S&P 500 1,144.94 unch.
NASDAQ 2,029.82 -.14%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.75%
Iron/Steel +2.03%
Fashion +1.22%
Lagging Sectors
Airlines -.66%
Hospitals -.72%
Semis -1.49%
Other
Crude Oil 36.16 +1.83%
Natural Gas 5.42 +.46%
Gold 396.80 +.33%
Base Metals 113.05 +.13%
U.S. Dollar 87.31 -.40%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.97% -1.57%
VIX 14.55 -1.89%
Put/Call .72 +14.29%
NYSE Arms 1.33 +51.14%
After-hours Movers
None of Notes
Recommendations
Janney Montgomery cut ILXO to Hold from Buy. Goldman Sachs recommends buying the Yen vs. the Euro. GS also recommending to go long Puts on June WTI crude with a 29.00/bbl. strike. Goldman expects crude to reach $26.00/bbl. by June. GS is revising their average summer NYMEX natural gas price forecast up by $.75/mmBtu to $5.25/mmBtu.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks were mixed today, as semis led tech lower with most other sectors showing strength. The yield on the U.S. 10-yr. Treasury note fell today as the revised GDP deflator showed little inflation. As well, Fed Governor Bernanke told reporters yesterday the Fed will be "patient and watch the data to see how things continue" on inflation. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office says that President Bush's budget request to Congress would cut the deficit in half by 2007. Deutsche Bank's 40-story tower next to the World Trade Center site will be sold to New York state for $90M and demolished to make more room for redevelopment at Ground Zero.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished the day about even. I covered a few cyclical shorts and sold some technology longs near the close to reposition the Portfolio, while maintaining 75% net long market exposure. Bonds are on the verge of breaking out technically. This is very strange considering the continued strength in commodities prices and all of the recent talk of inflation worries. The rotation out of tech and into consumer cyclicals seems to have a little further to go. With interest rates dropping and tax stimulus coming, investors are betting the valuations in retail and homebuilding are too low relative to tech. I expect tech to regain its leadership role in the 2nd quarter.
Friday, February 27, 2004
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,147.89 +.26%
NASDAQ 2,030.70 -.07%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.37%
Iron/Steel +2.11%
HMO's +1.28%
Lagging Sectors
Hospitals -.25%
Airlines -.68%
Semis -1.50%
Other
Crude Oil 36.10 +1.66%
Natural Gas 5.46 +1.28%
Gold 396.80 +.33%
Base Metals 113.05 +.13%
U.S. Dollar 87.39 -.32%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.98% -1.28%
VIX 14.36 -3.17%
Put/Call .84 +33.33%
NYSE Arms 1.10 +25%
Market Movers
SPW -19.8% on 4Q estimate miss, weak outlook and multiple downgrades.
DNA +5.2% on U.S. approval to sell its Avastin colon-cancer drug.
ILXO +16.7% on takeover by Genzyme, GENZ -5.4%.
MRVL +5.1% on strong 4Q, raised 1Q guidance and 2-for-1 split announcement.
RDY -13.0% after the Indian drugmaker was barred by a U.S. appeals court from selling a version of Pfizer's hypertension drug Norvasc.
PDE -13.1% after weak 4Q and downgrade by Merrill.
ADSK +9.3% after significantly beating 4Q estimates and raising 1Q guidance significantly, multiple upgrades.
Economic Data
Revised GDP was 4.1% vs. expectations of 3.8%.
Revised Personal Consumption was 2.7% vs. expectations of 2.6%.
Revised GDP Price Deflator was 1.2% vs. expectations of 1.1%.
Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for Feb. was 94.4, ahead of the 94.0 estimate.
Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for Feb. was 63.6 vs. 63.5 estimates.
Recommendations
Goldman positive on MRVL, raising estimates and reiterating outperform. GS reiterates Outperform on SNDK after Analyst Day. Citi Smith Barney positive on BRCM and MRVL.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mixed this afternoon, as technology shares' weakness is offset by broad strength in the rest of the market. The Supreme Court will discuss whether to take a case by the Department of Justice questioning the legality of certain Class II slot machines, with a decision expected to be published on Monday, March 1. If the S.C. decides to take the case, it may potentially take away one of the slot makers growth opportunities, according to Goldman Sachs. Autodesk(ADSK) CEO said on CNBC that customer demand is very strong. Iraq plans to boost crude-oil exports to pre-war levels of 2.2 million barrels a day by late March or early April. The U.S. dollar will continue to weaken through year-end according to traders and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index held close to its highest level in almost 10 years. As well, a measure of employment showed more companies are adding jobs in the area. The judge in the Martha Stewart trial dismissed a securities fraud charge, the most serious offense in the indictment.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is about even on the day. I haven't made any trades yet. Market exposure equals 75% net long. I will likely sell a few of my tech positions and rotate into a more consumer cyclicals, keeping market exposure at 75% net long.
