The coming week is relatively light on market-moving economic reports. However, there are a few important earnings announcements scheduled for release. Scheduled economic reports include ISM Non-Manufacturing, Import Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims and Wholesales Inventories. The ISM Non-Manufacturing is the most import release this week. It is estimated at 61.5 for March vs. 60.8 in February.
Alcoa(AA), Genentech(DNA), Research In Motion(RIMM), Yahoo!(YHOO), General Electric(GE), Abbott Labs(ABT) and Rite Aid(RAD) are some of the more important companies that release quarterly earnings this week. The FedEx(FDX) Investors and Lenders meeting, the Dell(DELL) Analyst meeting and the Brocade(BRCD) Annual Stockholders meeting are all scheduled this week, as well. Finally, the Dow re-shuffling occurs on Thursday.
BOTTOM LINE: Anxieties over violence in Iraq, higher interest rates and the market's short-term overbought technical position will likely lead to a consolidation for U.S. stocks during this holiday-shortened week. However, positive news on the earnings front and lower energy prices should keep any pullback in check.
Sunday, April 04, 2004
Chart of the Week
ISM Manufacturing
BOTTOM LINE: The ISM Manufacturing Index is at its highest level since 1983. Much like the improvement in Japan, its improvement is dismissed as just another blip up on the way down. I believe this analysis is incorrect. In my opinion, manufacturing is in the very early stages of a multi-year upturn.
BOTTOM LINE: The ISM Manufacturing Index is at its highest level since 1983. Much like the improvement in Japan, its improvement is dismissed as just another blip up on the way down. I believe this analysis is incorrect. In my opinion, manufacturing is in the very early stages of a multi-year upturn.
Market Week in Review
S&P 500 1,141.81 +3.05% for the week.
U.S. equity markets rose all week on better-than-expected earnings reports, multiple corporate takeovers, falling energy prices and strong manufacturing and employment reports. Best Buy(BBY), Circuit City(CC), Allegheny Technologies(ATI), Schnitzer Steel(SCHN), Autodesk(ADSK), WalMart(WMT) and PepsiCo(PEP) all made positive statements regarding the strength of their businesses. Hollywood Entertainment(HLYW), Tularik(TLRK), Millennium Chemicals(MCH) and Arch Wireless(AWIN) all announced their acquisition this week, continuing a very strong trend since the beginning of the year.
Crude Oil fell 3.4% for the week as traders took profits on OPEC's 4% production cut. As well, speculation the Bush administration would implement measures to cut U.S. demand pressured crude prices. This resulted in outperformance by the Airline sector(+8.6%) and underperformance by the Oil service sector(+.59%) for the week.
The very strong ISM Manufacturing report and Friday's blow-out jobs report were the main catalysts for U.S. stocks throughout the week. However, these great reports sent bond prices lower for the week, resulting in a rise in the 10-yr. T-note yield to 4.14%. This led to outperformance by the technology sector and underformance by the financials and homebuilders for the week.
Another market-moving announcement came Thursday when Dow Jones reported its first changes to the Dow average since 1999. Eastman Kodak(EK), International Paper(IP) and AT&T(T) will be removed this Thursday in favor of American International Group(AIG), Verizon Communications(VZ) and Pfizer(PFE).
BOTTOM LINE: This was a very good week for the bulls. The NASDAQ broke its recent downtrend on Friday with a gap-up move on good volume and breadth. I think tech stocks will outperform this quarter, led by semiconductors. The SOX fell 18.4% from its recent highs over the last couple of months, while fundamentals continued to improve. I suspect this semi cycle will last longer than is currently expected, thus making the recent decline a significant buying opportunity. Oil Service stocks have corrected about 10% from their recent highs. This group may see a little more deterioration in the short-run as crude moves towards $30/bbl., however long-term investors should begin adding to favorite longs now as current weakness in energy prices is only temporary in nature. Homebuilders are up 92.6% over the last 12 months. This stunning performance, combined with Fed rate-hike fears, will lead to more profit-taking in the short-run. I expect this group to fall over 15% from its recent highs. Companies that build for the low-end market should see their stocks decline the most.
U.S. equity markets rose all week on better-than-expected earnings reports, multiple corporate takeovers, falling energy prices and strong manufacturing and employment reports. Best Buy(BBY), Circuit City(CC), Allegheny Technologies(ATI), Schnitzer Steel(SCHN), Autodesk(ADSK), WalMart(WMT) and PepsiCo(PEP) all made positive statements regarding the strength of their businesses. Hollywood Entertainment(HLYW), Tularik(TLRK), Millennium Chemicals(MCH) and Arch Wireless(AWIN) all announced their acquisition this week, continuing a very strong trend since the beginning of the year.
