Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
VOXX/.09
CSL/1.08
C/.97
CMA/.93
CY/.23
FCS/.23
ETN/1.02
DJ/.38
IBM/1.12
LEXR/-.19
LSS/.99
MAR/.61
NFLX/.13
PEP/.61
RMBS/.06
PMCS/.07
RDC/-.03
LUV/.16
SYK/.33
TRB/.61
UNH/.92
WB/.96
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Producer Price Index for June estimated +.2% versus +.8% in May.
PPI Ex Food & Energy for June estimated +.2% versus +.3% in May.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week estimated at 345K versus 310K prior week.
Continuing Claims estimated at 2883K versus 2872K prior.
Business Inventories for May estimated +.5% versus +.5% in April.
Empire Manufacturing for July estimated at 27.80 versus 30.17 in June.
Industrial Production for June estimated +.1% versus +1.1% in May.
Capacity Utilization for June estimated at 77.7% versus 77.8% in May.
Philly Fed for July estimated at 25.0 versus 28.9 in June.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on STN, IBM and UPS.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly lower after a Citigroup downgrade of several semiconductor makers in the region. Former U.S. president Bill Clinton backed U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair's decision to go to war with Iraq, the Financial Times said, citing an interview with Clinton. Harrah's Entertainment has agreed to buy Caesars Entertainment for $5.28 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported on its Web site. Nokia may report falling sales today, while Sony Ericsson Mobile will probably say revenue jumped by a fifth, underscoring the Finnish company's loss of market share this year, Bloomberg said. The U.S. free-trade agreement with Australia, approved by the U.S. House of Representatives yesterday, should spark support by Australia's parliament, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.50 to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.04%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.25%.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on a rebound in technology shares, however a lot will depend on the numerous economic data releases. Higher-than-expected inflation readings and reports showing more evidence of slowing economic growth could send shares lower on the open. The Portfolio is market neutral heading into tomorrow.
Thursday, July 15, 2004
Wednesday, July 14, 2004
Wednesday Close
S&P 500 1,111.47 -.33%
NASDAQ 1,914.88 -.87%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +2.98%
Oil Service +2.24%
Restaurants +1.83%
Lagging Sectors
Disk Drives -1.84%
Airlines -3.29%
Semis -4.48%
Other
Crude Oil 41.00 -.36%
Natural Gas 6.00 +.47%
Gold 405.20 -.10%
Base Metals 111.95 +.01%
U.S. Dollar 87.86 +.54%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.48% +.22%
VIX 13.76 -4.84%
Put/Call .93 +19.23%
NYSE Arms 1.39 +59.77%
After-hours Movers
SNDK +19.32% after beating 2Q estimates substantially and raising 3Q forecast.
AAPL +6.83% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q guidance.
PLNR +8.98% after beating 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q guidance.
IFIN +5.91% after exceeding 2Q forecast.
QLGC +3.88% after meeting lowered 1Q forecast and lowering 2Q guidance.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on CNET and RKY. Goldman reiterated Outperform on HD and STN.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished modestly lower today as oil prices rose and technology shares remained under pressure after Intel's report. After the close, the Department of Housing and Urban Development sent letters to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac seeking information on their international businesses, Dow Jones reported. Apple Computer said third-quarter profit more than tripled on a three-fold surge in iPod shipments. SanDisk said second-quarter profit climbed 71%, more than forecast, on record sales of equipment that stores digital photos and music, Bloomberg reported. Sudan's government hasn't met its commitments to end the humanitarian crisis in Darfur, where militias are forcing people to leave camps that provide food and shelter, a UN official said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished unchanged today and I did not trade in the afternoon, leaving market exposure at market neutral. It looks as though more technology companies are being rewarded for good reports in after-hours, which may lead to a better bounce tomorrow. The market's recent action is frustrating for bulls and bears and fits my expectation for a continuation of the trading range. However, the falling VIX and rising oil prices are still of concern.
NASDAQ 1,914.88 -.87%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +2.98%
Oil Service +2.24%
Restaurants +1.83%
Lagging Sectors
Disk Drives -1.84%
Airlines -3.29%
Semis -4.48%
Other
Crude Oil 41.00 -.36%
Natural Gas 6.00 +.47%
Gold 405.20 -.10%
Base Metals 111.95 +.01%
U.S. Dollar 87.86 +.54%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.48% +.22%
VIX 13.76 -4.84%
Put/Call .93 +19.23%
NYSE Arms 1.39 +59.77%
After-hours Movers
SNDK +19.32% after beating 2Q estimates substantially and raising 3Q forecast.