NASDAQ 2,030.70 -.07%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.37%
Iron/Steel +2.11%
HMO's +1.28%
Lagging Sectors
Hospitals -.25%
Airlines -.68%
Semis -1.50%
Other
Crude Oil 36.10 +1.66%
Natural Gas 5.46 +1.28%
Gold 396.80 +.33%
Base Metals 113.05 +.13%
U.S. Dollar 87.39 -.32%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.98% -1.28%
VIX 14.36 -3.17%
Put/Call .84 +33.33%
NYSE Arms 1.10 +25%
Market Movers
SPW -19.8% on 4Q estimate miss, weak outlook and multiple downgrades.
DNA +5.2% on U.S. approval to sell its Avastin colon-cancer drug.
ILXO +16.7% on takeover by Genzyme, GENZ -5.4%.
MRVL +5.1% on strong 4Q, raised 1Q guidance and 2-for-1 split announcement.
RDY -13.0% after the Indian drugmaker was barred by a U.S. appeals court from selling a version of Pfizer's hypertension drug Norvasc.
PDE -13.1% after weak 4Q and downgrade by Merrill.
ADSK +9.3% after significantly beating 4Q estimates and raising 1Q guidance significantly, multiple upgrades.
Economic Data
Revised GDP was 4.1% vs. expectations of 3.8%.
Revised Personal Consumption was 2.7% vs. expectations of 2.6%.
Revised GDP Price Deflator was 1.2% vs. expectations of 1.1%.
Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for Feb. was 94.4, ahead of the 94.0 estimate.
Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for Feb. was 63.6 vs. 63.5 estimates.
Recommendations
Goldman positive on MRVL, raising estimates and reiterating outperform. GS reiterates Outperform on SNDK after Analyst Day. Citi Smith Barney positive on BRCM and MRVL.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mixed this afternoon, as technology shares' weakness is offset by broad strength in the rest of the market. The Supreme Court will discuss whether to take a case by the Department of Justice questioning the legality of certain Class II slot machines, with a decision expected to be published on Monday, March 1. If the S.C. decides to take the case, it may potentially take away one of the slot makers growth opportunities, according to Goldman Sachs. Autodesk(ADSK) CEO said on CNBC that customer demand is very strong. Iraq plans to boost crude-oil exports to pre-war levels of 2.2 million barrels a day by late March or early April. The U.S. dollar will continue to weaken through year-end according to traders and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index held close to its highest level in almost 10 years. As well, a measure of employment showed more companies are adding jobs in the area. The judge in the Martha Stewart trial dismissed a securities fraud charge, the most serious offense in the indictment.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is about even on the day. I haven't made any trades yet. Market exposure equals 75% net long. I will likely sell a few of my tech positions and rotate into a more consumer cyclicals, keeping market exposure at 75% net long.
Friday Watch
Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
TTWO/.70
IART/.30
Splits
None of note
Economic Data
4Q revised GDP estimated at 3.8% from 4.0% actual.
4Q revised Personal Consumption estimated at 2.6% vs. 2.6% actual.
4Q revised GDP Price Deflator estimated at 1.1% vs. 1.0% actual.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence for Feb. estimated at 94.0 vs. 93.1 prior month.
Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index for Feb. estimated at 63.5 vs. 65.9 last month.
Late-Night News
Japanese Industrial Production rose 3.4% in January vs. expectations of 2.5%. Pimco purchased about $3B of U.S. Treasury inflation-linked securities at the government's January auction, anticipating a return of inflation. Disney may be interested in buying InterActiveCorp(IACI) to discourage Comcast, Business Week reported. George Soros raised his stake in Valentis(VLTS) to 20%, Business Week said. Disney said that more than 30% of its shareholders may not back Chairman and CEO Eisner at next week's meeting, the WSJ reported. China's growing demand for cars is causing global rubber prices to surge. Michelin and Bridgestone said they will raise prices to compensate. Investors are becoming increasingly concerned about junk bonds, Citi Smith Barney said.
