Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
AMD/.033
AAPL/.10
BAC/1.80
CEC/.78
DAL/-3.02
ETN/.79
EXTR/-.01
HDI/.64
LRCX/.10
PGR/1.77
RMBS/.05
SNDK/.32
TXN/.21
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index for March estimated up .3% vs. up .3% prior month.
CPI Ex Food & Energy for March estimated up .2% vs. up .2% prior month.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on PH.
Late-Night News
Asian stocks are mostly lower on U.S. inflation worries. New York Attorney General Spitzer wants regulators to require that new telecommunications technologies such as Internet telephone calls be monitored, the Wall Street Journal reported. President Bush said a free Iraq is necessary to thwart terrorism and promote peace in the Middle East, and Muslim militants won't prevent the June 30 transfer of power to a new Iraqi government, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices -1.50% to +.25%.
S&P 500 indicated +.06%.
NASDAQ indicated -.03%.
BOTTOM LINE: U.S. stocks will likely rise or fall tomorrow on the CPI report. The market is very sensitive right now to any signs of inflation. Intel's report may lead to early weakness, however a benign CPI reading should result in a positive day for U.S. stocks. The Portfolio is 75% net long and I will make a decision after the CPI report on whether or not to increase exposure.
Wednesday, April 14, 2004
Tuesday, April 13, 2004
Tuesday Close
S&P 500 1,129.44 -1.38%
NASDAQ 2,030.08 -1.71%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +1.65%
Transports -.78%
Drugs -.80%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -3.14%
Nanotechnology -3.23%
Iron/Steel -3.78%
Other
Crude Oil 37.21 unch.
Natural Gas 5.79 unch.
Gold 407.50 -.05%
Base Metals 110.51 -.91%
U.S. Dollar 89.88 +.07%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.34% +2.68%
VIX 17.26 +12.96%
Put/Call .91 +21.33%
NYSE Arms 1.17 +44.44%
After-hours Movers
MWY +8.28% after Sumner Redstone, their biggest investor, said he may seek a board seat, boost his stake or take control of the company.
ADTN +6.72% after beating 4Q estimates.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on HD, CLX and BBY. Cramer, of TheStreet.com is recommending cable stocks.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower as a much stronger-than-expected retail sales report sparked inflation fears and sent interest rates higher. After the close, Blockbuster may pay a one-time dividend of $1B, or $4 to $6 a share, as part of a spin-off from Viacom, CNBC reported. Intel said its first-quarter net income almost doubled to $1.73B as the company boosted sales of its more profitable processors used in servers. Sales rose to $8.1B versus analysts' expectations of $8.16B.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio fell slightly today as my shorts fell substantially, offsetting most of the declines in my long positions. I did not trade today, leaving the Portfolio with 75% net long market exposure. I expect interest-rate sensitive stocks to remain under pressure for awhile.
NASDAQ 2,030.08 -1.71%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +1.65%
Transports -.78%
Drugs -.80%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -3.14%
Nanotechnology -3.23%
Iron/Steel -3.78%
Other
Crude Oil 37.21 unch.
Natural Gas 5.79 unch.
Gold 407.50 -.05%
Base Metals 110.51 -.91%
U.S. Dollar 89.88 +.07%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.34% +2.68%
VIX 17.26 +12.96%
Put/Call .91 +21.33%
NYSE Arms 1.17 +44.44%
After-hours Movers
MWY +8.28% after Sumner Redstone, their biggest investor, said he may seek a board seat, boost his stake or take control of the company.
