Monday, June 27, 2005

Stocks Modestly Lower Mid-day as Oil Trades Above $60

Indices
S&P 500 1,189.90 -.14%
DJIA 10,272.06 -.25%
NASDAQ 2,041.91 -.55%
Russell 2000 626.44 -.63%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,810.44 -.16%
S&P Barra Growth 567.77 -.03%
S&P Barra Value 618.11 -.24%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 569.56 -.14%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 708.65 -.51%
Morgan Stanley Technology 472.22 -.88%
Transports 3,386.49 -.73%
Utilities 382.53 +.48%
Put/Call 1.01 +13.48%
NYSE Arms 1.22 -12.0%
Volatility(VIX) 12.68 +4.11%
ISE Sentiment 128.00 -48.18%
US Dollar 88.44 -.38%
CRB 311.85 -.12%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 60.65 +1.35%
Unleaded Gasoline 167.95 +1.44%
Natural Gas 7.18 -2.45%
Heating Oil 168.00 +1.79%
Gold 441.80 -.05%
Base Metals 123.51 -.64%
Copper 156.30 +.81%
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.89% -.54%

Leading Sectors
Energy +1.47%
Homebuilding +1.40%
Oil Service +1.12%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -1.51%
Semis -1.56%
Airlines -2.81%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Internet and Semiconductor longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is light. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is modestly negative. The consumer discretionary industry saw the greatest amount of net insider selling in the S&P 500 last week. Insiders sold $110,306,445 worth of stock and made no purchases. The energy industry, which led insider selling the prior week, saw no purchases or sales. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering and quarter-end window-dressing.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Ten Commandments displays designed for two Kentucky courthouses are unconstitutional, the US Supreme Court ruled in a high-profile church-state clash.
- The US Supreme Court bolstered the entertainment industry’s anti-piracy campaign, saying Grokster Ltd. and other Internet file-sharing networks may bear responsibility when users illegally download music and films.
- The euro rose the most in more than a week against the dollar and yen after European Central Bank officials damped speculation they are considering a reduction in interest rates.
- Crude oil touched a record for a third straight day on concern that Iran’s new president may limit foreign investment in the nation’s oil industry.
- President Bush said the US and its allies view Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons “unacceptable.”

Wall Street Journal:
- The US Housing and Urban is planning a review of closing costs for home mortgages in a bid to better define them and reduce their costs for homebuyers.
- US federal prosecutors have sent subpoenas to more than a dozen insurers and re-insurers that have entered into “finite-risk” and other non-traditional transactions with units of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.

NY Times:
- Viacom’s MTV Networks will promote Midway Games video games in advertising and programming in a partnership expected to be announced today.
- SBC Communications delayed plans to sell television programming over high-speed lines by six months because of problems with installation.

NY Daily News:
- NY’s murder rate may fall below 500 this year, which would be the lowest since 1991.

San Francisco Chronicle:
- Ethanol, a clean-burning fuel produced by corn and sugarcane, may require as much as six times as much energy to produce as it gives off, citing a study in the journal Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences.

Financial News:
- Blackstone Group LP may seek to raise an unprecedented $12.5 billion for its latest buyout fund, topping the record $8.5 billion raised by Goldman Sachs Group.

Washington Post:
- Employees of suppliers to Wal-Mart Stores are moving near the company’s northwest Arkansas headquarters, gentrifying the area and increasing the region’s average income.

Reuters:
- Cingular Wireless LLC, the biggest US cellular phone service, may sell a Motorola handset that can download and play songs from Apple Computer’s iTunes music service.

Financial Times:
- Wal-Mart Stores will start a new marketing push for George clothing, the brand the US-based discount-store chain acquired withy its 1999 purchase of Britain’s Asda sotres.