Late-Night Trading
Asian markets are mostly up, ranging from +.50% to +2.0%.
S&P 500 indicated +.22%.
NASDAQ indicated +.30%.
BOTTOM LINE: The strength in Japan, Korea and Hong Kong tonight bodes well for tech stocks tomorrow. It is likely that Consumer Confidence will fall below expectations again and I will closely watch the market's reaction to this news. The Chicago Purchasing Manager's report should meet or beat expectations. The Portfolio remains 75% net long and I will likely make some trades tomorrow on the long side.
Company/Estimate
TTWO/.70
IART/.30
Splits
None of note
Economic Data
4Q revised GDP estimated at 3.8% from 4.0% actual.
4Q revised Personal Consumption estimated at 2.6% vs. 2.6% actual.
4Q revised GDP Price Deflator estimated at 1.1% vs. 1.0% actual.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence for Feb. estimated at 94.0 vs. 93.1 prior month.
Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index for Feb. estimated at 63.5 vs. 65.9 last month.
Late-Night News
Japanese Industrial Production rose 3.4% in January vs. expectations of 2.5%. Pimco purchased about $3B of U.S. Treasury inflation-linked securities at the government's January auction, anticipating a return of inflation. Disney may be interested in buying InterActiveCorp(IACI) to discourage Comcast, Business Week reported. George Soros raised his stake in Valentis(VLTS) to 20%, Business Week said. Disney said that more than 30% of its shareholders may not back Chairman and CEO Eisner at next week's meeting, the WSJ reported. China's growing demand for cars is causing global rubber prices to surge. Michelin and Bridgestone said they will raise prices to compensate. Investors are becoming increasingly concerned about junk bonds, Citi Smith Barney said.
Late-Night Trading
Asian markets are mostly up, ranging from +.50% to +2.0%.
S&P 500 indicated +.22%.
NASDAQ indicated +.30%.
BOTTOM LINE: The strength in Japan, Korea and Hong Kong tonight bodes well for tech stocks tomorrow. It is likely that Consumer Confidence will fall below expectations again and I will closely watch the market's reaction to this news. The Chicago Purchasing Manager's report should meet or beat expectations. The Portfolio remains 75% net long and I will likely make some trades tomorrow on the long side.
Thursday, February 26, 2004
Thursday Close
S&P 500 1,144.91 +.11%
NASDAQ 2,032.57 +.47%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +3.55%
Networking +1.46%
Gaming +1.38%
Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.17%
Papers -.34%
Defense -.65%
Other
Crude Oil 35.37 -.39%
Natural Gas 5.41 +.26%
Gold 395.90 +.10%
Base Metals 112.90 +.13%
U.S. Dollar 87.66 +.47%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.03% +.67%
VIX 14.83 -.67%
Put/Call .63 -17.11%
NYSE Arms .88 +12.82%
After-hours Movers
ADSK +12.6% after significantly beating 4Q estimates and raising guidance substantially.
MCDTA +7.0% after beating 4Q and reiterating 1Q guidance.
CHINA +2.9% after strong 4Q.
ILXO +17.45% on $1B takeover offer by Genzyme. GENZ -4.3%.
MRVL +4.9% on strong 4Q and 2-for-1 split announcement.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterates Attractive rating on AMR and raises estimates as strengthening demand offsets higher oil prices.
After-hours News
U.S. markets finished mostly higher today, as strength in homebuilding and technology shares offset weakness in the defense sector. After the close, Business Objects(BOBJ) pulled out of 2 investor conferences next week, leading traders to speculate a secondary is coming. The U.S. may limit exports of scrap steel to ensure that the raw material used to make steel bars and other products is in sufficient supply to meet domestic demand, citing the Korean Trade Promotion Agency. Four Season may offer to buy Savoy Group, the owner of London's Claridge's hotel, for as much as $1.5 billion, the London-based Times said. Genentech said it won U.S. approval for its Avastin drug, the first caner drug that chokes off a tumor's blood supply. The U.S. Justice Department will seek to block Oracle's $9.4B hostile bid for Peoplesoft. "A more meaningful pick-up in hiring cannot be far away, as capital spending is now growing at a 15-20% rate in the current quarter," said Deutshe Bank's Joseph LaVorgna. As well, Fed Governor Susan Bies, in a speech to the NY Forecasters Club, said "job growth may pick-up perhaps substantially over the course of the year."