ADTN +6.72% after beating 4Q estimates.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on HD, CLX and BBY. Cramer, of TheStreet.com is recommending cable stocks.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower as a much stronger-than-expected retail sales report sparked inflation fears and sent interest rates higher. After the close, Blockbuster may pay a one-time dividend of $1B, or $4 to $6 a share, as part of a spin-off from Viacom, CNBC reported. Intel said its first-quarter net income almost doubled to $1.73B as the company boosted sales of its more profitable processors used in servers. Sales rose to $8.1B versus analysts' expectations of $8.16B.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio fell slightly today as my shorts fell substantially, offsetting most of the declines in my long positions. I did not trade today, leaving the Portfolio with 75% net long market exposure. I expect interest-rate sensitive stocks to remain under pressure for awhile.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,135.16 -.88%
NASDAQ 2,044.56 -1.01%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +1.65%
Computer Service -.11%
Papers -.24%
Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -2.10%
Utilities -2.22%
Iron/Steel -2.75%
Other
Crude Oil 37.37 -1.24%
Natural Gas 5.82 -3.23%
Gold 408.50 -2.95%
Base Metals 110.51 -.91%
U.S. Dollar 89.91 +1.07%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.31% +1.88%
VIX 17.11 +11.98%
Put/Call .87 +16.0%
NYSE Arms .83 +2.47%
Market Movers
GSOF +37.42% on $380M acquisition by Pitney Bowes.
TSO +10.3% after significantly raising 1Q estimates.
LF +8.77% on Merrill upgrade to Buy.
NFI +17.5% on rebound from yesterday's fall after negative WSJ article.
PRX -9.66% after announcing $135M buyout of Kali Labs, lowering 1Q guidance.
Small/mid-cap security-related stocks down across the board on profit-taking after mania type runs.
Economic Data
Advance Retail Sales for March +1.8% vs. expectations of +.7%.
Retail Sales Less Autos for March +1.7% vs. expectations of .6%.
Business Inventories for February +.7% vs. expectations of +.5%.
Recommendations
DVN raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC. KWK lowered to Sector Underperform by CIBC. TDS cut to Sell at Legg Mason. CCI raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel. LF raised to Buy at Merrill, target $28. EYET rated new Buy at Merrill, target $45. ABT rated new Underperform at CSFB. MDT, GDT and BSX rated new Outperform at CSFB. WMGI rated new Buy at Bank of America. ESV rated Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $37. GSF rated Strong Buy at RJ, target $35. MXO and STX rated Underperform at RJ. TheStreet.com has a positive column on CUNO, saying it could be a buyout target. Cramer, of TheStreet.com, is recommending the April 30 calls on INTC for aggressive traders. TSC also has a positive column on RCKY. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on WMT, SPP, ROH, IGT, AGI and AYE. GS raised estimates on AMGN and BIIB, reiterating Outperform. Citi Smith Barney says to swap out of CPO and into BG. Citi reiterated 1H on CKFR, target $35. Citi rated PTV Buy, target $27. Citi rated SEE Buy, target $62. Citi says the pricing and lead-time environment in semis appears most positive for FCS, IRF, MXIM and LLTC.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are falling mid-day as the exceptionally strong retail sales reports resulted in rising interest rates, a rising U.S. dollar and falling commodity prices. Krispy Kreme(KKD) may open doughnut shops in Japan under a joint agreement with Global Dining, Dow Jones reported. Google's new free email service is facing scrutiny from a California state senator who wants to block it because the services' advertising violates privacy, Reuters reported. The median sale price of a home in Los Angeles County rose 29% in March to a record $375,000 as concern about rising rates spurred buying, the LA Times reported. A 37-year-old man in Washington state was arrested by federal agents and charged with possessing ricin, a deadly biological agent, the AP reported. Phelps Dodge and other companies that dig copper, silver and other metals are hiring workers and reopening mines as prices rise and demand for copper booms in China, the LA Times reported. Merrill Lynch said first-quarter profit rose 95% as revenue from bond trading and underwriting soared and an improving economy boosted fees from stock sales and mergers. Sales at U.S. retailers rose 1.8% in March, the biggest increase in a year, led by purchases of autos, furniture and building materials. Sales at building materials and garden supply stores rose 10.6%, the largest gain ever recorded. Economists at Morgan Stanley raised their estimate for 1Q GDP growth to 5.0%, Bloomberg reported. Pornographic "spam" must be labeled as such starting May 19, or senders will face fines, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is down today as my falling shorts are not enough to offset 75% net long market exposure. The yield on the 10-yr T-note broke through the top of its intermediate-term downtrend line at 4.22%. The top of the long-term downtrend line is around 5.75%. I still expect the Fed to begin raising rates at the June 29-30 meeting, while the market is expecting the first increase at the September 21 meeting. I also still expect a 1Q GDP number north of 5%, while current market expectations are for 4.6% growth. Finally, I expect the market to remain relatively weak throughout the day. I will likely add exposure into this weakness as I expect a bounce tomorrow on the President's speech, combined with falling energy prices and great earnings reports.
