Accounts.
• UPenn Donors Pile Pressure on School as David Magerman Pulls Support.
• AI Startup Wants to Make Sure Chatbots Don’t Tell People How to Vote. 
• Nvidia Warns of Product Snags From US Tightening Export Rules. 
• US Regulator Pledges Harsher Punishment for Wall Street Misdeeds.

Zero Hedge:

• Arab Leaders Refuse To Meet Biden, Jordan Trip Canceled, Protesters Surround US Embassy In Beirut.
• First Speaker Vote A Bust As Jordan Loses 20 Republicans.
• Pro-Hamas Groups Push Critical Race Theory, Socialism In US.
• Top Japanese Energy Trader Warns 'World Running Short Of LNG For Energy Transition' .
• DeSantis Draws Red Line On Gaza Refugees, GOP Field Follows Suit (Except Nikki Haley).
• Meat-Giant Tyson Foods Reveals New Insect Plant In 2025.
• Green Movement Still Steamrolling Rational Resistance To Climate Chicanery.
• The Left's Cognitive Dissonance Crisis Exposed In One Tweet.
• Deaths Of Despair Afflict More Cohorts Than Case-Deaton Originally Found.
• These Are The Two Crash Hedges Recommended By BofA's Bearish Derivatives Desk.
• Zombie Firms: Navigating The Looming Threat Of Higher Interest Rates.
• US stocks finished mixed as participants digested firm data, earnings releases and geopolitical headlines - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "We Are Being Lied To": Marc Andreessen's Techno-Optimist Manifesto Warns Civilization Depends On More AI, Not Less.
• Biden Joins Truth Social, Immediately Gets Pummelled Into Oblivion.
• Latest Fund Manager Survey Finds "Notable Disconnect" Between Macro Views And US Stocks.
• Global Debt At Record Levels And The Free Lunch Is Over.
• WTI Extends Gains After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Draws.
• "Lower for longer" pain.
• The Triumph Of The Apocalyptics.
• Have Central Banks Lost Control Of The Gold Price?
• Treasury yields spike on hot retail sales with tech hit on fresh US export curbs - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• 'Seasonally-Adjusted' "Good News" Batters Bonds; Biden Bruises Big-Tech.

Wall Street Journal:

• Appeasing Iran Has Failed. Obama and Biden’s effort at détente with Tehran destabilized the entire region and emboldened Hamas.
• Hamas and Black Lives Matter in Chicago. Progressives disrupt the City Council to block a pro-Israel resolution. 
• Why It’s Obvious Iran Approved Hamas’s Attack. If you understand how the Islamic Republic’s power centers work, it becomes clear what happened. 
• Hamas War Shows Us What American Universities Stand For. Some students celebrate and many presidents equivocate. No wonder trust in higher ed is down. 
• Home Insurance Is So High in This Florida Town, Residents Are Leaving.
• Biden Trip to Mideast, on Heels of Deadly Hospital Bombing, Carries Risks for U.S. Policy.
• Goldman Sachs Reports 33% Profit Drop.
• U.S. Tightens Curbs on AI Chip Exports to China.
• Fed to Propose Lowering Debit-Card Swipe Fees.
• How Generative AI Will Change the Way You Use the Web, From Search to Shopping.
• Tech Leaders Discuss the World-Changing Risks, Weaknesses of AI.
• Trump Challengers Are Begging for Money but Big Donors Aren’t Giving.

CNBC.com:

• The world has to add or replace 50 million miles of transmission lines by 2040, IEA says.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: United Airlines, J.B. Hunt and more.
• Israel denies targeting Gaza hospital, Palestinian leader Abbas cancels meeting with Biden.
• United Airlines says pricier fuel, war in Middle East will weigh on profits.
• Roblox tells employees they have to come to office three days a week or take severance package.
• GM to delay all-electric truck production at Michigan plant until late-2025.
• How GenZ uses technology — flip phones, digital cameras, voice memos.

MarketWatch.com:

• Long-term U.S. Treasury yields may resume their march higher despite recent bond-market swings, BlackRock says.
• Wall Street’s biggest bear is standing by his call for stocks to slump 10% by January. Here are 4 charts that support his point.
• ‘Bears are back in town,’ pushing 10-year Treasury yield closer to 5% after U.S. data.
• 5 charts that show how the housing market crashed and burned in 18 months.

Newsmax:

• Wexner Foundation Cuts Ties With Harvard Over Silence.
• Jordan: Next Speaker Vote Wednesday After He Falls Short in First Round.
• Iran Warns of 'Preemptive' Strike Against Israel.