BOTTOM LINE: The Durable Goods report makes me more confident in my 5%+ GDP prediction for 1Q. I am seeing comments by CEO's that lead me to believe that they FINALLY believe in the strength of the recovery. Their confidence, combined with recent data points showing a stretched labor force and some supply shortages, lends more credence to recent Fed talk of a pick-up in job creation soon. I didn't make any change today, thus leaving the Portfolio with 75% net long market exposure.
NASDAQ 2,032.57 +.47%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +3.55%
Networking +1.46%
Gaming +1.38%
Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.17%
Papers -.34%
Defense -.65%
Other
Crude Oil 35.37 -.39%
Natural Gas 5.41 +.26%
Gold 395.90 +.10%
Base Metals 112.90 +.13%
U.S. Dollar 87.66 +.47%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.03% +.67%
VIX 14.83 -.67%
Put/Call .63 -17.11%
NYSE Arms .88 +12.82%
After-hours Movers
ADSK +12.6% after significantly beating 4Q estimates and raising guidance substantially.
MCDTA +7.0% after beating 4Q and reiterating 1Q guidance.
CHINA +2.9% after strong 4Q.
ILXO +17.45% on $1B takeover offer by Genzyme. GENZ -4.3%.
MRVL +4.9% on strong 4Q and 2-for-1 split announcement.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterates Attractive rating on AMR and raises estimates as strengthening demand offsets higher oil prices.
After-hours News
U.S. markets finished mostly higher today, as strength in homebuilding and technology shares offset weakness in the defense sector. After the close, Business Objects(BOBJ) pulled out of 2 investor conferences next week, leading traders to speculate a secondary is coming. The U.S. may limit exports of scrap steel to ensure that the raw material used to make steel bars and other products is in sufficient supply to meet domestic demand, citing the Korean Trade Promotion Agency. Four Season may offer to buy Savoy Group, the owner of London's Claridge's hotel, for as much as $1.5 billion, the London-based Times said. Genentech said it won U.S. approval for its Avastin drug, the first caner drug that chokes off a tumor's blood supply. The U.S. Justice Department will seek to block Oracle's $9.4B hostile bid for Peoplesoft. "A more meaningful pick-up in hiring cannot be far away, as capital spending is now growing at a 15-20% rate in the current quarter," said Deutshe Bank's Joseph LaVorgna. As well, Fed Governor Susan Bies, in a speech to the NY Forecasters Club, said "job growth may pick-up perhaps substantially over the course of the year."
BOTTOM LINE: The Durable Goods report makes me more confident in my 5%+ GDP prediction for 1Q. I am seeing comments by CEO's that lead me to believe that they FINALLY believe in the strength of the recovery. Their confidence, combined with recent data points showing a stretched labor force and some supply shortages, lends more credence to recent Fed talk of a pick-up in job creation soon. I didn't make any change today, thus leaving the Portfolio with 75% net long market exposure.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,145.34 +.15%
NASDAQ 2,032.69 +.48%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilding +2.05%
Networking +1.78%
Gaming +1.24%
Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.14%
Papers -.47%
Defense -.73%
Other
Crude Oil 35.27 -1.15%
Natural Gas 5.32 +1.99%
Gold 395.00 -.28%
Base Metals 112.90 +.13%
U.S. Dollar 87.63 +.44%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.05% +1.15%
VIX 14.81 -.80%
Put/Call .64 -15.79%
NYSE Arms .70 -10.26%
Market Movers
DRI +7.0% on 3Q outlook and multiple upgrades.
DCGN +26.1% on the announcement of a 7-year agreement with Merck to develop new medicines.
FCS +6.4% on upgrade to Outperform by Thomas Weisel.
NOVN +20.9% on better-than-expected 4Q and upgrade from W.R. Hambrecht.
SBUX -3.88% after saying recent strong trends aren't sustainable.
CENX -11.6% on better-than-expected 4Q earnings, but J.P. Morgan downgrades on outlook.
Homebuilders up across the board on TOL earnings.
