Wednesday, July 21, 2004

Wednesday Close

S&P 500 1,093.88 -1.33%
NASDAQ 1,874.37 -2.23%  

Leading Sectors
Fashion +.96%
Banks -.60%
Drugs -.63%  

Lagging Sectors
Airlines -4.25%
Biotech -4.43%
Disk Drives -4.48%  

Other
Crude Oil 40.58 +.35%
Natural Gas 5.96 +.47%
Gold 397.20 -.03%
Base Metals 110.85 -.77%
U.S. Dollar 88.50 +.76%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.47% +.57%
VIX 16.40 +15.88%
Put/Call .75 +13.64%
NYSE Arms 1.43 +116.67%  

After-hours Movers
LRCX +5.56% after beating 4Q estimates.
FFIV +4.46% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q guidance.
AFCO -19.0% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q forecast substantially.
ORBZ -14.2% after cutting 2Q and 04 forecast.
ERES -10.7% on profit-taking after beating 2Q forecast, raising 3Q guidance and 04 outlook.
EFII -10.5% after missing 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q guidance.
EBAY -5.57% after beating 2Q estimates, but weaker 3Q/4Q guidance.
SWIR -4.92% on profit-taking after beating 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q guidance.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs rated DD Outperform.  Goldman reiterated Underperform on CL. 

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower today on some weaker-than-expected earnings reports and rising interest rates.  After the close, PepsiCo topped Coca-Cola in supermarket soft-drink sales in the New York metropolitan area after Coke shrank bottle sizes without cutting prices, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported.  Starbucks said net income climbed 44% in its fiscal third quarter, and the coffee-shop chain again raised its earnings outlook for the full fiscal year, Bloomberg reported.  Qualcomm, the world's second-largest maker of microchips that power mobile telephones, said third-quarter profit more than doubled to $486.4 million on rising demand for phones based on its technology, Bloomberg reported.  EBay said second-quarter earnings more than doubled to $190.4 million as a record number of users bought and sold merchandise online and utilized its electronic-payment system, Bloomberg said.  Microsoft's decision to spend $75 billion on dividends and stock buybacks may pressure other companies to increase their payouts, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE:  The Portfolio finished lower today on across-the-board weakness in my long positions.  I took profits in a few longs in the afternoon and added some more shorts, leaving the Portfolio with 25% net short market exposure.  This was very bad day for the Bulls.  Volume expanded and the advance/decline ratio was very poor.  Many stocks in the NASDAQ are sustaining significant technical damage.  Moreover, there is still way too much complacency for the amount of damage that is being done.  I expect the major U.S. averages to take out their May lows within the next few days.  It is my belief that investors are very worried over political developments, potential terrorist acts on U.S. soil, stubbornly high oil prices and the possibility that the economy is slowing substantially when the Fed is in the beginning stages of raising rates.


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