AAPL +6.83% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q guidance.
PLNR +8.98% after beating 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q guidance.
IFIN +5.91% after exceeding 2Q forecast.
QLGC +3.88% after meeting lowered 1Q forecast and lowering 2Q guidance.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on CNET and RKY. Goldman reiterated Outperform on HD and STN.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished modestly lower today as oil prices rose and technology shares remained under pressure after Intel's report. After the close, the Department of Housing and Urban Development sent letters to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac seeking information on their international businesses, Dow Jones reported. Apple Computer said third-quarter profit more than tripled on a three-fold surge in iPod shipments. SanDisk said second-quarter profit climbed 71%, more than forecast, on record sales of equipment that stores digital photos and music, Bloomberg reported. Sudan's government hasn't met its commitments to end the humanitarian crisis in Darfur, where militias are forcing people to leave camps that provide food and shelter, a UN official said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished unchanged today and I did not trade in the afternoon, leaving market exposure at market neutral. It looks as though more technology companies are being rewarded for good reports in after-hours, which may lead to a better bounce tomorrow. The market's recent action is frustrating for bulls and bears and fits my expectation for a continuation of the trading range. However, the falling VIX and rising oil prices are still of concern.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,114.55 -.05%
NASDAQ 1,922.80 -.46%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +3.12%
Restaurants +2.33%
Networking +2.03%
Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -1.19%
Airlines -1.78%
Semis -4.14%
Other
Crude Oil 40.40 +2.17%
Natural Gas 5.94 +.68%
Gold 405.60 +.82%
Base Metals 111.95 +.01%
U.S. Dollar 87.54 -.32%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.47% +.13%
VIX 13.63 -5.74%
Put/Call .94 +20.51%
NYSE Arms 1.23 +41.38%
Market Movers
GENZ +12.1% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 04 forecast.
INTC -8.7% after meeting 2Q estimates, lowering 04 gross margin estimate and reiterating 3Q forecast.
JNPR +13.4% after beating 2Q forecast substantially and announcing $250m share buy-back.
CZR +16.2% after the Wall Street Journal reported that HET may acquire it.
MOGN +13.0% after beating 2Q forecast and raising guidance on agreement to help market AAII's painkiller, Kadian.
KOMG +11.6% on bargain-hunting after lowering 2Q estimates.
HDI +6.1% after beating 2Q estimates.
IMN -21.4% after lowering 2Q forecast.
NTY -9.3% after RBC Capital downgrade to Sector Perform.
LIN -6.3% after lowering 2Q and 04 forecast.
Economic Data
Advance Retail Sales for June -1.1% versus estimates of -.8% and an upwardly revised +1.4% in May.
Retail Sales Less Autos for June -.2% versus estimates of +.2% and an upwardly revised +.9% in May.
Import Price Index for June came in -.2% versus estimates of +.1% and a downwardly revised +1.4% in May.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on JNPR, GCI, STZ, HCA, PFE, ROH, NFX, MDT and INTC. Goldman reiterated Underperform on BA and SGP. Citi SmithBarney reiterated Buy on MER, target $73. Citi reiterated Buy on INTC, target $33. Citi reiterated Buy on CELG, target $75. Citi reiterated Buy on JNPR, target $32.50. Citi reiterated Buy on SPRT, target $11. Citi reiterated Buy on UNH, target $86. Citi reiterated Sell on BMY, target $25. Citi reiterated Buy on YUM, target $40. TXN raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank, target $26. DISH rated Outperform at CSFB, target $37. ZLC raised to Buy at Merrill, target $24.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are modestly lower today as rising oil prices, weaker retail sales and disappointment over Intel's report weigh on shares. China's Premier Wen Jiabao said the government will keep up lending curbs aimed at slowing the world's seventh-largest economy, adding more needs to be done to rein in investment and solve energy shortages, Bloomberg reported. Denver billionaire Philip Anschutz's development company will announce today it's ready to start construction on a $1 billion commercial development near Los Angeles's Staples Center, the LA Times said. Boston and NY City are receiving expedited shipments of antidotes designed to counter chemical attacks ahead of the Democrat and Republican national conventions, the Boston Globe reported. Northwest Airlines passengers are facing flight delays and cancellations after a power outage near Minneapolis caused the fourth-largest U.S. airline's internal computers to fail, CNBC said. Daniel Benton's Andor Capital told investors in a letter that co-portfolio manager Chris James is leaving the hedge fund firm to start his own company, Bloomberg reported. A divided U.S. SEC proposed that hedge fund managers be required to register with the agency, the first step in Chairman Donaldson's campaign to open the $850 billion industry to greater scrutiny, Bloomberg said. More than three-quarters of U.S. consumers age 50 and older support legislation that would allow them to buy cheaper medicines from Canada and other countries, according to a poll financed by the consumer group AARP, Bloomberg said. U.S. retail sales fell in June by the most since 2003, underscoring forecasts that consumer spending slowed in the second quarter from the previous three months, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged today as my declining longs are offsetting my falling shorts. I took profits in a few shorts into this morning's weakness and the Portfolio is now market neutral. While investors are becoming less complacent today, readings are not at levels associated with bottoms. Moreover, rising oil prices will likely prevent any substantial rally from materializing this afternoon.