Economic Data
Durable Goods orders fell 1.8%, below expectations of a gain of 1.4%.
Durable Goods ex transportation rose 2.0% vs. expectations of 1.8%.
Initial Jobless Claims rose to 350K last week vs. expectations of 345K.
New Home Sales were 1106K vs. expectations of 1075K.
Help Wanted Index was 38 last months vs. expectations of 39.
Recommendations
Morgan Stanley cut CHTR to Underweight. IRF raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel. NXTL cut to Neutral at CSFB. Goldman says INTC and AGR/A are favorites coming out of their tech conference. JWN cut to In-line at Goldman. TIF raised to Outperform at GS on improvement in Japan. GS reiterated Outperform on SYMC and raised estimates. Finally, GS upgraded WMT to Outperform. Citi Smith Barney is upgrading NSM to 1H. Citi reiterating Buy on AFCI and raising earnings estimates. Citi also positive on EXTR. Citi says it is still early in semi equipment cycle and sell-off is buying opportunity.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mostly higher Thursday afternoon, as shares of homebuilders rose on Toll Brother's earnings and tech shares continued their oversold bounce. Defense shares are pressuring the Dow. An Illinois couple is suing the federal government over restrictions on purchasing prescription drugs in Canada. Diane Swonk, chief economist for Bank One, told CNBC that U.S. manufacturers are seeing bottlenecks because they don't have enough workers, raw materials or supplies. Infineon Tech, the world's third largest chipmaker, is struggling with delivery problems as demand surpassed the company's capacity the CEO said. JC Penney's CEO said on CNBC it is attracting more younger customers. The U.S. lifted its ban on American travel to Libya to reward it for agreeing to dismantle nuclear programs. Disney's ABC network, last in ratings among the top 4, is getting a record average of $1.5M for 30 second commercials on its Sunday broadcast of the Academy Awards.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is having a very good day today as my shorts are down and longs are up. I have not made any changes yet and continue to maintain market exposure of 75% net long. I may close out some profitable shorts later as I uncover new long opportunities. The tone of the market is much better the last 2 days, I am not ruling out the possibility that the recent correction has run its course.
NASDAQ 2,032.69 +.48%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilding +2.05%
Networking +1.78%
Gaming +1.24%
Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.14%
Papers -.47%
Defense -.73%
Other
Crude Oil 35.27 -1.15%
Natural Gas 5.32 +1.99%
Gold 395.00 -.28%
Base Metals 112.90 +.13%
U.S. Dollar 87.63 +.44%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.05% +1.15%
VIX 14.81 -.80%
Put/Call .64 -15.79%
NYSE Arms .70 -10.26%
Market Movers
DRI +7.0% on 3Q outlook and multiple upgrades.
DCGN +26.1% on the announcement of a 7-year agreement with Merck to develop new medicines.
FCS +6.4% on upgrade to Outperform by Thomas Weisel.
NOVN +20.9% on better-than-expected 4Q and upgrade from W.R. Hambrecht.
SBUX -3.88% after saying recent strong trends aren't sustainable.
CENX -11.6% on better-than-expected 4Q earnings, but J.P. Morgan downgrades on outlook.
Homebuilders up across the board on TOL earnings.
Economic Data
Durable Goods orders fell 1.8%, below expectations of a gain of 1.4%.
Durable Goods ex transportation rose 2.0% vs. expectations of 1.8%.
Initial Jobless Claims rose to 350K last week vs. expectations of 345K.
New Home Sales were 1106K vs. expectations of 1075K.
Help Wanted Index was 38 last months vs. expectations of 39.
