Monday, May 05, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @ElonMusk
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @MarioNawful
  • NIH TERMINATES CONTROVERSIAL BEAGLE EXPERIMENTATION. The lab doors finally swung shut on decades of distress. No more painful tests, no more lonely cages, no more puppy eyes filled with fear. National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Bhattacharya joked he's now receiving bouquets instead of angry letters, thanks to animal advocates like PETA. Elon’s DOGE is even sniffing out unnecessary cruelty. Trump's administration halted funding, and notorious breeder Envigo now faces massive fines. Taxpayers relieved, pups rejoice—cages are history, comfy couches await. NIH swapped cruelty for compassion, and tails everywhere wag their approval. Science just got kinder!
  • TEENAGER BUILDS APP THAT BEATS HEART SURGEONS AT THEIR OWN GAME. Meet Siddharth — age 14, armed with machine learning, and apparently here to disrupt cardiology before getting his learner’s permit. His app can detect up to 40 heart conditions in seconds, using ECG data and outscoring human doctors: 96% accuracy vs their 54%. That’s not a typo. The kid’s app is almost twice as accurate as the average physician. Next up? He’s working on diagnosing lung diseases. Because, you know, why not reinvent medicine between math homework? 
  • CHICKEN GIANT DITCHES PETROLEUM DYES: RFK JR. ANNOUNCES TYSON FOODS GOING AU NATURAL. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. revealed that Tyson Foods is eliminating all petroleum-based dyes from its food products by month's end. The food processing giant's move aligns with Kennedy's well-documented stance against artificial food additives, which he's repeatedly linked to various health concerns - a view that formerly made him an outsider but now guides federal policy. This represents one of the first major food industry shifts under Kennedy's HHS leadership, as America's largest meat producer responds to the administration's focus on natural ingredients.
  • NYPD SWARMED BY TEEN GANG DURING TIMES SQUARE ARREST — CHAOS CAUGHT ON VIDEO. Two NYPD officers attempting to stop an apparent teen assault in Times Square were suddenly surrounded by a violent group believed tied to the Tren de Aragua (TDA) gang. Video shows the suspects pushing officers, hurling objects, and flashing gang signs before scattering. At least one suspect is just 12 years old. (video)
  • DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION TO HARVARD: NO MORE FEDERAL GRANTS FOR YOU. Harvard just got a hard stop from the federal government. In a letter signed by Secretary of Education McMahon, the school was told it won’t be getting any new federal grant money. Why? Allegations of financial mismanagement, ignoring Supreme Court rulings, and what the letter calls a total betrayal of American values. 
  • SEC BESSENT: FOREIGN MARKETS OPENED, MANUFACTURING IS COMING HOME. "The goal is twofold. Open foreign markets—and bring back manufacturing. COVID exposed unreliable overseas suppliers in medicine, chips, steel. We can't let that happen again. It's time to rebalance the economy." (video) 
  • TRUMP MOVES TO END U.S. RELIANCE ON FOREIGN-MADE MEDICINE. Trump just signed an order to bring drug manufacturing back to American soil — because relying on foreign meds is out, and homemade pharmaceuticals are in. Right now, the U.S. gets a big chunk of its medicine (and the ingredients inside them) from countries like China and India. The new plan? Cut the red tape, fast-track factory building, and hand the EPA the keys to speed things up.
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @TheTranscript
  • @CharlieKirk11
  • @DC_Draino 
Quote
  • @EndWokeness
  • @JasonJournoDC
  • @WallStreetApes
  • Whistleblower confirms illegal migrants were issued social security numbers so they could claim benefits and vote in our elections. Aaron Heitke was a US Border Patrol Chief “who had experience with five different administrations”. He “confirmed that under Biden, he was directed to suppress, hide, and even alter data related to the crisis at the border. Detention capacity was ordered reduced throughout the country, and new Social Security numbers were ordered to be issued to undocumented aliens. Aaron Heitke admitted that this allowed them to access full Social Security benefits and Medicaid, register to vote, and even participate in our elections.” “It never really was about compassion, was it”. (video)
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.5 -1.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 59.75 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.76 +.05%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.12%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.4 -.3%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.35% +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.8 -.04%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.13%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.12%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.32%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, US Global Tariff Uncertainty, Profit-Taking, Energy/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.0 +1.5%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .71 -26.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.8 +.2% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.75 +.26%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.9 -.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.33 +4.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.6 -1.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 140.0 27.0
  • Total Put/Call .89 +6.0%
  • NYSE Arms .84 +16.7%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$167.1M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.2 -1.9%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 479.4 +1.5%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 271.0 -16.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.3 -.21%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 161.6 -1.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 109.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.4 +1.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 197.9 +.4%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 106.6 +1.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.67 -.21%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -23.75 basis points unch.