NASDAQ 2,044.56 -1.01%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +1.65%
Computer Service -.11%
Papers -.24%
Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -2.10%
Utilities -2.22%
Iron/Steel -2.75%
Other
Crude Oil 37.37 -1.24%
Natural Gas 5.82 -3.23%
Gold 408.50 -2.95%
Base Metals 110.51 -.91%
U.S. Dollar 89.91 +1.07%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.31% +1.88%
VIX 17.11 +11.98%
Put/Call .87 +16.0%
NYSE Arms .83 +2.47%
Market Movers
GSOF +37.42% on $380M acquisition by Pitney Bowes.
TSO +10.3% after significantly raising 1Q estimates.
LF +8.77% on Merrill upgrade to Buy.
NFI +17.5% on rebound from yesterday's fall after negative WSJ article.
PRX -9.66% after announcing $135M buyout of Kali Labs, lowering 1Q guidance.
Small/mid-cap security-related stocks down across the board on profit-taking after mania type runs.
Economic Data
Advance Retail Sales for March +1.8% vs. expectations of +.7%.
Retail Sales Less Autos for March +1.7% vs. expectations of .6%.
Business Inventories for February +.7% vs. expectations of +.5%.
Recommendations
DVN raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC. KWK lowered to Sector Underperform by CIBC. TDS cut to Sell at Legg Mason. CCI raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel. LF raised to Buy at Merrill, target $28. EYET rated new Buy at Merrill, target $45. ABT rated new Underperform at CSFB. MDT, GDT and BSX rated new Outperform at CSFB. WMGI rated new Buy at Bank of America. ESV rated Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $37. GSF rated Strong Buy at RJ, target $35. MXO and STX rated Underperform at RJ. TheStreet.com has a positive column on CUNO, saying it could be a buyout target. Cramer, of TheStreet.com, is recommending the April 30 calls on INTC for aggressive traders. TSC also has a positive column on RCKY. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on WMT, SPP, ROH, IGT, AGI and AYE. GS raised estimates on AMGN and BIIB, reiterating Outperform. Citi Smith Barney says to swap out of CPO and into BG. Citi reiterated 1H on CKFR, target $35. Citi rated PTV Buy, target $27. Citi rated SEE Buy, target $62. Citi says the pricing and lead-time environment in semis appears most positive for FCS, IRF, MXIM and LLTC.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are falling mid-day as the exceptionally strong retail sales reports resulted in rising interest rates, a rising U.S. dollar and falling commodity prices. Krispy Kreme(KKD) may open doughnut shops in Japan under a joint agreement with Global Dining, Dow Jones reported. Google's new free email service is facing scrutiny from a California state senator who wants to block it because the services' advertising violates privacy, Reuters reported. The median sale price of a home in Los Angeles County rose 29% in March to a record $375,000 as concern about rising rates spurred buying, the LA Times reported. A 37-year-old man in Washington state was arrested by federal agents and charged with possessing ricin, a deadly biological agent, the AP reported. Phelps Dodge and other companies that dig copper, silver and other metals are hiring workers and reopening mines as prices rise and demand for copper booms in China, the LA Times reported. Merrill Lynch said first-quarter profit rose 95% as revenue from bond trading and underwriting soared and an improving economy boosted fees from stock sales and mergers. Sales at U.S. retailers rose 1.8% in March, the biggest increase in a year, led by purchases of autos, furniture and building materials. Sales at building materials and garden supply stores rose 10.6%, the largest gain ever recorded. Economists at Morgan Stanley raised their estimate for 1Q GDP growth to 5.0%, Bloomberg reported. Pornographic "spam" must be labeled as such starting May 19, or senders will face fines, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is down today as my falling shorts are not enough to offset 75% net long market exposure. The yield on the 10-yr T-note broke through the top of its intermediate-term downtrend line at 4.22%. The top of the long-term downtrend line is around 5.75%. I still expect the Fed to begin raising rates at the June 29-30 meeting, while the market is expecting the first increase at the September 21 meeting. I also still expect a 1Q GDP number north of 5%, while current market expectations are for 4.6% growth. Finally, I expect the market to remain relatively weak throughout the day. I will likely add exposure into this weakness as I expect a bounce tomorrow on the President's speech, combined with falling energy prices and great earnings reports.