NASDAQ 1,922.80 -.46%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +3.12%
Restaurants +2.33%
Networking +2.03%
Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -1.19%
Airlines -1.78%
Semis -4.14%
Other
Crude Oil 40.40 +2.17%
Natural Gas 5.94 +.68%
Gold 405.60 +.82%
Base Metals 111.95 +.01%
U.S. Dollar 87.54 -.32%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.47% +.13%
VIX 13.63 -5.74%
Put/Call .94 +20.51%
NYSE Arms 1.23 +41.38%
Market Movers
GENZ +12.1% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 04 forecast.
INTC -8.7% after meeting 2Q estimates, lowering 04 gross margin estimate and reiterating 3Q forecast.
JNPR +13.4% after beating 2Q forecast substantially and announcing $250m share buy-back.
CZR +16.2% after the Wall Street Journal reported that HET may acquire it.
MOGN +13.0% after beating 2Q forecast and raising guidance on agreement to help market AAII's painkiller, Kadian.
KOMG +11.6% on bargain-hunting after lowering 2Q estimates.
HDI +6.1% after beating 2Q estimates.
IMN -21.4% after lowering 2Q forecast.
NTY -9.3% after RBC Capital downgrade to Sector Perform.
LIN -6.3% after lowering 2Q and 04 forecast.
Economic Data
Advance Retail Sales for June -1.1% versus estimates of -.8% and an upwardly revised +1.4% in May.
Retail Sales Less Autos for June -.2% versus estimates of +.2% and an upwardly revised +.9% in May.
Import Price Index for June came in -.2% versus estimates of +.1% and a downwardly revised +1.4% in May.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on JNPR, GCI, STZ, HCA, PFE, ROH, NFX, MDT and INTC. Goldman reiterated Underperform on BA and SGP. Citi SmithBarney reiterated Buy on MER, target $73. Citi reiterated Buy on INTC, target $33. Citi reiterated Buy on CELG, target $75. Citi reiterated Buy on JNPR, target $32.50. Citi reiterated Buy on SPRT, target $11. Citi reiterated Buy on UNH, target $86. Citi reiterated Sell on BMY, target $25. Citi reiterated Buy on YUM, target $40. TXN raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank, target $26. DISH rated Outperform at CSFB, target $37. ZLC raised to Buy at Merrill, target $24.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are modestly lower today as rising oil prices, weaker retail sales and disappointment over Intel's report weigh on shares. China's Premier Wen Jiabao said the government will keep up lending curbs aimed at slowing the world's seventh-largest economy, adding more needs to be done to rein in investment and solve energy shortages, Bloomberg reported. Denver billionaire Philip Anschutz's development company will announce today it's ready to start construction on a $1 billion commercial development near Los Angeles's Staples Center, the LA Times said. Boston and NY City are receiving expedited shipments of antidotes designed to counter chemical attacks ahead of the Democrat and Republican national conventions, the Boston Globe reported. Northwest Airlines passengers are facing flight delays and cancellations after a power outage near Minneapolis caused the fourth-largest U.S. airline's internal computers to fail, CNBC said. Daniel Benton's Andor Capital told investors in a letter that co-portfolio manager Chris James is leaving the hedge fund firm to start his own company, Bloomberg reported. A divided U.S. SEC proposed that hedge fund managers be required to register with the agency, the first step in Chairman Donaldson's campaign to open the $850 billion industry to greater scrutiny, Bloomberg said. More than three-quarters of U.S. consumers age 50 and older support legislation that would allow them to buy cheaper medicines from Canada and other countries, according to a poll financed by the consumer group AARP, Bloomberg said. U.S. retail sales fell in June by the most since 2003, underscoring forecasts that consumer spending slowed in the second quarter from the previous three months, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged today as my declining longs are offsetting my falling shorts. I took profits in a few shorts into this morning's weakness and the Portfolio is now market neutral. While investors are becoming less complacent today, readings are not at levels associated with bottoms. Moreover, rising oil prices will likely prevent any substantial rally from materializing this afternoon.