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -2.0 basis point -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 158.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 642.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 75.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.19% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.35% +4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.27%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.9 euros/megawatt-hour -.45%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.6 +4.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -3.4 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.5 -2.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(364 of 500 reporting) +12.4% -.9 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.91 +.09:  Growth Rate +11.9% unch., P/E 20.6 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.34% -4.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 423.89 +.07: Growth Rate +22.6% unch., P/E 30.2 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .00 +16.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.17 -25.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.5 -.2
  • US Yield Curve 50.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.1% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.0% -4.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.0 -4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 71.7% (-6.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 55.9%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +550 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +147 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -1.4% 2) Energy -1.2% 3) Alt Energy -.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ANGI, BRK/B, CRTO, SUN, TWST, TREE, JANX, TSN, ON, HELE, MARA, ZBH, CAPR, TGTX, PTCT, CEP and IART
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EWT 2) SIRI 3) TSN 4) SKX 5) IRM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) OCUL 2) TSN 3) ZYXI 4) ARVN 5) ON
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLP 2) XBI 3) XLE 4) IGV 5) IBB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +2.5% 2) Airlines +2.1% 3) Computer Services +1.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SKX, BCRX, FTAI, CPS, GFI, NSSC, QURE, FRO, BTU, TNK, TEN, NEXN, TWLO, RBRK, COLM, SHC, SEM, SKE, SHAK, IRTC, TIC, TTD, RDDT, EXAS, HHH, UPST, FRPT, NXST, AAL, ARES, CART, GTX and DAL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SKX 2) CNK 3) EWY 4) CEP 5) EXAS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BCRX 2) DUOL 3) NVT 4) NEM 5) MTZ
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XOP 3) OIH 4) SOXX 5) VDC
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ADM)/.66
  • (AEP)/1.40
  • (CEG)/2.18
  • (DDOG)/.43
  • (DUK)/1.60
  • (ENR)/.67
  • (RACE)/2.51
  • (IT)/2.72
  • (GPN)/2.68
  • (LEA)/2.69
  • (LDOS)/2.50
  • (LMND)/-.94
  • (MAR)/2.25
  • (BTU)/.04
  • (SEE)/.67
  • (TDG)/8.96
  • (THS)/-.15
  • (UBS)/.56
  • (ZTS)/1.41
After the Close: 
  • (AMD)/.94
  • (ANET)/.59
  • (ALAB)/.28
  • (CRUS)/1.18
  • (CPNG)/.06
  • (DVN)/1.24
  • (EA)/1.05
  • (JKHY)/1.37
  • (KLIC)/.19
  • (MOS)/.45
  • (MYGN)/-.05
  • (POWL)/3.44
  • (RDFN)/-.70
  • (RIVN)/-.77
  • (SMCI(/.43
  • (UPST)/.17
  • (WYNN)/1.24
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Trade Deficit for March is estimated to widen to -$137.2B versus -$122.7B in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 10Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, (ALB) annual meeting, (X) annual meeting, (TREX) annual meeting, (DHR) annual meeting, (PLNT) annual meeting, (INTC) annual meeting, (VLO) annual meeting, (CF) annual meeting, (BMY) annual meeting, (HUBB) annual meeting, (ALGN) investor day, (BAX) annual meeting, (GE) annual meeting, (OSK) annual meeting and the Assoc. for Research in Vision/Opthalmology Meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -10.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.2 +1.0
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 49.2% of Issues Advancing, 48.2% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .88 +22.2%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$162.6M
  • 48 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
  • 34.2% (-1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.3 -1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.1 +.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 229.6 -.5%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,333.0 -.25%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 58.0 (GREED) +16.0
  • 1-Day Vix 13.2 -33.4%
  • Vix 23.0 +1.6%
  • Total Put/Call .85 +1.2%

Sunday, May 04, 2025

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   
Zero Hedge: 
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @Zerohedge  
  • Goldman on Q2 GDP: "we believe inventory investment was significantly understated, which means that GDP was significantly understated too. We expect this distortion to reverse in Q2. Our current Q2 GDP forecast of +2.4% assumes that measured imports decline sharply but measured inventory investment remains solid as the distortion unwinds".
  • @MarioNawful
  • @LauraLoomer 
  • @amuse
  • @CGasparino
  • @nicksortor
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @CollinRugg
  • @StephenM
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @Charliekirk11
  • @C_3C_3
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @RepMTG
  • I gave my vote for a Biden/Democrat funding and policy CR once because my President asked me to, but I will not do it again. Going forward, earning my vote for funding and policies will be defined by these issues: 1. I will not vote to fund a single penny or bullet to Ukraine regardless of a useless mineral deal that the American people do not care about or want. Write the several hundred billion off as a loss instead of permanently injecting ourselves into a never ending blank check and geopolitical disaster that the American people do not support or even care about. Haven’t enough been slaughtered? Let’s mine our own rare Earth resources, we are rich either them, and create American jobs. And add Iran. Let the countries in that region of the world deal with them as they choose. Not America, we have an enemy that has literally been murdering, raping, and stealing from Americans for years. I’ve never seen a Houthi, but I’ve seen and heard the horror and heartbreak from American families about their family members murdered by the Cartel’s crimes and drugs. If we can post on social media that we are going to bomb Iran, why would we hesitate or ask permission from Mexico to take out the organizations that enrich themselves by tens of billions every year by murder, rape, drug trafficking, and human and child sex trafficking?
  • @DC_Draino
  • @catturd2
  • @sav_says_
  • @Breaking911
  • @Sassafrass_84
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.75 +.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 58.75 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.39%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.75 +.29% 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.5 -.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.29% -3.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.8 +1.6%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.29%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.53%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.54%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.