Tuesday Watch
Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
ASO/.45
DJ/.20
INTC/.27
JNJ/.80
LLTC/.25
MER/1.07
Splits
CFC 3-for-2
Economic Data
Advance Retail Sales for March estimated +.7% vs. +.7% in February.
Retail Sales Less Autos for March estimated +.6% vs. +.1% in February.
Business Inventories in February estimated +.5% vs. +.1% prior month.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs says they expect upside earnings surprises to dominate the March earnings season in the gaming sector. GS says demand in Las Vegas appears to be white hot, benefiting MBG and MGG. GS says radio stocks could rally 15% as March "entered like a lamb and exited like a lion."
Late-Night News
Asian stocks are mostly higher on a Nihon Keizai Shimbun survey in Japan showed retail and service companies were optimistic about consumer spending for the first time in eight years. Japanese domestic demand for ordinary steel will rise in the fiscal year started April 1, for the first time in four years, the Japan Metal Daily reported. China is poised to join the multilateral group controlling the export of nuclear materials and technology, the Financial Times reported. MGM Mirage's second-quarter profit may be reduced by 2 cents to 3 cents a share because of a power outage at its Bellagio hotel and casino, Dow Jones reported. The sons of Iraq's Shiite Muslim leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani are meeting with al-Sadr after Sistani called for calm and the restoration of law and order in the country, the AP reported. After talks yesterday, al-Sadr's supporters withdrew from police posts in Najaf, Kufa and Karbala. China's economy will grow 9.75% in the first half of the year, above the 7% government target, Xinhua news agency reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices -.25% to +1.25%.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ indicated -.07%.
BOTTOM LINE: U.S. stocks should open higher in the morning as positive earnings reports continue to outweigh violence in Iraq. The Portfolio is 75% net long and I will look to add market exposure on any unexpected morning weakness.
Company/Estimate
ASO/.45
DJ/.20
INTC/.27
JNJ/.80
LLTC/.25
MER/1.07
Splits
CFC 3-for-2
Economic Data
Advance Retail Sales for March estimated +.7% vs. +.7% in February.
Retail Sales Less Autos for March estimated +.6% vs. +.1% in February.
Business Inventories in February estimated +.5% vs. +.1% prior month.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs says they expect upside earnings surprises to dominate the March earnings season in the gaming sector. GS says demand in Las Vegas appears to be white hot, benefiting MBG and MGG. GS says radio stocks could rally 15% as March "entered like a lamb and exited like a lion."
