Monday, June 20, 2005

Stocks Modestly Lower Mid-day on Rising Energy Prices

Indices
S&P 500 1,213.93 -.25%
DJIA 10,588.01 -.33%
NASDAQ 2,087.03 -.15%
Russell 2000 642.87 -.20%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,042.58 -.21%
S&P Barra Growth 581.80 -.24%
S&P Barra Value 627.91 -.25%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 583.43 -.22%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 739.70 -.55%
Morgan Stanley Technology 482.69 +.15%
Transports 3,570.76 -.59%
Utilities 377.57 -.03%
Put/Call 1.03 unch.
NYSE Arms .91 +16.18%
Volatility(VIX) 11.58 +.87%
ISE Sentiment 145.00 +35.51%
US Dollar 88.48 +.95%
CRB 312.51 +.49%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.00 +.99%
Unleaded Gasoline 164.60 -.07%
Natural Gas 7.60 -1.17%
Heating Oil 166.00 +.50%
Gold 440.10 +.02%
Base Metals 127.34 +.09%
Copper 158.75 -1.03%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.09% +.71%

Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +2.17%
Airlines +1.71%
Biotech +.74%

Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -1.23%
Homebuilders -1.56%
Steel -2.85%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Software and Homebuilding longs. I pared a few longs this morning and added NUE short, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. I am using a $55 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are higher and volume is light. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is neutral, considering another move higher in energy and disappointing Leading Indicator report. According to the Washington Service, insiders in the energy sector sold more than in any other S&P 500 sector last week. There were no buys and $76,200,943 in sells. Energy-related companies with the most pronounced insider selling last week include: Amerada Hess (AHC), Transocean (RIG), Burlington Resources (BR), EOG Resources (EOG) and National-Oilwell Varco (NOV). I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on short-covering and pullback in long-term rates from session highs.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The US Supreme Court told a lower court to reconsider a decision that trimmed the power of federal prosecutors to press cases against child pornographers.
- The US Supreme Court agreed to consider limiting antitrust suits against pharmaceutical companies, computer makers and other patent holders.
- US companies that generate most of their revenue overseas, such as McDonald’s and Colgate-Palmolive, may trail the stock market this year as the dollar’s surge hurts sales and earnings.
- Crude oil is rising above $59/bbl. to a second-straight record in NY as producers struggled to meeting increasing fuel consumption.
- The euro fell the most this month against the dollar after European Union leaders failed to agree on the group’s seven-year budget, adding to concern economic integration will slow.
- Time and Newsweek have agreed to eliminate tobacco ads from four magazines distributed to school libraries.
- The Fed is likely to continue a “moderate pace” of interest rate increases, even as inflation and inflation expectations remain low, said Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Richmond Fed.

Wall Street Journal:
- Cablevision Systems’ chairman and president offered to take the cable-tv provider private for $7.9 billion.
- The threat of house-price slumps in some parts of the US has risen, partly because of laxer lending standards, according to Fannie Mae.
- US drugmaker Wyeth will cut as much as 30% of its 2,500 fulltime sales force by the end of the year.
- Toronto-Dominion Bank and Ameritrade Holding are close to a deal.
- JetBlue Airways Group plans to issue an American Express credit card that will accumulate points on the discount carrier’s frequent flier program.
- Chinese antique furniture prices are soaring as growing demand prompts dealers to scour remote villages in China for artifacts.
- These are hard times for any company involved in steel, excess supply having led to an eight-month decline in steel prices, and metal service centers such as Ryerson Tull, Olympic Steel and Reliance Steel are more vulnerable than most.
- Procter & Gamble and other companies are expected to put more money this fall into placing products in television shows as digital video recorders make it easier to skip traditional commercials.

Barron’s:
- Molecular Devices, which makes measurement systems used in discovering new drugs, has highly profitable and rare products that are helping the company increases sales.

Guardian:
- The European Union needs to find consensus to engage in economic change and become competitive in global markets or face decline, EU Trade Commissioner Mandelson wrote.

Die Welt:
- UPS expects European sales to growth by a “double-digit” percentage this year as the delivery company continues an expansion into Eastern Europe.

Leading Indicators Signal Slower Growth

- Leading Indicators for May fell .5% versus estimates of a .3% decline and an upwardly revised unchanged reading in April.

BOTTOM LINE: The index of leading economic indicators fell for the fourth month in five, pulled down by a flattening of the yield curve. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index fell in May which also contributed to the overall decline, however it has since rebounded. The Conference Board has stated that they believe a six-moth annualized decline of 3.5% or more would suggest imminent risk of recession. However, the six-moth annualized decline in May was 2.2%.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Wal-Mart Stores said June sales at its US stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast range, led for the second straight week by apparel and other general merchandise.
- Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Israelis and Palestinians agreed that Israeli settlers' homes will be destroyed after Israel leaves the Gaza Strip.
- The fight to legalize gay marriage is headed to the highest court in New Jersey, where advocates say past decisions may give them an advantage.
- Brain scans can detect Alzheimer's disease in people who don't have symptoms, suggesting that early diagnosis may become more common for the elderly.
- The euro may resume its decline against the dollar and yen on indications European officials favor a weaker currency to help boost exports.
- Walter Industries, a homebuilder and maker of iron pipe for water and sewer systems, agreed to buy Mueller Water Products for $860 million to add sales of fire hydrants and valves.
- The euro had its biggest drop in 10 days after European Union officials failed to agree on a seven-year budget at a meeting late last week.
- China picked 42 companies including China Yangtze Power and Baoshan Iron & Steel, the second and third-largest on the Shanghai stock exchange, to sell shares in a plan to trim $250 billion of state holdings.
- Crude oil rose above $59 a barrel in New York for the first time, reinforcing concern record oil prices may hinder global economic growth.