Crude Oil fell 3.4% for the week as traders took profits on OPEC's 4% production cut. As well, speculation the Bush administration would implement measures to cut U.S. demand pressured crude prices. This resulted in outperformance by the Airline sector(+8.6%) and underperformance by the Oil service sector(+.59%) for the week.
The very strong ISM Manufacturing report and Friday's blow-out jobs report were the main catalysts for U.S. stocks throughout the week. However, these great reports sent bond prices lower for the week, resulting in a rise in the 10-yr. T-note yield to 4.14%. This led to outperformance by the technology sector and underformance by the financials and homebuilders for the week.
Another market-moving announcement came Thursday when Dow Jones reported its first changes to the Dow average since 1999. Eastman Kodak(EK), International Paper(IP) and AT&T(T) will be removed this Thursday in favor of American International Group(AIG), Verizon Communications(VZ) and Pfizer(PFE).
BOTTOM LINE: This was a very good week for the bulls. The NASDAQ broke its recent downtrend on Friday with a gap-up move on good volume and breadth. I think tech stocks will outperform this quarter, led by semiconductors. The SOX fell 18.4% from its recent highs over the last couple of months, while fundamentals continued to improve. I suspect this semi cycle will last longer than is currently expected, thus making the recent decline a significant buying opportunity. Oil Service stocks have corrected about 10% from their recent highs. This group may see a little more deterioration in the short-run as crude moves towards $30/bbl., however long-term investors should begin adding to favorite longs now as current weakness in energy prices is only temporary in nature. Homebuilders are up 92.6% over the last 12 months. This stunning performance, combined with Fed rate-hike fears, will lead to more profit-taking in the short-run. I expect this group to fall over 15% from its recent highs. Companies that build for the low-end market should see their stocks decline the most.
Saturday, April 03, 2004
Economic Week in Review
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 134.10 (no update this week)
The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for March fell to 57.6 vs. 63.6 the prior month and expectations of 61.0. "The upsurge in manufacturing activity that has occurred over the last several months is continuing, but at a slower pace," said Kevin Logan, a senior economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.
The Producer Price Index for February rose .1% vs. .3% the prior month and expectations of .3%. The PPI Ex Food & Energy for February rose .1% vs. .3% the prior month and expectations of .1%. "People will probably express some relief at the small gain in producer prices after the increase in January, but the bigger story is in the early stages of production," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.
The ISM Manufacturing Index for March rose to 62.5 vs. 61.4 the prior month and expectations of 59.5. The ISM Prices Paid Index for March rose to 86.0 vs. 81.5 the prior month and estimates of 82.0. The ISM Manufacturing Index and its employment component were both near two-decade highs. Companies produced more cars, electronics and business equipment as they attempted to restock depleted shelves. "The breadth of the expansion as well as its speed is breathtaking. No need for fancy over-thinking. Plain and simple, this report tells us that the manufacturing sector is smoking," said Stephen Stanley.
The world economy, led by Asia and the U.S., is projected to grow 4.75% this year, the strongest performance in a generation, according to a semiannual forecast from the Institute for International Economics. "It is clear we are in boom right now -- a U.S. boom, a world boom," C. Fred Bergsten, director of the research group, told an audience at its Washington headquarters.
The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for March was 308,000 vs. 46,000 the prior month and expectations of 120,000. Manufacturing Payrolls were unchanged for March vs. a loss of 4,000 the prior month and expectations of a 5,000 gain. The Unemployment Rate for March was 5.7% vs. 5.6% the prior month and expectations of 5.6%. The 308,000 jobs added was the largest gain since the stock market bubble burst in early 2000. Strength was apparent across the board. Alan Binder, former Fed vice chairman said, "Once job creation is firmly established at a solid pace, the Fed is going to start raising rates."
BOTTOM LINE: The key takeaway for the week is that the U.S. economy is in great shape and getting better. The one missing component of this recovery was job creation. Historically, significant job creation occurs 6-9 months after the first real burst in economic growth coming out of a recession. This happened in the 3rd quarter of last year and right on schedule the U.S. economy has its first exceptional jobs report. I now believe the Fed will raise rates at the June 29-30 meeting as I expect another really good jobs report in the next 2 months and hints of inflation are cropping up in the early stages of production. The market is currently expecting the Fed to make its first move at the August 10 meeting.