Wednesday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AMD/.09
AAPL/.15
BAC/1.74
GENZ/.40
HDI/.75
MTG/1.26
PGR/1.76
QLGC/.36
STN/.49
SNDK/.30
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Advance Retail Sales for June estimated -.8% versus +1.2% in May.
Retail Sales Less Autos for June estimated +.2% versus +.7% in May.
Import Price Index for June estimated +.1% versus +1.6% in May.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Attractive view of Oil Service sector and sees a longer, slower growth, more international E&P spending cycle w/potential to last into 2006, favorites are SII, BHI, SLB and NOI, but would only buy on pullback. Goldman reiterated Outperform on EQT and ROH.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly lower as semiconductor shares fall in response to Intel's report after the U.S. close. Sony plans to offer a service allowing customers to download videos and television programs, the Financial Times said. Intel will need about 90 days to work through extra inventories that are reducing the company's profit margins, CFO Andy Bryant said. The terror threat against the U.S. is at the highest level since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks because of the upcoming presidential election, Reuters reported, citing CIA acting director John McLaughlin. Micron Technology said the annual pickup in demand before students in the U.S. go back to school in September will probably occur a month later than expected, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.0 to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.26%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.63%.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open lower in the morning on weakness in Asia, falling technology shares, weaker retail sales, rising energy prices and terrorism fears. However, the lows for the day will likely occur in the morning. The Portfolio is 25% net short heading into tomorrow.
Company/Estimate
AMD/.09
AAPL/.15
BAC/1.74
GENZ/.40
HDI/.75
MTG/1.26
PGR/1.76
QLGC/.36
STN/.49
SNDK/.30
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Advance Retail Sales for June estimated -.8% versus +1.2% in May.
Retail Sales Less Autos for June estimated +.2% versus +.7% in May.
Import Price Index for June estimated +.1% versus +1.6% in May.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Attractive view of Oil Service sector and sees a longer, slower growth, more international E&P spending cycle w/potential to last into 2006, favorites are SII, BHI, SLB and NOI, but would only buy on pullback. Goldman reiterated Outperform on EQT and ROH.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly lower as semiconductor shares fall in response to Intel's report after the U.S. close. Sony plans to offer a service allowing customers to download videos and television programs, the Financial Times said. Intel will need about 90 days to work through extra inventories that are reducing the company's profit margins, CFO Andy Bryant said. The terror threat against the U.S. is at the highest level since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks because of the upcoming presidential election, Reuters reported, citing CIA acting director John McLaughlin. Micron Technology said the annual pickup in demand before students in the U.S. go back to school in September will probably occur a month later than expected, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.0 to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.26%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.63%.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open lower in the morning on weakness in Asia, falling technology shares, weaker retail sales, rising energy prices and terrorism fears. However, the lows for the day will likely occur in the morning. The Portfolio is 25% net short heading into tomorrow.
Tuesday, July 13, 2004
Tuesday Close
S&P 500 1,115.14 +.07%
NASDAQ 1,931.66 -.27%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.33%
HMO's +1.96%
Iron/Steel +1.59%
Lagging Sectors
Tobacco -1.01%
Software -1.77%
Airlines -4.02%
Other
Crude Oil 39.66 +.30%
Natural Gas 5.92 +.23%
Gold 402.70 +.10%
Base Metals 111.94 -.48%
U.S. Dollar 87.86 +.54%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.47% +.57%
VIX 14.46 -3.34%
Put/Call .78 -34.45%
NYSE Arms .87 -35.56%
After-hours Movers
INTC -4.21% after meeting 2Q estimates, lowering 04 gross margin estimtate and reiterating 3Q forecast.
