Wednesday, July 14, 2004

Wednesday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AMD/.09
AAPL/.15
BAC/1.74
GENZ/.40
HDI/.75
MTG/1.26
PGR/1.76
QLGC/.36
STN/.49
SNDK/.30

Splits
None of note.

Economic Data
Advance Retail Sales for June estimated -.8% versus +1.2% in May.
Retail Sales Less Autos for June estimated +.2% versus +.7% in May.
Import Price Index for June estimated +.1% versus +1.6% in May.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Attractive view of Oil Service sector and sees a longer, slower growth, more international E&P spending cycle w/potential to last into 2006, favorites are SII, BHI, SLB and NOI, but would only buy on pullback. Goldman reiterated Outperform on EQT and ROH.

Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly lower as semiconductor shares fall in response to Intel's report after the U.S. close. Sony plans to offer a service allowing customers to download videos and television programs, the Financial Times said. Intel will need about 90 days to work through extra inventories that are reducing the company's profit margins, CFO Andy Bryant said. The terror threat against the U.S. is at the highest level since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks because of the upcoming presidential election, Reuters reported, citing CIA acting director John McLaughlin. Micron Technology said the annual pickup in demand before students in the U.S. go back to school in September will probably occur a month later than expected, Bloomberg reported.

Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.0 to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.26%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.63%.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open lower in the morning on weakness in Asia, falling technology shares, weaker retail sales, rising energy prices and terrorism fears. However, the lows for the day will likely occur in the morning. The Portfolio is 25% net short heading into tomorrow.

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