The fact that the economy added the most jobs since early 2000 and is growing at the fastest rate since the early 80's is even more impressive considering the environment at the time of the stock market bubble. Many companies employing hundreds of thousands of people were created on pure hype. Inexperienced and corrupt management teams, with faulty business models, used "creative" accounting to boost their stock prices to sell more shares to the public. This gave them the capital to hire more people to rapidly increase sales at the expense of profits, giving the appearance of growth. In the current environment, companies with good business models, selling real products, using relatively little "creative" accounting are the most profitable in history. It took awhile to burn off the excess capacity generated by the greatest economic bubble in U.S. history. This is why the recovery appeared to be in slow-motion. However, beginning with the 8.2% growth of the 3rd quarter of 03, the fastest since the early 80's, and now with the best job creation since the stock market bubble in 2000, the U.S. economy is in a full-fledged boom.
The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for March fell to 57.6 vs. 63.6 the prior month and expectations of 61.0. "The upsurge in manufacturing activity that has occurred over the last several months is continuing, but at a slower pace," said Kevin Logan, a senior economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.
The Producer Price Index for February rose .1% vs. .3% the prior month and expectations of .3%. The PPI Ex Food & Energy for February rose .1% vs. .3% the prior month and expectations of .1%. "People will probably express some relief at the small gain in producer prices after the increase in January, but the bigger story is in the early stages of production," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.
The ISM Manufacturing Index for March rose to 62.5 vs. 61.4 the prior month and expectations of 59.5. The ISM Prices Paid Index for March rose to 86.0 vs. 81.5 the prior month and estimates of 82.0. The ISM Manufacturing Index and its employment component were both near two-decade highs. Companies produced more cars, electronics and business equipment as they attempted to restock depleted shelves. "The breadth of the expansion as well as its speed is breathtaking. No need for fancy over-thinking. Plain and simple, this report tells us that the manufacturing sector is smoking," said Stephen Stanley.
The world economy, led by Asia and the U.S., is projected to grow 4.75% this year, the strongest performance in a generation, according to a semiannual forecast from the Institute for International Economics. "It is clear we are in boom right now -- a U.S. boom, a world boom," C. Fred Bergsten, director of the research group, told an audience at its Washington headquarters.
The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for March was 308,000 vs. 46,000 the prior month and expectations of 120,000. Manufacturing Payrolls were unchanged for March vs. a loss of 4,000 the prior month and expectations of a 5,000 gain. The Unemployment Rate for March was 5.7% vs. 5.6% the prior month and expectations of 5.6%. The 308,000 jobs added was the largest gain since the stock market bubble burst in early 2000. Strength was apparent across the board. Alan Binder, former Fed vice chairman said, "Once job creation is firmly established at a solid pace, the Fed is going to start raising rates."
BOTTOM LINE: The key takeaway for the week is that the U.S. economy is in great shape and getting better. The one missing component of this recovery was job creation. Historically, significant job creation occurs 6-9 months after the first real burst in economic growth coming out of a recession. This happened in the 3rd quarter of last year and right on schedule the U.S. economy has its first exceptional jobs report. I now believe the Fed will raise rates at the June 29-30 meeting as I expect another really good jobs report in the next 2 months and hints of inflation are cropping up in the early stages of production. The market is currently expecting the Fed to make its first move at the August 10 meeting.
The fact that the economy added the most jobs since early 2000 and is growing at the fastest rate since the early 80's is even more impressive considering the environment at the time of the stock market bubble. Many companies employing hundreds of thousands of people were created on pure hype. Inexperienced and corrupt management teams, with faulty business models, used "creative" accounting to boost their stock prices to sell more shares to the public. This gave them the capital to hire more people to rapidly increase sales at the expense of profits, giving the appearance of growth. In the current environment, companies with good business models, selling real products, using relatively little "creative" accounting are the most profitable in history. It took awhile to burn off the excess capacity generated by the greatest economic bubble in U.S. history. This is why the recovery appeared to be in slow-motion. However, beginning with the 8.2% growth of the 3rd quarter of 03, the fastest since the early 80's, and now with the best job creation since the stock market bubble in 2000, the U.S. economy is in a full-fledged boom.