Late-Night News
Asian stocks are mostly higher on a Nihon Keizai Shimbun survey in Japan showed retail and service companies were optimistic about consumer spending for the first time in eight years. Japanese domestic demand for ordinary steel will rise in the fiscal year started April 1, for the first time in four years, the Japan Metal Daily reported. China is poised to join the multilateral group controlling the export of nuclear materials and technology, the Financial Times reported. MGM Mirage's second-quarter profit may be reduced by 2 cents to 3 cents a share because of a power outage at its Bellagio hotel and casino, Dow Jones reported. The sons of Iraq's Shiite Muslim leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani are meeting with al-Sadr after Sistani called for calm and the restoration of law and order in the country, the AP reported. After talks yesterday, al-Sadr's supporters withdrew from police posts in Najaf, Kufa and Karbala. China's economy will grow 9.75% in the first half of the year, above the 7% government target, Xinhua news agency reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices -.25% to +1.25%.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ indicated -.07%.
BOTTOM LINE: U.S. stocks should open higher in the morning as positive earnings reports continue to outweigh violence in Iraq. The Portfolio is 75% net long and I will look to add market exposure on any unexpected morning weakness.
Monday, April 12, 2004
Monday Close
S&P 500 1,145.20 +.52%
NASDAQ 2,065.48 +.61%
Leading Sectors
Nanotechnology +2.54%
Oil Service +2.43%
Energy +1.83%
Lagging Sectors
Airlines -1.22%
Utilities -1.69%
Homebuilders -1.73%
Other
Crude Oil 37.74 -.26%
Natural Gas 5.99 -.23%
Gold 421.00 +.02%
Base Metals 111.52 unch.
U.S. Dollar 88.93 -.02%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.23% +.94%
VIX 15.28 -6.03%
Put/Call .75 +5.63%
NYSE Arms .81 -2.41%
After-hours Movers
MACE +32.50% on continued mania in small/mid-cap security-related stocks.
NVLS +3.72% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q guidance.
IFIN +5.73% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 04 guidance.
TSCO +5.92% after substantially beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q and 04 guidance.
NVTL +8.50% after boosting 1Q/2Q estimates.
TSO +9.96% after significantly raising 1Q estimates.
EVOL -13.95% after lowering 1Q guidance.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs upgraded the Telecom Services sector to Neutral. GS reiterated Outperform on GCI, SVU and EQT.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher on strong earnings reports and gains in the energy sector. The world's top 14 knowledge economies are all in the U.S., San Francisco being number 1, the Financial Times reported. The interim Iraqi Governing Council is in talks with rebels in Fallujah to end a week of fighting with U.S. troops, and the U.S. is waiting for attacks to subside before entering the negotiations, American commanders said today. CALPERS will withhold votes to reelect Citigroup Chairman Sanford Weill and directors at Coca-Cola and 10 other companies, aiming to improve corporate governance by protesting the makeup of company boards.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio had a good day as my homebuilding shorts continue to fall and technology longs rose. I began to initiate a few shorts in the security-related stocks. I am using tight stop losses and relatively small positions as these stocks are in a mania reminiscent of the internet bubble. I also added a couple of tech long positions on the close, thus leaving the Portfolio's market exposure at 75% net long.
NASDAQ 2,065.48 +.61%
Leading Sectors
Nanotechnology +2.54%
Oil Service +2.43%
Energy +1.83%
Lagging Sectors
Airlines -1.22%
Utilities -1.69%
Homebuilders -1.73%
Other
Crude Oil 37.74 -.26%
Natural Gas 5.99 -.23%
Gold 421.00 +.02%
Base Metals 111.52 unch.
U.S. Dollar 88.93 -.02%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.23% +.94%
VIX 15.28 -6.03%
Put/Call .75 +5.63%
NYSE Arms .81 -2.41%
After-hours Movers
MACE +32.50% on continued mania in small/mid-cap security-related stocks.
NVLS +3.72% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q guidance.
IFIN +5.73% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 04 guidance.
TSCO +5.92% after substantially beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q and 04 guidance.
NVTL +8.50% after boosting 1Q/2Q estimates.
TSO +9.96% after significantly raising 1Q estimates.
