Thursday, April 08, 2004

Thursday Close

S&P 500 1,139.32 -.11%
NASDAQ 2,052.88 +.13%


Leading Sectors
Internet +1.85%
Energy +1.09%
Semis +.90%

Lagging Sectors
Airlines -1.14%
Homebuilders -1.62%
Retail -2.18%

Other
Crude Oil 37.14 +2.74%
Natural Gas 5.94 +1.18%
Gold 420.70 -.71%
Base Metals 111.52 -.91%
U.S. Dollar 89.05 +.03%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.19% unch.
VIX 16.26 +3.17%
Put/Call .71 +1.43%
NYSE Arms .83 -55.14%

After-hours Movers
SCSS +4.84% after boosting 1Q sales and earnings forecast.
CGPI +22.64% after announcing that it settled a patent infringement case against Mutual Pharmaceutical Co.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on ACN, MUR and SBC. GS reiterated Underperform on ATI. NPSP may be acquired by a larger rival that's attracted to the drugmaker's line of products, Business Week reported. MWD trades substantially below other brokerages at a time when its profits show "meaningful improvement," Business Week said.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks were mixed Thursday ahead of the three-day weekend, as geopolitical concerns offset strong earnings reports from several bell-weather U.S. companies. After the close, FedEx CEO Fred Smith told CNBC the economy is recovering and concerns about Iraq aren't hurting business. The NASD launched an industry-wide investigation into fee-based brokerage accounts, Dow Jones Newswires reported. The U.S. Senate passed legislation that lets companies struggling with stock-market losses contribute $80B less to their pension plans, sending the bill to President Bush for his signature. Reliant Resources, two employees and two former employees were indicted on criminal charges for shutting down power plants during the California energy crisis in 2000 to drive up electricity prices.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher on the day as my technology longs rose and homebuilding shorts fell. I added a few new long positions into the afternoon weakness, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure back to 75% net long. I think terrorism/war fears and traders early exits for the weekend resulted in an artificially weak day. I expect Monday will be better for the bulls, barring any new terrorist acts or a worsening of the situation in Iraq.

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,142.74 +.19%
NASDAQ 2,061.41 +.54%


Leading Sectors
Internet +2.08%
Energy +1.37%
Semis +1.08%

Lagging Sectors
Gaming -.45%
Homebuilders -1.13%
Retail -1.91%

Other
Crude Oil 37.00 +2.35%
Natural Gas 5.90 +.56%
Gold 420.70 -.68%
Base Metals 111.52 -.91%
U.S. Dollar 89.05 +.87%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.19% +.66%
VIX 16.17 +2.60%
Put/Call .69 -1.43%
NYSE Arms .78 -57.84%

Market Movers
YHOO +15.0% after beating 1Q estimates, raising guidance and announcing 2-for-1 split.
IPIX +56.5% after announcing a reseller agreement with Abstract Security.
MAGS +10.2% on increased worldwide concern about terrorist attacks.
ACCL -12.01% after cutting revenue forecast.
INSP +12.91% on YHOO earnings and upgrade to Buy at Wedbush Morgan.
AH -8.1% on lawsuit by Assoc. of Police Organizations relating to faulty bulletproof vests.
FRED -9.4% on weaker-than-expected same-store-sales.
AGU -10.22% after lowering 1st Half earnings guidance.

Economic Data
Initial Jobless Claims for last week 328K vs. expectations of 340K.
Continuing Claims 3010K vs. 3023K forecast.
Wholesale Inventories for February +1.2% vs. +.3% forecast.

Recommendations
JNY raised to Outperform at CSFB, target $42. CHK raised to Outperform at CSFB, target $16. IPAS raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on YHOO, AMLN, GE, MO, DELL, DNA and ALL. GS reiterated Underperform on POT. GS said strong results at AVT bode well for the semiconductor sector. Citi Smith Barney said FCS, CY, IRF, IDTI, MXIM and XLNX should guide higher on earnings reports, INTC and AGRA may guide lower. GS raised estimates for FD and reiterated Outperform.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mostly higher mid-day as technology shares respond favorably to recent earning reports. The U.S. Federal Communications Commission will deny AT&T's request that it may be exempt from paying hundreds of millions of dollars to local telephone companies for fees related to Internet-based calls, the Washington Post reported. XM Satellite Radio(XMSR) Chairman Gary Parsons told CNBC the company expects to add more than 2.8M new subscribers this year and is working to reduce the cost of acquiring them. Genentech(DNA) President Myrtle Potter told CNBC that physicians haven't overstocked Avastin, indicating sales of the new cancer drug will remain strong. The number of Americans filing initial claims for jobless benefits fell to 328,000 last week, the lowest since President Clinton's last week in office, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures rose for a third day after the Energy Department forecast U.S. gasoline prices will increase to a record this summer. Wal-Mart, J.C. Penney and Target said March sales were stronger than expected as shoppers spent higher tax refunds and demand for spring dresses and blouses surged, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is having a good day as my shorts are lower and tech longs are rising. I took profits in a few positions on the strong open, leaving market exposure at 50% net long. Rising energy prices, Condoleezza Rice's testimony, terrorism/war fears and traders speculation that retail sales are peaking are all contributing to a relatively muted reaction to very good earnings and employment news. I expect U.S. indices will remain under slight pressure until the final hour of trading. Most hedgers and sellers will finish their repositioning by then, allowing the major indices to rise into the close. However, with light holiday volume, downside volatility is always a possibility. Barring a terrorist attack or deterioration in the Iraq situation over the weekend, I expect stocks to rise Monday as investors mull the positive news over the holidays.