JNPR +10.73% after beating 2Q forecast substantially and announcing $250m share buy-back.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MER and BAC. Goldman downgraded AG to Underperform.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed today as investors feared making big bets ahead of Intel and Juniper's earnings reports. After the close, an Iraqi group calling itself al-Tawhid wa al-Jihad said it executed one of two Bulgarian truck drivers it took hostage last week, Bloomberg reported. Democrats will prevent a proposed constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage from coming to a vote in the U.S. Senate, Minority Leader Tom Daschle said. The dollar had the biggest gain against the euro in two weeks and advanced against the yen after the U.S. trade deficit narrowed for the first time in six months as exports surged to a record, Bloomberg reported. Sales at Juniper Networks rose 86% to $306.9 million in the second-quarter, the fastest pace in three years, Bloomberg said. Intel said second-quarter earnings almost doubled to the highest in four years, however profit margins may be narrower-than-expected this quarter, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today and I did not trade in the afternoon, leaving market exposure at 25% net short. The Nasdaq after-hours futures are down 12.0 as investors are paying more attention to Intel's slightly disappointing quarter than to Juniper's exceptional report. Energy prices rose in the afternoon and investor complacency remains too high.
NASDAQ 1,931.66 -.27%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.33%
HMO's +1.96%
Iron/Steel +1.59%
Lagging Sectors
Tobacco -1.01%
Software -1.77%
Airlines -4.02%
Other
Crude Oil 39.66 +.30%
Natural Gas 5.92 +.23%
Gold 402.70 +.10%
Base Metals 111.94 -.48%
U.S. Dollar 87.86 +.54%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.47% +.57%
VIX 14.46 -3.34%
Put/Call .78 -34.45%
NYSE Arms .87 -35.56%
After-hours Movers
INTC -4.21% after meeting 2Q estimates, lowering 04 gross margin estimtate and reiterating 3Q forecast.
JNPR +10.73% after beating 2Q forecast substantially and announcing $250m share buy-back.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MER and BAC. Goldman downgraded AG to Underperform.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed today as investors feared making big bets ahead of Intel and Juniper's earnings reports. After the close, an Iraqi group calling itself al-Tawhid wa al-Jihad said it executed one of two Bulgarian truck drivers it took hostage last week, Bloomberg reported. Democrats will prevent a proposed constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage from coming to a vote in the U.S. Senate, Minority Leader Tom Daschle said. The dollar had the biggest gain against the euro in two weeks and advanced against the yen after the U.S. trade deficit narrowed for the first time in six months as exports surged to a record, Bloomberg reported. Sales at Juniper Networks rose 86% to $306.9 million in the second-quarter, the fastest pace in three years, Bloomberg said. Intel said second-quarter earnings almost doubled to the highest in four years, however profit margins may be narrower-than-expected this quarter, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today and I did not trade in the afternoon, leaving market exposure at 25% net short. The Nasdaq after-hours futures are down 12.0 as investors are paying more attention to Intel's slightly disappointing quarter than to Juniper's exceptional report. Energy prices rose in the afternoon and investor complacency remains too high.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,113.84 -.05%
NASDAQ 1,933.84 -.16%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.64%
HMO's +1.86%
Iron/Steel +.98%
Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -1.12%
Software -1.48%
Airlines -2.62%
Other
Crude Oil 39.45 -.55%
Natural Gas 5.90 +.82%
Gold 402.00 -1.57%
Base Metals 111.94 -.48%
U.S. Dollar 88.01 +.71%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.49% +1.01%
VIX 14.78 -1.20%
Put/Call .72 -39.50%
NYSE Arms .92 -31.85%
Market Movers
RHAT -21.2% after saying it will restate three years of sales and profit to correct accounting for subscription revenue.
ADTN -12.5% after meeting 2Q estimates.
FIC -21.5% after lowering 3Q and 4Q guidance substantially and multiple downgrades.
SCCS -26.3% after lowering 2Q and 04 forecast and multiple downgrades.
OPTN +21.9% after raising 2Q and 04 guidance.
FAST +8.7% after exceeding 2Q estimates.