Fox News:

• Israel says Islamic Jihad's 'failed rocket launch' to blame for Gaza hospital explosion.
• Jordan cancels summit with Biden as conflict pushes region 'to the brink'.
• Top Israel official predicts US ‘involvement’ if Iran joins war.
• Victoria's Secret ditches prioritizing wokeness over 'sexiness' after sales drop.
• Rapper convicted of helping launder millions into Obama campaign makes new claim.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• UPDATE: Jim Jordan Loses Vote for House Speaker on the First Vote – Here are the 20 GOP Turncoats Who Voted Against Jordan in Leadership Role
• Judge Chutkan Releases Official Gag Order on Trump and It’s Worse Than We Thought
• Palestinian Leader, Jordan Cancel Planned Meeting with Joe Biden After Hospital Strike.
• Arkansas Leads the Charge: Gov. Sarah Sanders Mandates Chinese State-Owned Company to Sell its American Farmland (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: Former GOP Candidate for MI Gov. and Father of 5 Is Sentenced to Prison Because Obama-Appointed Judge Didn’t Believe He Was “Truly Remorseful” For His Non-Violent Jan 6 Misdemeanor Charge.
• Biden Regime Proposes Hefty $100 Billion Aid Package for Ukraine, Israel, and Allegedly for US Border.
• WORLD WAR III WATCH: Biden Mulls Military Response if Hezbollah Attacks Israel.
• NOW: Contact The 20 ‘Republicans’ Who Voted Against Jim Jordan BEFORE The Next Ballot.
• Gaetz: Hakeem Jeffries Not Really in Charge of Democrats, He’s Just the ‘Frontman’.
• 13 Far-Left Congressional Democrats Led by Black Lives Matter Activist Cori Bush Put Forth Sick Resolution Demanding Israel Stop Fighting Back Against Hamas Terrorists.
• RINO Don Bacon WILL NOT Vote for Jim Jordan on the House Floor: “I’m Not Budging, I’m a Five-Time Commander”
• Nikki Haley Argues to Bring One Million Hamas Supporting Palestinians to the US from Gaza – Where Over 68% of Population Supports Terror Strikes on Israel.
• Republicans Pounce After Kamala Harris Calls for “Assault Weapons” Ban of “Weapons of War” After Unarmed Israelis Massacred by Hamas.
• Billionaire and Democrat Voter Chamath Palihapitiya Changes Tune: Admits He Was Wrong About Trump, Says Trump Derangement Syndrome Did More Harm Than Trump Himself (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Shockwaves from China’s Real Estate Implosion Hit Steel and Cement Industries.
• China’s Diplomatic Wins in the Middle East.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 987,217 Reports(+1,799 from prior week) Through September 22nd, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.5 +1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 81.25 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 118.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.51%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.22 -.06%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.5 +3.1%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .00 -10.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.0 +2.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.34%.

• S&P 500 futures -.30%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.28%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Escalating Mid-East Regional War Worries, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Surging Long-Term Rates, Tech/Pharma Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.4 +1.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .86% +13.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 72.7 +2.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.7 +.32%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.39 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 25.1 +4.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 -5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 -13.0%

• NYSE Arms .66 +65.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.1 unch.
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 354.4 -.58%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 361 -3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.43 -.4% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 299.5 +.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 201.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.3 +.43%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 233.02 +.01%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 127.7 -1.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.78 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -12.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 17.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 186.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 909.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 88.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.3 -.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.49% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.5 +3.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -37.4 +4.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.4 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(39 of 500 reporting) +7.7% -4.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.22 -3.32:  Growth Rate +8.3% -.8 percentage point, P/E 18.5 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.27% +2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.38 +.10: Growth Rate +57.7% unch., P/E 28.6 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .13 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.20 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -37.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.15% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% -6.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 55.9%(-9.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 47.8%(-15.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -33 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -1.0% 2) Social Media -.9% 3) Pharma -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• VYX, SLAB, ARR, CALM, JD, HRZN, NVDA, BIDU, CLDX, RGEN, MRNA, COCO, CHH, VMW, NUVL, GOF, DXC, AMAM, PRTA and NTCT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RIO 2) VMW 3) HUYA 4) PZZA 5) KR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NTCT 2) LCID 3) VMW 4) AVGO 5) WDC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Regional Banks +2.7% 2) Alt Energy +2.3% 3) Retail +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• METC, ITOS, SAVA, VFC, WH, IDYA, VSAT, ACMR, FWRD, LNTH, ALKT, CIR, BK, COLD, SGH and HNRG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CL 2) CYTK 3) RIO 4) DXJ 5) VFC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VFC 2) METC 3) EPAC 4) MBWB 5) MNTS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABT)/1.10
• (ALLY)/.80
• (ASML)/4.92
• (MTB)/3.88
• (MS)/1.31
• (NDAQ)/.69
• (NTRS)/1.50
• (PG)/1.72
• (STT)/1.79
• (TRV)/2.99
• (USB)/.96
• (WGO)/1.36
  