Thursday Watch

Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
ABT/.56
CKEC/-.15
FAST/.34
GE/.32
GTK/.67
NET/.11
RAD/.08
SUP/.50

Splits
CRDN 3-for-2

Economic Data
Initial Jobless Claims for last week estimated at 340K vs. 342K prior week.
Continuing Claims estimated at 3023K vs. 3062K prior week.
Wholesale Inventories for March estimated +.3% vs. +.1% prior month.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on STLD, CIT, AXP and KRB.

Late-Night News
Asian stocks are mostly higher on strong performances by U.S. technology shares in after-hours trading. Ira Zar, former chief financial officer of Computer Associates, has agreed to plead guilty tomorrow to at least one felony charge, the Wall Street Journal reported. Wire transfers indirectly link the Saudi Embassy in Washington with suspected al-Qaeda operatives in the U.S., Newsweek reported. Copper, which climbed 30% in London in the first quarter, may stay near eight-year highs through June as demand grows in the U.S. and China and inventories dwindle, according to a recent survey, Bloomberg reported. Pfizer's Torcetrapib, an experimental heart medicine that the company plans to combine with the best-selling drug Lipitor, significantly increased patients' levels of a beneficial type of cholesterol in a study, Bloomberg said.

Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices unch. to +.75%.
S&P 500 indicated +.39%.
NASDAQ indicated +.77%.

BOTTOM LINE: Tomorrow should be a good day for U.S. stocks as DELL, YHOO, DNA and RIMM all reported very good news. I expect shares to hit their highs by mid-day, thus I may take profits into this strength. Traders will likely take profits in the afternoon heading into the 3-day holiday weekend on terrorism/war concerns.

Wednesday, April 07, 2004

Wednesday Close

S&P 500 1,140.53 -.66%
NASDAQ 2,050.24 -.47%


Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +1.32%
Oil Service +1.03%
Fashion +.50%

Lagging Sectors
Internet -.94%
Airlines -1.22%
Telecom -1.34%

Other
Crude Oil 36.27 +3.72%
Natural Gas 5.89 1.45%
Gold 424.30 +1.07%
Base Metals 112.54 -.25%
U.S. Dollar 88.27 -.39%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.16% +.24%
VIX 15.76 +2.87%
Put/Call .70 -14.63%
NYSE Arms 1.85 +103.30%

After-hours Movers
YHOO +9.7% after beating 1Q estimates, raising 2Q and 04 guidance and announcing 2-for-1 split.
HOTT -4.84% on disappointing March same-store-sales.
BSTE +5.71% after substantially raising 1Q estimates.
Internet-related companies up across the board on YHOO news.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs raised estimates on ALL and reiterated Outperform. GS reiterated Outperform on YHOO, IGT, AGI, UTX, IBM, PFE and DNA.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished slightly lower Wednesday on rising energy prices, violence in Iraq, lower-than-expected earnings from Alcoa/Seagate and profit-taking. After the close, Dell(DELL), Research in Motion(RIMM), Genentech(DNA) and Yahoo!(YHOO) all made positive announcements regarding business conditions. France, Russia and China blocked enforcement of United Nations sanctions of Iraq, contributing to former dictator Saddam Hussein's theft of money from the oil-for-food program, Bloomberg reported. The U.S.-led coalition in Iraq vowed to defeat the Mahdi militia of fugitive cleric al-Sadr while attempting to kill and capture militants in the town of Fallujah, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio had a relatively good day. I added a few tech positions into afternoon weakness, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 75% net long. Considering the news, I thought the indices held up very well. After-hours reports were very encouraging as multiple companies made positive market-moving announcements. Condoleezza Rice's testimony tomorrow may affect trading as well. I expect stocks to open higher in the morning and peak before mid-day as investors take profits ahead of the holiday weekend on terror/war fears.