EVOL -13.95% after lowering 1Q guidance.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs upgraded the Telecom Services sector to Neutral. GS reiterated Outperform on GCI, SVU and EQT.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher on strong earnings reports and gains in the energy sector. The world's top 14 knowledge economies are all in the U.S., San Francisco being number 1, the Financial Times reported. The interim Iraqi Governing Council is in talks with rebels in Fallujah to end a week of fighting with U.S. troops, and the U.S. is waiting for attacks to subside before entering the negotiations, American commanders said today. CALPERS will withhold votes to reelect Citigroup Chairman Sanford Weill and directors at Coca-Cola and 10 other companies, aiming to improve corporate governance by protesting the makeup of company boards.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio had a good day as my homebuilding shorts continue to fall and technology longs rose. I began to initiate a few shorts in the security-related stocks. I am using tight stop losses and relatively small positions as these stocks are in a mania reminiscent of the internet bubble. I also added a couple of tech long positions on the close, thus leaving the Portfolio's market exposure at 75% net long.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,143.67 +.39%
NASDAQ 2,062.61 +.48%
Leading Sectors
Nanotechnology +2.99%
Oil Service +1.91%
Energy +1.85%
Lagging Sectors
Airlines -.55%
Utilities -1.37%
Homebuilders -1.86%
Other
Crude Oil 37.82 +1.83%
Natural Gas 6.02 +1.25%
Gold 420.20 -.12%
Base Metals 111.52 unch.
U.S. Dollar 88.98 +.01%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.24% +1.13%
VIX 15.29 -5.97%
Put/Call .56 -21.13%
NYSE Arms .83 unch.
Market Movers
CMCSA +3.8% after Bank of America upgraded to Buy.
PLB -9.95% after lowering 2Q sales and profit forecasts and Wachovia downgrade to Market Perform.
OSTK +12.53% on short-covering.
DECK +13.09% on short-covering.
VMSI +7.13% on Wachovia upgrade to Buy.
NFI -23.59% on negative WSJ article.
CDCY -21.53% on lowering 1Q forecast and multiple downgrades.
Small/Mid-cap security-related stocks up strongly across the board on terrorism/war fears.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on GE, ACS, MO, INTC and SNDK. GS thinks SYMC and MERQ, in the software sector, have the best chance to show revenue upside in their upcoming quarterly reports. GS raised 04 copper forecast by $.05 to $1.23/lb. GS rated NFP and BAC Outperform. Citi Smith Barney said to swap out of DAL and into AMR. Citi says CMA, MTB and TCB are banks best positioned for a rise in rates, CF, HBAN, NCF and NFB are worst positioned. Citi says proprietary 1Q construction equipment dealer survey very positive as demand is outstripping supply, providing strong backlog heading into spring/summer. Citi reiterated Buy on GE, $36 target. Citi raised estimates for 1Q and 04 on IR as they expect it to beat pre-announced upside. JP Morgan cut ABT to Underweight. CFSB rated G Underperform. CMCSA raised to Buy at Bank of America. FLEX raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James, CVG and INTC rated Outperform. DOX rated Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are higher mid-day on strong corporate earnings reports and no acts of terrorism over the religious holiday weekend. Medicare plans to publish comparative price listings for prescription drugs on its Web site later this month, giving consumers more insight into what pharmacies charge, the NY Times reported. Washington, D.C. tourism is rebounding, after more than 2 years of declines amid a slower economy and terrorism fears following the Sept. 11 attacks, the Washington Post reported. Silicon Valley technology executives who traditionally back Democratic political candidates are wavering over supporting John Kerry because they oppose his positions on job outsourcing, the NY Times reported. Iraqi insurgents freed 12 hostages today and more are expected to be freed later in the day, Reuters reported. Japan's government will likely boost its assessment of the nation's economy in its April outlook report to be released Friday, Kyodo News reported. New York gasoline futures rose to an all-time high after the IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand on strong economic growth in the U.S. and Asia. U.S. Treasury notes fell after San Francisco Fed President Parry said the Fed's key interest rate has the potential to rise to about 3.5% if inflation averages 1-2%.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is having a good day as my shorts are down and a few of my tech longs are up substantially. I have not traded yet and the Portfolio is still 75% net long. I am a little disappointed with the breadth of today's rally. I think comments made by the Fed's Parry and energy prices are weighing on the market. I will make a determination on whether or not to change market exposure this afternoon.
