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Tuesday, April 12, 2005
Economic Releases
- The Trade Balance for February fell to -$61.0B versus estimates of -$59.0B and -$58.5B in January.
Morning Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on DNA, COF and GCI.
- Reiterated Underperform on PBG.
Smith Barney:
- Reiterated Buy on DNA, target $87.50.
- Reiterated Sell on IMCL, target $36.
- Reiterated Buy on CELG, target $41.
- Reiterated Buy on LRCX, target $38.
Morgan Stanley:
- Raised TLWT to Overweight, target $23.
JP Morgan:
- Cut WDC to Underweight.
- Rated GBBK Underweight.
- Raised SHW to Overweight.
- Rated PCBC Overweight.
Banc of America:
- Rated ALB Buy, target $41.
CSFB:
- Downgraded SKS to Underperform, target $14.
CIBC:
- Raised NICE to Sector Outperform, target $46.
Legg Mason:
- Rated WYNN Buy, target $80.
Merrill Lynch:
- Raised CUNO to Buy, target $60.
- Raised CSCO to Buy and added to Focus 1 stock list.
UBS:
- Rated URS Buy, target $45.
- Rated MHS Buy, target $67.
- Raised UGI to Buy, target $56.
- Reiterated Buy on OTEX, target $22.
- Reiterated Reduce on BMC, target $14.
Bear Stearns:
- Reiterated Outperform on HET, target $83.
Prudential:
- Reiterated Overweight on PD, target $137.
- Reiterated Outperform on DNA, COF and GCI.
- Reiterated Underperform on PBG.
Smith Barney:
- Reiterated Buy on DNA, target $87.50.
- Reiterated Sell on IMCL, target $36.
- Reiterated Buy on CELG, target $41.
- Reiterated Buy on LRCX, target $38.
Morgan Stanley:
- Raised TLWT to Overweight, target $23.
JP Morgan:
- Cut WDC to Underweight.
- Rated GBBK Underweight.
- Raised SHW to Overweight.
- Rated PCBC Overweight.
Banc of America:
- Rated ALB Buy, target $41.
CSFB:
- Downgraded SKS to Underperform, target $14.
CIBC:
- Raised NICE to Sector Outperform, target $46.
Legg Mason:
- Rated WYNN Buy, target $80.
Merrill Lynch:
- Raised CUNO to Buy, target $60.
- Raised CSCO to Buy and added to Focus 1 stock list.
UBS:
- Rated URS Buy, target $45.
- Rated MHS Buy, target $67.
- Raised UGI to Buy, target $56.
- Reiterated Buy on OTEX, target $22.
- Reiterated Reduce on BMC, target $14.
Bear Stearns:
- Reiterated Outperform on HET, target $83.
Prudential:
- Reiterated Overweight on PD, target $137.
Tuesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Mentor Corp. and Inamed got doctors' support at a hearing today before US government advisors who will decide whether the companies' silicone breast implants are safe enough to end a 13-year ban on the devices.
Wall Street Journal:
- Northwest Airlines is close to an agreement to buy 18 Boeing 787 Dreamliner jets, whose list prices total about $2.1 billion.
Financial Times:
- China has drafted regulations to tighten control on government purchases of software developed by overseas companies.
Lloyd's List:
- Nasdaq Stock Market expects as many as 10 Greek shipowners to sell shares and list on its exchange this year.
Advertising Age:
- Sirius Satellite Radio expects to increase advertising sales to $100 million in 2007 from $1 million last year.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on SLB and Underperform on GPI, BMC.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.07%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
ABT/.58
AMTD/.16
CEN/.21
GCI/1.05
TZOO/.14
Splits
TTWO 3-for-2
Economic Releases
8:30 EST
- The Trade Balance for February is estimated to fall to -$59.0B versus -$58.3B in January.
2:00 EST
- Minutes of March 22 FOMC Meeting
- The Monthly Budget Statement for March is estimated to rise to -$69.3B versus -$72.7B in February.
Bloomberg:
- Mentor Corp. and Inamed got doctors' support at a hearing today before US government advisors who will decide whether the companies' silicone breast implants are safe enough to end a 13-year ban on the devices.
Wall Street Journal:
- Northwest Airlines is close to an agreement to buy 18 Boeing 787 Dreamliner jets, whose list prices total about $2.1 billion.
Financial Times:
- China has drafted regulations to tighten control on government purchases of software developed by overseas companies.
Lloyd's List:
- Nasdaq Stock Market expects as many as 10 Greek shipowners to sell shares and list on its exchange this year.
Advertising Age:
- Sirius Satellite Radio expects to increase advertising sales to $100 million in 2007 from $1 million last year.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on SLB and Underperform on GPI, BMC.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.07%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
ABT/.58
AMTD/.16
CEN/.21
GCI/1.05
TZOO/.14
Splits
TTWO 3-for-2
Economic Releases
8:30 EST
- The Trade Balance for February is estimated to fall to -$59.0B versus -$58.3B in January.
2:00 EST
- Minutes of March 22 FOMC Meeting
- The Monthly Budget Statement for March is estimated to rise to -$69.3B versus -$72.7B in February.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed as gains in India are being offset by losses in China. I expect US equities to open modestly lower on a bounce in long-term interest rates and energy prices. The Portfolio is Market Neutral heading into tomorrow.