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,140.67 -.65%
NASDAQ 2,044.85 -.73%


Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.92%
Broadcasting +1.21%
Energy +.58%

Lagging Sectors
Telecom -1.27%
Compute Boxmakers -1.32%
Airlines -1.61%

Other
Crude Oil 36.25 +3.55%
Natural Gas 5.91 +1.74%
Gold 424.10 +1.02%
Base Metals 113.22 +.35%
U.S. Dollar 88.23 -.44%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.15% unch.
VIX 16.32 +6.53%
Put/Call .64 -21.95%
NYSE Arms 1.58 +73.63%

Market Movers
STX -7.95% after lowering 3Q forecast and multiple downgrades.
TASR +7.65% after CEO told CNBC that most of the 40 deaths associated with stun gun use were a result of drug overdoses.
AA -4.03% after slight 1Q earnings shortfall and profit-taking.
VISG +21.7% as homeland security stocks continue their surge.
KMG -5.28% after announcing acquisition of WRC for $2.5B and multiple downgrades.

Economic Data
None of note.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AMGN, DNA, AA, DDR, EQT, DRE, ASN, EMC and UTX. GS says GCI, TRB and KRI are favorite newspaper picks ahead of earnings based on favorable visibility, leverage to ad cycle and good valuations. Goldman reiterated Buy on IBM, target $114. GS says STX miss is company-specific. GS sees another 10% downside for REITs. MNY downgraded to Underperform at GS. GS reiterated Underperform on KMG, JBLU and FRNT. The Pre Legislative Scrutiny Committee released its draft report on the UK gambling bill. Goldman says it is generally negative for casinos and slot makers looking for expansion opportunities in this market. Citi Smith Barney rates OATS a Buy ahead of quarter, $17 target. Citi downgraded STX to 3H, target $7. Citi reiterated 1H on BJ, target $30. Citi reiterated 1H on NMGA, $68 target. Citi reiterated 1M on AA, $48 target. CMI raised to Outperform at CSFB. NYT raised to Buy at Bank of America. ATRX rated Strong Buy at Raymond James. LOW raised to Strong Buy at RJ.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are lower mid-day on rising energy prices, violence in Iraq, weaker-than-expected earnings reports from Alcoa/Seagate and profit-taking. New Jersey will give Atlantic City casinos $92M to fund the expansion of hotels and other projects unrelated to gambling, in a deal that also will keep racetracks free of slot machines, the Star-Ledger reported. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist plans to introduce a revised version of legislation aimed at creating a $114B asbestos compensation fund and ending litigation, the Wall Street Journal reported. Intel plans to sell processors and supporting chips that are almost lead-free by the third quarter and is continuing talks with China about a wireless-computing standard, Reuters reported. Returns on junk bonds may lag this month as above-average new supply saps investor demand for existing issues, Bloomberg reported. The European Commission trimmed its economic growth forecast, said risks to the recovery are mounting and warned that six of the 12 countries using the euro will break budget-deficit rules in 04. Wal-Mart lost a ballot initiative in Los Angeles to build a retail complex amid criticism from local officials that the development would hurt small businesses. Crude oil futures soared after the Energy Dept. reported that inventories unexpectedly fell from a 19-week high last week, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is having a good day as one of my tech positions is up substantially and shorts fall. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still 50% net long. Stocks are holding up relatively well considering the overnight news. Investors anticipating strong reports from GE and YHOO are likely providing a floor under equities. I may selectively add exposure into any extreme weakness in the afternoon.

Wednesday Watch

Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
CBK/.21
CKR/-.08
STZ/.54
DAB/.41
DNA/.32
YHOO/-.11

Splits
None of note.

Economic Data
Import Price Index estimated +.6% for March vs. +.4% prior month.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on EK. GS says they expect FLEX and PLXS to surprise on the upside and raise guidance. GS says CLS is favorite EMS company for long-run. GS reiterated Outperform on UTX and GDT.

Late-Night News
Asian stocks are slightly on quiet trading. An Iraqi armed force killed 12 U.S. soldiers west of Baghdad as Donald Rumsfeld said coalition forces isolated the city of Fallujah, Bloomberg reported. Japan's foreign currency government bond rating was raised to Aaa from Aa1 by Moody's Investors Service, Bloomberg reported. Oracle's loss of a deal to provide the U.S. Justice Department with as much as $24M of software to a small competitor has boosted its case against antitrust authorities in its hostile bid for Peoplesoft, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices unch. to +.50%.
S&P 500 indicated -.17%.
NASDAQ indicated -.27%.

BOTTOM LINE: Technology shares will likely open lower in the morning on Seagate's(STX) disappointing earnings guidance. Anxiety over violence in Iraq may pressure shares as well. I will closely monitor the market's response to the Seagate news and make a decision on whether or not to add exposure on weakness or add new shorts to cut exposure.