After the Close: 

• (AA)/-1.06
• (CCI)/1.80
• (DFS)/3.18
• (EFX)/1.78
• (KMI)/.26
• (LRCX)/6.15
• (LVS)/.55
• (MRTN)/.18
• (NFLX)/3.49
• (PPG)/1.94
• (SLG)/1.26
• (STLD)/3.54
• (TSLA)/.72
• (ZION)/1.11
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST:

• Building Permits for Sept. is estimated to fall to 1453K versus 1541K in Aug.
• Housing Starts for Sept. is estimated to rise to 1383K versus 1283K in Aug.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +84,800 barrels versus a +10,176,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -627,400 barrels versus a -1,313,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,288,200 barrels versus a -1,837,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.1% versus a -1.6% decline prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• Fed's Beige Book report.

Upcoming Splits 

• (MLI) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Weller speaking, 20Y T-Bond auction, China GDP report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -11.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.0 -.2
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 68.4% of Issues Advancing, 29.3% Declining
• 42 New 52-Week Highs, 97 New Lows
• 36.1%(+4.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.0 +3
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.1 +1.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,999.7 -.8%
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.4 -13.0%
  
• Vix 17.3 +.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .95 -12.0%
• TRIN/Arms .45 +12.5%
  

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Iran Warns Expansion of Israel-Hamas War Becoming ‘Inevitable’.
• Israel Latest: Military in New Strike on Hezbollah Targets in Lebanon. 
• Country Garden Enters Final Hours to Avoid First Bond Default.
• Will Xi Jinping’s Gamble on Vladimir Putin Pay Off?
• Chinese Corporate Borrowing Slumped Last Quarter, China Beige Book Says.
• London Luxury Home Deals Set to Slump Deeper for Rest of Year.
• EU Fails to Set Date Ending Fossil Fuel Subsidies Before COP28.
• Asian Stocks Climb on Mideast Diplomacy Efforts: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Steadies as US Diplomatic Push Will Bring Biden to Israel.
• American Work-From-Home Rates Drop to Lowest Since the Pandemic.
• Real Estate Brokers Pocketing Up to 6% in Fees Draw Antitrust Scrutiny.
• Climate Tech Investing Slides More Than 40% Over Past 12 Months.
• Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Sell $13 Billion of Bonds Post-Earnings.

Zero Hedge:

• Israel Media Says Gaza Operation Delayed On Fears Of Hezbollah Full Assault In North, Hamas Issues Hostage Video.
• Europe "Shaken" By "Islamist Terrorist Attack" In Brussels; Shooter Still At Large.
• Supreme Court Orders 'Ghost Gun' Makers To Comply With Biden's Rule.
• Victor Davis Hanson Surveys Our Post-Hamas Wreckage.
• Financial Free Speech.
• Ministry Of Bulls**t Tries To Cancel Orwell As The Telegraph Follows 'Orwellian' Formula.
• Controversy Erupts Over Calls For US To Accept Gaza Refugees Amid Israel–Hamas War.
• US Taps 2,000 Troops for Potential Deployment To Support Israel.
• Oh, SNAP!
• Q3 Earnings Tracking 9% Beat, First Positive Estimate Revisions Since 2021.
• Trump Might Win And Have Dems To Thank.
• US stocks gained as geopolitical hedges unwound - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Israel Rejects Zelensky's Request To Visit: "Now Is Not The Time".
• If Inflation Is 3.7% And Oil Is Rising, Treasuries Can't Rally.
• Rep. Ilhan Omar Retweets False Photo Of Palestinian Children Killed By Israeli Forces.
• National Suicide In Plain View: Open Border And Sanctuary Policies Continue Unabated.
• Ticking Time-Bomb: Food Inflation Is Crushing Millions Of Low Income Americans.
• Kunstler: Who Do They Think They're Kidding?
• Yields, Stocks, & Crypto Jump; VIX, Gold, & Crude Dump.