NASDAQ 2,062.61 +.48%
Leading Sectors
Nanotechnology +2.99%
Oil Service +1.91%
Energy +1.85%
Lagging Sectors
Airlines -.55%
Utilities -1.37%
Homebuilders -1.86%
Other
Crude Oil 37.82 +1.83%
Natural Gas 6.02 +1.25%
Gold 420.20 -.12%
Base Metals 111.52 unch.
U.S. Dollar 88.98 +.01%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.24% +1.13%
VIX 15.29 -5.97%
Put/Call .56 -21.13%
NYSE Arms .83 unch.
Market Movers
CMCSA +3.8% after Bank of America upgraded to Buy.
PLB -9.95% after lowering 2Q sales and profit forecasts and Wachovia downgrade to Market Perform.
OSTK +12.53% on short-covering.
DECK +13.09% on short-covering.
VMSI +7.13% on Wachovia upgrade to Buy.
NFI -23.59% on negative WSJ article.
CDCY -21.53% on lowering 1Q forecast and multiple downgrades.
Small/Mid-cap security-related stocks up strongly across the board on terrorism/war fears.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on GE, ACS, MO, INTC and SNDK. GS thinks SYMC and MERQ, in the software sector, have the best chance to show revenue upside in their upcoming quarterly reports. GS raised 04 copper forecast by $.05 to $1.23/lb. GS rated NFP and BAC Outperform. Citi Smith Barney said to swap out of DAL and into AMR. Citi says CMA, MTB and TCB are banks best positioned for a rise in rates, CF, HBAN, NCF and NFB are worst positioned. Citi says proprietary 1Q construction equipment dealer survey very positive as demand is outstripping supply, providing strong backlog heading into spring/summer. Citi reiterated Buy on GE, $36 target. Citi raised estimates for 1Q and 04 on IR as they expect it to beat pre-announced upside. JP Morgan cut ABT to Underweight. CFSB rated G Underperform. CMCSA raised to Buy at Bank of America. FLEX raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James, CVG and INTC rated Outperform. DOX rated Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are higher mid-day on strong corporate earnings reports and no acts of terrorism over the religious holiday weekend. Medicare plans to publish comparative price listings for prescription drugs on its Web site later this month, giving consumers more insight into what pharmacies charge, the NY Times reported. Washington, D.C. tourism is rebounding, after more than 2 years of declines amid a slower economy and terrorism fears following the Sept. 11 attacks, the Washington Post reported. Silicon Valley technology executives who traditionally back Democratic political candidates are wavering over supporting John Kerry because they oppose his positions on job outsourcing, the NY Times reported. Iraqi insurgents freed 12 hostages today and more are expected to be freed later in the day, Reuters reported. Japan's government will likely boost its assessment of the nation's economy in its April outlook report to be released Friday, Kyodo News reported. New York gasoline futures rose to an all-time high after the IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand on strong economic growth in the U.S. and Asia. U.S. Treasury notes fell after San Francisco Fed President Parry said the Fed's key interest rate has the potential to rise to about 3.5% if inflation averages 1-2%.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is having a good day as my shorts are down and a few of my tech longs are up substantially. I have not traded yet and the Portfolio is still 75% net long. I am a little disappointed with the breadth of today's rally. I think comments made by the Fed's Parry and energy prices are weighing on the market. I will make a determination on whether or not to change market exposure this afternoon.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)