Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Tuesday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
ADTN/.26
ASO/.46
FAST/.41
GCI/1.30
INTC/.27
JEF/.44
JNJ/.79
JNPR/.04
MER/1.10
PCP/.74
RJF/.48
STT/.68
TZOO/.06
YUM/.52

Splits
SLXP 3-for-2

Economic Data
Trade Balance in May estimated at -$48.3B versus -$48.3B in April.
Monthly Budget Statement for June estimated at $16.0B versus $21.2B in May.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on SSI, TPX and DELL. Goldman reiterated Underperform on DO. Tom Kurlak, writing for TheStreet.com, said semi-equipment buying this year will total about 20% of semi industry revenue, in line with the industry's 20-year average and only half of the level at the last cycle peak.

Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly lower on continuing fears of technology sector overcapacity. Goldman Sachs agreed to invest $40 million in a privately owned pharmacy chain in China, aiming to turn it into the biggest drug retailer in China, the South China Morning Post reported. IBM will Tuesday start selling a range of computers it claims are two years ahead of products offered by other software markets, the Financial Times reported. Some flat-panel display makers in Taiwan are expected to post "tens of billions" of dollars in losses in 2005 as plant expansions cause overcapacity, Commercial Times reported. Foreign investment into China rose 12% in the first half, climbing as companies including Sony and General Motors seek to benefit from booming domestic demand, Bloomberg said.

Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.0% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.07%.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open mixed in the morning as weakness in Asia offsets falling oil prices and better earnings reports. A strong rally is unlikely ahead of Intel and Juniper's reports after the close. The Portfolio is 25% net short heading into tomorrow.

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