Recommendations
Morgan Stanley cut CHTR to Underweight. IRF raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel. NXTL cut to Neutral at CSFB. Goldman says INTC and AGR/A are favorites coming out of their tech conference. JWN cut to In-line at Goldman. TIF raised to Outperform at GS on improvement in Japan. GS reiterated Outperform on SYMC and raised estimates. Finally, GS upgraded WMT to Outperform. Citi Smith Barney is upgrading NSM to 1H. Citi reiterating Buy on AFCI and raising earnings estimates. Citi also positive on EXTR. Citi says it is still early in semi equipment cycle and sell-off is buying opportunity.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mostly higher Thursday afternoon, as shares of homebuilders rose on Toll Brother's earnings and tech shares continued their oversold bounce. Defense shares are pressuring the Dow. An Illinois couple is suing the federal government over restrictions on purchasing prescription drugs in Canada. Diane Swonk, chief economist for Bank One, told CNBC that U.S. manufacturers are seeing bottlenecks because they don't have enough workers, raw materials or supplies. Infineon Tech, the world's third largest chipmaker, is struggling with delivery problems as demand surpassed the company's capacity the CEO said. JC Penney's CEO said on CNBC it is attracting more younger customers. The U.S. lifted its ban on American travel to Libya to reward it for agreeing to dismantle nuclear programs. Disney's ABC network, last in ratings among the top 4, is getting a record average of $1.5M for 30 second commercials on its Sunday broadcast of the Academy Awards.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is having a very good day today as my shorts are down and longs are up. I have not made any changes yet and continue to maintain market exposure of 75% net long. I may close out some profitable shorts later as I uncover new long opportunities. The tone of the market is much better the last 2 days, I am not ruling out the possibility that the recent correction has run its course.
Thursday Watch
Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
AEOS/.55
ADSK/.29
CPN/-.11
CHINA/.03
DECK/.08
EASI/.54
GPS/.37
JCP/.80
KSS/.69
MCDTA/.01
PWR/.04
TOL/.60
MRVL/.28
Splits
None of note
Economic Data
Durable Goods Orders expected to increase 1.4% in January vs. .3% in December.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims estimated at 345K vs. 344K the prior week.
New Home Sales estimated at 1075K in January vs. 1060K in December.
Help Wanted Index estimated at 39 in January vs. 38 in December.
Late-Night News
Microsoft Corp.'s Japanese unit was raided by Japan's Fair Trade Commission for suspected violation of the nation's Antimonopoly Law. China warned of escalating tension if Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian holds a public referendum on China relations in tandem with the March 20 presidential election, the official China Daily reported. Japanese retail sales post biggest gain in 7 years. More Americans are traveling overseas recently, as passport applications rose 13% from Oct. to this week, on pace to set an annual record, the Wall Street Journal said. Samsung, Hynix, Infineon and Micron are among companies that are being investigated by a federal grand jury in San Francisco for accusations of price-fixing, the WSJ said. Soaring U.S. lumber prices shouldn't affect homebuilders because they buy at volume discounts and lock in prices as much as a year in advance, the Journal reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian markets are mostly up, ranging from -.50% to +1.25%.
S&P 500 indicated +.10%.
NASDAQ indicated +.14%.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect to see a follow-through rally tomorrow on a strong durable goods report, better-than-expected earnings and a continuation of the oversold bounce from tech. I may take the Portfolio up to 100% net long, depending on the morning's opportunities.
Company/Estimate
AEOS/.55
ADSK/.29
CPN/-.11
CHINA/.03
DECK/.08
EASI/.54
GPS/.37
JCP/.80
KSS/.69
MCDTA/.01
PWR/.04
TOL/.60
MRVL/.28
Splits
None of note
Economic Data
Durable Goods Orders expected to increase 1.4% in January vs. .3% in December.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims estimated at 345K vs. 344K the prior week.
New Home Sales estimated at 1075K in January vs. 1060K in December.
Help Wanted Index estimated at 39 in January vs. 38 in December.
Late-Night News
Microsoft Corp.'s Japanese unit was raided by Japan's Fair Trade Commission for suspected violation of the nation's Antimonopoly Law. China warned of escalating tension if Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian holds a public referendum on China relations in tandem with the March 20 presidential election, the official China Daily reported. Japanese retail sales post biggest gain in 7 years. More Americans are traveling overseas recently, as passport applications rose 13% from Oct. to this week, on pace to set an annual record, the Wall Street Journal said. Samsung, Hynix, Infineon and Micron are among companies that are being investigated by a federal grand jury in San Francisco for accusations of price-fixing, the WSJ said. Soaring U.S. lumber prices shouldn't affect homebuilders because they buy at volume discounts and lock in prices as much as a year in advance, the Journal reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian markets are mostly up, ranging from -.50% to +1.25%.
S&P 500 indicated +.10%.
NASDAQ indicated +.14%.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect to see a follow-through rally tomorrow on a strong durable goods report, better-than-expected earnings and a continuation of the oversold bounce from tech. I may take the Portfolio up to 100% net long, depending on the morning's opportunities.
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