MDC +6.8% after beating 2Q estimates substantially.
STLY +7.2% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q and 04 guidance.
CYT +6.2% after CSFB upgrade to Outperform from Neutral.
CNJ +9.7% after saying Moulin Intl. revised its bid to buy it to $25/share.
NAP -10.8% after saying Bank of America would acquire it for $1.4B.
AGN -7.4% after saying its acne drug Tazoral failed to win the recommendation of a FDA panel as a treatment for psoriasis.
STT -8.6% after meeting 2Q estimates, but giving cautious 2nd half guidance.
TZOO -11.6% on profit-taking after strong 2Q report.
Economic Data
Trade Balance for May came in at -$46.0B versus an estimate of -$48.3B and -$48.1B in April.
Recommendations
ARM raised to Buy at UBS, target $25. IBM raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley, target $100. HSIC rated Overweight at Morgan Stanley, target $74. PHCC rated Underweight at Morgan Stanley. JKHY rated Outperform at CSFB, target $24. CYT raised to Outperform at CSFB, target $54. YHOO rated Buy at Bank of America, target $39. AMSG rated Buy at Bank of America, target $30. SMBI rated Buy at Bank of America, target $22. SLNK cut to Underweight at JP Morgan. AAP rated new Buy at Oppenheimer. Goldman Sachs reiterated Attractive view of Paper stocks, favorites are IP, SPP and DTC. Goldman reiterated Underweight on LSI, TLAB, DO and S. Goldman reiterated Overweight on ZION, CSCO, ACN, MDT, MER, PFGC, DELL, CTSH and TPX. Citi SmithBarney reiterated Buy on GCI, target $95. Citi reiterated Buy on MTB, target $102.00.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are modestly lower mid-day on continuing earnings worries and rising interest rates. Google plans to introduce a function that allows users to comb the Web for audio and video clips, the NY Post reported. Citigroup will transfer more than 1,000 employees to New Jersey from Lower Manhattan, raising concerns about the recovery of downtown New York after the Sept. 11 attacks, the NY Times reported. Baghdad police arrested 527 suspects in a crackdown on criminals in the Iraqi capital, Sky News reported. Median LA County home prices rose 32% to $414,000 in June, the biggest increase in at least 15 years, the LA Times reported. Mike Ditka, the former Chicago Bears head coach, is considering joining the race to represent Illinois as a Republican in the U.S. Senate, the Chicago Sun-Times reported. Seventeen suspected members of the Ansar al-Islam terrorist group were captured in the Iraqi city of Kirkuk in raids over the last three days, Agence France-Presse said. Delta Air said it plans a total $1.65 billion in charges for the second quarter because of income-tax deferrals and a settlement for pilot pensions, Bloomberg reported. Oil demand will rise by 2.2% next year, almost double the average annual rate in the 90's, because of rising consumption from strong economic growth in China and the U.S., the IEA said. A Manhattan apartment's average price for the first time topped $1 million, the highest of any U.S. city, as New York's economic growth outpaced the nation's, Bloomberg reported. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in May for the first time in six months as exports surged to a record, led by aircraft, engines and other capital goods, Bloomberg reported. President Bush leads Senator Kerry by 15 percentage points in North Carolina, the home state of Kerry's ticket mate, John Edwards, according to a poll by USA Today and CNN. Duke Energy, the largest U.S. utility owner, agreed to pay $207.5 million to settle claims that the company overcharged customers for power during the western energy crisis of 2000 and 2001, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower today as my medical and technology distribution shorts are rising more than my oil service and software shorts are falling. I exited a couple of shorts and longs this morning as I reposition the Portfolio, leaving market exposure at 25% net short. I expect U.S. stocks to fall modestly into the afternoon on rising interest rates and fears over technology reports after the close. Moreover, the Put/Call and Arms readings are plunging which also points to a weaker close.
NASDAQ 1,933.84 -.16%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.64%
HMO's +1.86%
Iron/Steel +.98%
Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -1.12%
Software -1.48%
Airlines -2.62%
Other
Crude Oil 39.45 -.55%
Natural Gas 5.90 +.82%
Gold 402.00 -1.57%
Base Metals 111.94 -.48%
U.S. Dollar 88.01 +.71%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.49% +1.01%
VIX 14.78 -1.20%
Put/Call .72 -39.50%
NYSE Arms .92 -31.85%
Market Movers
RHAT -21.2% after saying it will restate three years of sales and profit to correct accounting for subscription revenue.