Wall Street Journal:

• Biden to Visit Israel as U.S. Push for Border Opening Stalls.
• How the Israel-Hamas War Is Tilting the Global Power Balance.
• ‘I’m Not a Diplomat...I’m a Mom.’ The American Parents Thrust Into the Israeli Hostage Crisis.
• Home Sales on Pace for Slowest Year Since Housing Bust.
• Mexican Sinaloa Cartel’s Message to Members: Stop Making Fentanyl or Die.
• America Isn’t at War, but Iran Is. Tehran largely escapes accountability because proxies do the dirty work.
• M.B.A.s Usually Have Job Offers by Now. This Year Is Different.
• If the Economy Is Strong, Why Are Consumer Stocks Tanking?
• Starboard Takes 5%-Plus Stake in Contract-Research Firm Fortrea.

CNBC.com:

• Former FTX engineer tells jury about panicky rooftop meeting where he learned how bad things were.
• Snap rises nearly 12% after CEO shares strong 2024 goals with employees.
• Microsoft-owned LinkedIn lays off nearly 700 employees — read the memo here.

MarketWatch.com:

• What Israel-Hamas war means for gold as investors seek safety.
• UBS says Treasurys are poised for a powerful rebound as outlook for U.S. stocks dims.
• 70% chance Israel-Hamas war spreads beyond Gaza, threatening oil, strategist warns.

Newsmax:

• Rep. Jordan Optimistic, Pads Support for Speaker Bid.
• Biden Picks Gazans Over Hostages in Effort for Humanitarian Aid.

Fox News:

• Kari Lake picks up potentially base-expanding endorsement in bid to flip Senate seat.
• Anti-terror expert issues warning on chant used by pro-Palestinian activists.
• US sends 'be ready to deploy' order to some troops.
• Israeli family of 5 wiped out by Hamas reportedly found dead in each other's arms.
• Significant hurdle on the path to Jim Jordan's speakership rapidly dissipates.
• Brutal Hamas group behind hostage operations poses rescue nightmare.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Jack Smith Is Hiding Names of His Prosecutors Trying to Jail Trump in Violation of Federal FOIA Law
• BREAKING: OBAMA JUDGE HITS TRUMP WITH GAG ORDER! – THEN LECTURES TRUMP ATTORNEYS ON ELECTION INTERFERENCE!
• The Joe Biden Effect: Saudi Crown Prince Humiliates Secretary Anthony Blinken.
• LEAKED: Email From Lobbying Firm with Ties to RINO Mitch McConnell Organizing Phone Call with Jim Jordan Holdout Rep. Don Bacon on Eve of Speaker Vote.
• “I Am Willing to Go to Jail – If That’s What It Takes for Our Country to Win and Become a Democracy Again!” – President Trump Responds to Obama Judge’s Unconstitutional Gag Order (VIDEO).
• UPDATE: Belgian Authorities Raise Terror Alert to Highest Level After Two Dead in Islamist Terrorist Attack.
• Trump Sues Christopher Steele Over Dirty, Hillary Clinton-Funded Russia Dossier.
• “Pay For Slay”: America First Legal Challenges Biden’s Funding of Palestine as State Department Admits “High Risk” Funding Benefits Hamas Terrorists.
• DC Judge Tim Kelly Rejects Owen Shroyer’s Appeal – Infowars Host Must Enter Prison on Oct. 24 for Speech Crimes.
• Polish Elections: Ruling Conservative Party Is the Most Voted, but Liberal Opposition Coalition May Get Majority and Form New Government.
• MORE: Lawless Trump-Hating Judge Chutkan Is Angry that Trump Correctly Labeled Her a “Trump-Hating” Judge.
• 99% Conviction Rate: Another January 6er Betrayed By The Justice System: Darrell F. Neely Sr..
• VICTORY! Vocal McCarthy Supporter Rep. Mike Rogers Folds – Announces Support for Jim Jordan After Enormous Grassroots Pressure.
• BREAKING: Border Patrol Reports Recent Apprehensions of ‘Special Interest’ Iranians at Open US Southern Border – Raises Red Flags of Significant Terror Threat.
• Horror: Ten Members from Same Jewish Family Including Three Children Taken Hostage by Hamas During Deadly Raid.

The Epoch Times:

• Don't Forget to Keep an Eye on the Taiwan Strait.
• China Now Has Problems With Commercial Real Estate.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 987,217 Reports(+1,799 from prior week) Through September 22nd, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.25 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 81.5 -2.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 116.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.3 -.03%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.3 +3.2%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .00 -12.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.1 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%.

• S&P 500 futures -.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.