Monday, April 11, 2005
Monday Close
Indices
S&P 500 1,181.21 unch.
DJIA 10,448.56 -.12%
NASDAQ 1,992.12 -.36%
Russell 2000 607.17 -.59%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,629.63 -.06%
S&P Barra Growth 570.12 -.05%
S&P Barra Value 606.71 +.05%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 582.89 -.20%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 739.87 -.39%
Morgan Stanley Technology 451.50 -.49%
Transports 3,610.44 +.38%
Utilities 366.25 +1.17%
Put/Call 1.02 +9.68%
NYSE Arms 1.01 -27.24%
Volatility(VIX) 11.98 -5.07%
ISE Sentiment 145.00 -11.04%
US Dollar 84.22 +.01%
CRB 304.18 -.05%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.68 -.06%
Unleaded Gasoline 155.34 +.23%
Natural Gas 7.30 -.05%
Heating Oil 148.95 +.16%
Gold 430.40 unch.
Base Metals 130.61 +.71%
Copper 152.50 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.43% -.77%
Leading Sectors
Tobacco +1.25%
Oil Service +.93%
Energy +.70%
Lagging Sectors
Semis -.80%
Restaurants -.85%
Disk Drives -.98%
After-hours Movers
TIVO +4.96% on Smith Barney upgrade to Buy.
NTGR +4.6% after saying it will replace Advanced Marketing Services(MKT) in the S&P Small-cap 600.
SBGI +10.99% after saying that it has entered into an extension of its retransmission consent agreement with DIRECTV.
SLNK -8.2% after cutting 1Q forecast.
OTEX -13.2% after cutting 3Q/4Q outlook substantially.
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on DNA.
Smith Barney:
- Upgraded TIVO to Buy, target $7.75.
Banc of America:
- Downgraded ADM bonds to sell.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Genentech said first-quarter profit rose 61% on higher sales of Avastin and other cancer medicines.
- The average US retail price for regular-grade gasoline jumped 6.3 cents in the past week to $2.28 a gallon.
Wall Street Journal:
- Maurice “Hank” Greenberg, the former CEO of AIG, plans to invoke the Fifth Amendment tomorrow to avoid answering questions from regulators.
Australian Financial Review:
- China plans to introduce a licensing system to reduce the number of iron ore importers by as much as 80%, which may damage trade relations with Australia.
S&P 500 1,181.21 unch.
DJIA 10,448.56 -.12%
NASDAQ 1,992.12 -.36%
Russell 2000 607.17 -.59%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,629.63 -.06%
S&P Barra Growth 570.12 -.05%
S&P Barra Value 606.71 +.05%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 582.89 -.20%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 739.87 -.39%
Morgan Stanley Technology 451.50 -.49%
Transports 3,610.44 +.38%
Utilities 366.25 +1.17%
Put/Call 1.02 +9.68%
NYSE Arms 1.01 -27.24%
Volatility(VIX) 11.98 -5.07%
ISE Sentiment 145.00 -11.04%
US Dollar 84.22 +.01%
CRB 304.18 -.05%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.68 -.06%
Unleaded Gasoline 155.34 +.23%
Natural Gas 7.30 -.05%
Heating Oil 148.95 +.16%
Gold 430.40 unch.
Base Metals 130.61 +.71%
Copper 152.50 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.43% -.77%
Leading Sectors
Tobacco +1.25%
Oil Service +.93%
Energy +.70%
Lagging Sectors
Semis -.80%
Restaurants -.85%
Disk Drives -.98%
After-hours Movers
TIVO +4.96% on Smith Barney upgrade to Buy.
NTGR +4.6% after saying it will replace Advanced Marketing Services(MKT) in the S&P Small-cap 600.
SBGI +10.99% after saying that it has entered into an extension of its retransmission consent agreement with DIRECTV.
SLNK -8.2% after cutting 1Q forecast.
OTEX -13.2% after cutting 3Q/4Q outlook substantially.
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on DNA.
Smith Barney:
- Upgraded TIVO to Buy, target $7.75.
Banc of America:
- Downgraded ADM bonds to sell.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Genentech said first-quarter profit rose 61% on higher sales of Avastin and other cancer medicines.
- The average US retail price for regular-grade gasoline jumped 6.3 cents in the past week to $2.28 a gallon.
Wall Street Journal:
- Maurice “Hank” Greenberg, the former CEO of AIG, plans to invoke the Fifth Amendment tomorrow to avoid answering questions from regulators.
Australian Financial Review:
- China plans to introduce a licensing system to reduce the number of iron ore importers by as much as 80%, which may damage trade relations with Australia.
BOTTOM LINE: US stocks finished slightly lower today as energy prices rebounded from morning lows and worries over slowing growth persisted. The Portfolio finished higher on gains in my Energy longs, Chinese ADR shorts and Gaming longs. I exited a Retail long and added ESV long in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio Market Neutral. I am using a $35.5 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market weakened into the afternoon as the advance/decline finished at its daily lows, sector performance was mixed and volume remained very light. Small-cap and Cyclical stocks underperformed into the afternoon, while measures of investor anxiety remained mixed. Overall, today’s market action was mildly negative, considering the fall in long-term interest rates, stable commodity prices and the market’s oversold state. Worries over comments from the Fed and a bounce in energy prices and long-term interest rates will likely pressure stocks near-term.
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