Wall Street Journal:
- News Corp. is close to an agreement with Time Warner's cable unit to begin broadcasting a Fox News business channel as early as next year.

New York Times:
- GM's share of the US auto market rose 8 percentage points in the first 12 days of a discounting program begun June 1 compared to last month, citing research by JD Power & Assoc.
- Aviation industry experts, including officials at the FAA, say a so-called air-taxi system by provide US travelers with a safe and reliable alternative way of flying.
- Chewing gum sales are on the rise, and some industry experts say the increase is because more adults who are trying to quit smoking or lose weight are chewing.

Washington Post:
- Chinese farmers compromised an antiviral drug for humans and violated international livestock guidelines by using it to control bird flu in chicken flocks.
- President Bush will choose either Attorney General Alberto Gonzales or federal appeals Judges John Roberts or J. Mchael Luttig to be the next Supreme Court chief justice.
- Senator Robert Byrd, a West Virginia Democrat, wrote in his new book that he is embarrassed by his involvement with the Ku Klux Klan in the 1940s.

Boston Globe:
- A Massachusetts law that would have allowed the state to suspend the driver's licenses of some 4,600 unregistered sex offenders has never been put into effect, two years after it was passed.

Detroit News:
- Ford Motor and DaimlerChrysler AG plan to ask for the same concessions that General Motors negotiates with its workers as it seeks to cut health-care costs.

Time Magazine:
- CIA Director Porter Goss said he has an "excellent idea" about the location of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.

AP:
- MasterCard Intl. said that 68,000 of the 13.9 million credit cards that were exposed to possible fraud are considered to be at high risk.

Reuters:
- BHP Billiton expects to restart its Tintaya copper mine, the third largest in Peru, "in the short term" after talks with local residents who forced its closure last month.

Financial Times:
- General Electric may buy Westinghouse, the US nuclear power group of British Nuclear Fuels Plc.

Independent on Sunday:
- GLG Partners LP, Europe's largest hedge fund manager, may have to repay investors about $1 billion after losses at two of its main funds.
- Former Citigroup vice chairman Deryck Maughan may be considered for the position of chief executive at Morgan Stanley.

Sunday Telegraph:
- The UK government may change a plan to ban smoking in some public places by 2008, to outlaw it in all of them.
- French President Chirac is planning to make UK Prime Minister Tony Blair's presidency of the European Union difficult after their spat over the EU budget.

Het Financieele Dagblad:
- Corus Group Plc CEO Varin said Europe may be facing a rush of cheaper steel from countries such as China, South Korea, India and Idonesia.

De Telegraaf:
- A Royal Dutch/Shell Group think-tank expects China to overtake Europe as an economic and political superpower by 2025.

Finanz und Wirtschaft:
- Interest from large drug companies in the anti-infective drug industry is likely to rise following an acquisition by Pfizer in the sector.

Bild am Sonntag:
- The European Union cannot make any more promises to countries seeking entry into the union beyond those agreed with Bulgaria and Romania, following the collapse of the bloc's planned constitution.

Xinhua News Agency:
- TRW Automotive Holdings will set up an automobile parts venture with China South Industry Group.
- One of northeast China's richest men, Cai Kuanxi, and his family were stabbed to death over the weekend.

Asian Wall Street Journal:
- Two US congressman wrote to President Bush on June 17 seeking a review of any bid by CNOOC Ltd. for Unocal Corp. on national-security concerns.

Weekend Recommendations
Bulls and Bears:
- Had guests that were positive on PLT, AGIX, MEOH, PIR, FWRD, mixed on FRO, and negative on BBY.

Forbes on Fox:
- Had guests that were positive on WMT and mixed on LTD, CAJ, VIA, NKE, AIG.

Cashin' In:
- Had guests that were positive on UHCO, MO, PTF, SNE, RTU and mixed on MWD.

Cavuto on Business:
- Had guests that were positive on HDI, BC, EPP, IMCL, WTR, EXC and mixed on RL.

Barron's:
- Had positive comments on SQA/A, KAMNA, TOPP, WTS, ITT, NBR, LYO, DRL, STFC, NOVL, BORL, C, ROH, MSFT, NVL, PHRM, IPG and STA.
- Had negative comments on GOOG, RIMM, AMED and TOL.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on KRB and BAC.

Morgan Stanley:
- Morgan Stanley's chief Asian economist is calling for an oil price collapse as Chinese imports of the commodity fall.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.18%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.23%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AMHC/.23
KMX/.36
VTS/.47

Upcoming Splits
ASCA 2-for-1
DGX 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 EST
- Leading Indicators for May is estimated to fall .3% versus a .2% decline in April.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mixed as strength in energy-related stocks in the region is offsetting weakness in exporting shares. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower on another rise in energy prices and comments by the Fed's Stern that the US economy will continue to expand between 3-4% and there's "no reason" the Fed should cease raising rates. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.