Economic Releases

None of note

Links of Interest

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Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China said it opposes anti-dumping investigations by the European Union into increased Chinese show imports, accusing its trading partner of distorting trade figures and misleading the public.
- China's central bank Governor Zhou Ziaochuan said it's too soon to drop the decade-old yuan peg and that he has no plans to discuss the currency's link to the US dollar at a weekend meeting of the world's central bankers in Basel, Switzerland.
- Russian President Putin urged US executives from companies including Citigroup and Intel to invest more in Russian, after the breakup of OAO Yukos undermined investor confidence.
- Finance ministers from the European Union and Asia called on OPEC to boost oil production, saying "high and volatile" crude costs pose a threat to global economic growth.
- The US dollar is headed for its biggest quarterly advance since Sept. 2000 and may extend its rally, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
- International Paper may sell its $900 million stake in New Zealand forester Carter Holt Harvey, ending a 14-year investment as it seeks better returns in markets such as China.
- Crude oil is rising to another record in NY after Iran, OPEC's second-largest producer, elected a president who promised to pursue the country's nuclear power program, increasing tension with the US.

Wall Street Journal:
- US Congress members signed a letter asking President Bush to review CNOOC's $18.5 billion unsolicited bid for Unocal.

Barron's:
- A global economic slowdown will help counter inflationary pressures and increase the possibility of a prolonged expansion, said Nancy Lazar, an economist at International Strategy & Investment Group.
- The US Fed may raise the fed-funds rate another two or three times, to 3.75% or 4%, by year-end, citing economists.

New York Times:
- Morgan Stanley former President John Mack has told the board of the company he wants two former executives, Vikram Pandit and Joseph Perella, to return with him if he takes up the post of CEO.
- The city of Philadelphia's public schools will require all students entering high school this year to take a course in African-American history to graduate, making it the first major US city with such a requirement.
- Chevron Vice Chairman Robertson called CNOOC's $18.5 billion offer for Unocal unfair because Chevron was competing with the Chinese government, not another commercial company, for oil producer Unocal.
- Chinese bids for US companies may benefit the US economy by keeping domestic workers employed longer than they might have been otherwise.

Crain's New York Business:
- NY companies are increasingly offering insurance and other benefits to their gay and lesbian employees' live-in partners.

Crain's Chicago Business:
- Chicago's downtown has more than 26 million square feet of vacant office space, making it one of the weakest markets in the nation.

Washington Post:
- US colleges are competing to become more energy efficient and cut carbon dioxide emissions amid rising natural gas costs and student environmental activism.
- The internet has become more vulnerable to hackers and other problems, and those who repair glitches say the situation is getting worse.

Folha de S. Paulo:
- Google plans to open a Brazilian unit this year, according to Sergey Brin, a company founder and its technology chief.

Financial Times:
- Demand for shares in PartyGaming Plc's IPO is triple the amount available in the online poker operator.
- The victory of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran's presidential election on June 24 may jeopardize the country's relations with the European Union.
- Wal-Mart Stores plans to expand in central and eastern Europe, with particular emphasis on Poland, Hungary and Russia.
- Merrill Lynch says the growth of demand in the US for spirits may be a short-lived fashion rather than a structural change.

AFP:
- OPEC ministers have started talks to discuss ways of lowering oil prices that climbed to $60 a barrel this week, citing OPEC's president.

Nihon Keizai:
- Nissan Motor and Toyota Motor, Japan's two biggest automakers, will spend billions of dollars revamping their US dealerships.

China Daily:
- China may remove taxes on vehicles that emit low levels or zero exhaust emissions to cut pollution and oil consumption.

Weekend Recommendations
Bulls and Bears:
- Had guests that were positive on BAC, MMC, AMR, mixed on UNH, NFG, AIG, VZ, IGT and negative on DIS, AA.

Forbes on Fox:
- Had guests that were positive on PSUN and mixed on DNA, AGN, EXEL, ISSX.

Cashin' In:
- Had guests that were positive on IGR, THO, RNT, SO and negative on VLCCF, NAT.

Cavuto on Business:
- Had guests that were positive on EFX, SYMC, KRB and C.

Barron's:
- Had positive comments on DOW, MNCP and HEW.
- Had negative comments on AAPL.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on MO.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.07%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CYBX/-.32
NKE/1.27
PAYX/.24
SONC/.36
WAG/.38

Upcoming Splits
CTR 3-for-2

Economic Releases
None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly lower on worries over slowing growth in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower on another rise in energy prices. However, stocks may rise later in the day on short-covering and quarter-end window dressing. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.