ADTN -12.5% after meeting 2Q estimates.
FIC -21.5% after lowering 3Q and 4Q guidance substantially and multiple downgrades.
SCCS -26.3% after lowering 2Q and 04 forecast and multiple downgrades.
OPTN +21.9% after raising 2Q and 04 guidance.
FAST +8.7% after exceeding 2Q estimates.
MDC +6.8% after beating 2Q estimates substantially.
STLY +7.2% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q and 04 guidance.
CYT +6.2% after CSFB upgrade to Outperform from Neutral.
CNJ +9.7% after saying Moulin Intl. revised its bid to buy it to $25/share.
NAP -10.8% after saying Bank of America would acquire it for $1.4B.
AGN -7.4% after saying its acne drug Tazoral failed to win the recommendation of a FDA panel as a treatment for psoriasis.
STT -8.6% after meeting 2Q estimates, but giving cautious 2nd half guidance.
TZOO -11.6% on profit-taking after strong 2Q report.
Economic Data
Trade Balance for May came in at -$46.0B versus an estimate of -$48.3B and -$48.1B in April.
Recommendations
ARM raised to Buy at UBS, target $25. IBM raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley, target $100. HSIC rated Overweight at Morgan Stanley, target $74. PHCC rated Underweight at Morgan Stanley. JKHY rated Outperform at CSFB, target $24. CYT raised to Outperform at CSFB, target $54. YHOO rated Buy at Bank of America, target $39. AMSG rated Buy at Bank of America, target $30. SMBI rated Buy at Bank of America, target $22. SLNK cut to Underweight at JP Morgan. AAP rated new Buy at Oppenheimer. Goldman Sachs reiterated Attractive view of Paper stocks, favorites are IP, SPP and DTC. Goldman reiterated Underweight on LSI, TLAB, DO and S. Goldman reiterated Overweight on ZION, CSCO, ACN, MDT, MER, PFGC, DELL, CTSH and TPX. Citi SmithBarney reiterated Buy on GCI, target $95. Citi reiterated Buy on MTB, target $102.00.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are modestly lower mid-day on continuing earnings worries and rising interest rates. Google plans to introduce a function that allows users to comb the Web for audio and video clips, the NY Post reported. Citigroup will transfer more than 1,000 employees to New Jersey from Lower Manhattan, raising concerns about the recovery of downtown New York after the Sept. 11 attacks, the NY Times reported. Baghdad police arrested 527 suspects in a crackdown on criminals in the Iraqi capital, Sky News reported. Median LA County home prices rose 32% to $414,000 in June, the biggest increase in at least 15 years, the LA Times reported. Mike Ditka, the former Chicago Bears head coach, is considering joining the race to represent Illinois as a Republican in the U.S. Senate, the Chicago Sun-Times reported. Seventeen suspected members of the Ansar al-Islam terrorist group were captured in the Iraqi city of Kirkuk in raids over the last three days, Agence France-Presse said. Delta Air said it plans a total $1.65 billion in charges for the second quarter because of income-tax deferrals and a settlement for pilot pensions, Bloomberg reported. Oil demand will rise by 2.2% next year, almost double the average annual rate in the 90's, because of rising consumption from strong economic growth in China and the U.S., the IEA said. A Manhattan apartment's average price for the first time topped $1 million, the highest of any U.S. city, as New York's economic growth outpaced the nation's, Bloomberg reported. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in May for the first time in six months as exports surged to a record, led by aircraft, engines and other capital goods, Bloomberg reported. President Bush leads Senator Kerry by 15 percentage points in North Carolina, the home state of Kerry's ticket mate, John Edwards, according to a poll by USA Today and CNN. Duke Energy, the largest U.S. utility owner, agreed to pay $207.5 million to settle claims that the company overcharged customers for power during the western energy crisis of 2000 and 2001, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower today as my medical and technology distribution shorts are rising more than my oil service and software shorts are falling. I exited a couple of shorts and longs this morning as I reposition the Portfolio, leaving market exposure at 25% net short. I expect U.S. stocks to fall modestly into the afternoon on rising interest rates and fears over technology reports after the close. Moreover, the Put/Call and Arms readings are plunging which also points to a weaker close.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)