Weekly Scoreboard
Indices
S&P 500 1,141.81 +3.05%
Dow 10,470.59 +2.52%
NASDAQ 2,057.17 +4.96%
Russell 2000 603.45 +5.33%
Wilshire 5000 11,202.42 +3.34%
Volatility(VIX) 15.64 -9.75%
AAII Bullish % 55.17 +75.25%
US Dollar 88.51 -.32%
CRB 281.25 +.90%
Futures Spot Prices
Gold 422.50 -.24%
Crude Oil 34.39 -3.40%
Natural Gas 5.81 +5.77%
Base Metals 114.77 +2.37%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.14% +8.2%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.52% +2.22%
Leading Sectors
Broadband +9.38%
Airlines +8.62%
Broadcasting +7.51%
Lagging Sectors
Banks +1.06%
Oil Service +.59%
Homebuilders -2.23%
*% Gain or loss for the week
S&P 500 1,141.81 +3.05%
Dow 10,470.59 +2.52%
NASDAQ 2,057.17 +4.96%
Russell 2000 603.45 +5.33%
Wilshire 5000 11,202.42 +3.34%
Volatility(VIX) 15.64 -9.75%
AAII Bullish % 55.17 +75.25%
US Dollar 88.51 -.32%
CRB 281.25 +.90%
Futures Spot Prices
Gold 422.50 -.24%
Crude Oil 34.39 -3.40%
Natural Gas 5.81 +5.77%
Base Metals 114.77 +2.37%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.14% +8.2%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.52% +2.22%
Leading Sectors
Broadband +9.38%
Airlines +8.62%
Broadcasting +7.51%
Lagging Sectors
Banks +1.06%
Oil Service +.59%
Homebuilders -2.23%
*% Gain or loss for the week
Friday, April 02, 2004
Friday Close
S&P 500 1,141.81 +.85%
NASDAQ 2,057.17 +2.09%
Leading Sectors
Semis +3.74%
Airlines +3.59%
Broadband +3.46%
Lagging Sectors
Tobacco -.57%
Banks -1.20%
Homebuilders -3.95%
Other
Crude Oil 34.39 +.35%
Natural Gas 5.81 +.82%
Gold 422.50 -1.47%
Base Metals 114.77 -.26%
U.S. Dollar 88.51 +1.49%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.14% +6.83%
VIX 15.64 -6.07%
Put/Call .66 +15.79%
NYSE Arms .50 -43.18%
After-hours Movers
SEBL +4.72% after raising 1Q estimates and saying revenue will come in at high end of forecasts.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MO, WAG, RCL, HD, WMT, PFE, reiterated Underperform on BMY and TER.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished sharply higher Friday on a much stronger-than-expected jobs report. The economy added 308,000 jobs in March, 157% above economist's expectations and the most since the stock market bubble burst in early 2000. After the close, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Dudley told CNBC that the Fed will likely wait for a tighter labor market before raising interest rates. The CEO of Korn/Ferry, an international executive search firm, said on CNBC he sees employment improving for the foreseeable future and that the employers he talks to say "all their people are working to the gills."
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio had a very good day today as my technology longs rose substantially. I did not trade in the afternoon, leaving the Portfolio with 100% net long market exposure. This was a very good day for the bulls. I expected a sell-off on a much better-than-expected jobs report that sent bonds tumbling. This did not happen and the NASDAQ finished at its highs for the day on strong volume and good breadth, breaking up through its recent downtrend line. While I expect the market to test its highs for the year in the next 6 weeks, the major indices are getting extended short-term.
NASDAQ 2,057.17 +2.09%
Leading Sectors
Semis +3.74%
Airlines +3.59%
Broadband +3.46%
Lagging Sectors
Tobacco -.57%
Banks -1.20%
Homebuilders -3.95%
Other
Crude Oil 34.39 +.35%
Natural Gas 5.81 +.82%
Gold 422.50 -1.47%
Base Metals 114.77 -.26%
U.S. Dollar 88.51 +1.49%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.14% +6.83%
VIX 15.64 -6.07%
Put/Call .66 +15.79%
NYSE Arms .50 -43.18%
After-hours Movers
SEBL +4.72% after raising 1Q estimates and saying revenue will come in at high end of forecasts.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MO, WAG, RCL, HD, WMT, PFE, reiterated Underperform on BMY and TER.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished sharply higher Friday on a much stronger-than-expected jobs report. The economy added 308,000 jobs in March, 157% above economist's expectations and the most since the stock market bubble burst in early 2000. After the close, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Dudley told CNBC that the Fed will likely wait for a tighter labor market before raising interest rates. The CEO of Korn/Ferry, an international executive search firm, said on CNBC he sees employment improving for the foreseeable future and that the employers he talks to say "all their people are working to the gills."
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio had a very good day today as my technology longs rose substantially. I did not trade in the afternoon, leaving the Portfolio with 100% net long market exposure. This was a very good day for the bulls. I expected a sell-off on a much better-than-expected jobs report that sent bonds tumbling. This did not happen and the NASDAQ finished at its highs for the day on strong volume and good breadth, breaking up through its recent downtrend line. While I expect the market to test its highs for the year in the next 6 weeks, the major indices are getting extended short-term.
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