Monday, July 12, 2004

Monday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CTAS/.41
MDC/1.98
NVLS/.26
TSCO/.75
STI/1.26
MTB/1.45
HELE/.45

Splits
URBN 2-for-1

Economic Data
None of note.

Weekend Recommendations
Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on GILD, MWY, SEBL, SAP and mixed on BNI, SUNW. Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on LSS, SYY and mixed on VLCCF, ELY, KKD. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on TNP, DHB and AFR. Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street had guests that were positive on SPLS, LOW, GE, WTW, ISCA, WSH, DNR, ASKJ, CVD, MER, JPM, CSCO, MOT and INTC. Wall St. Week w/Fortune had guests that were positive on AIG, CEPH, BLL, SAFM, SWY, DIS, C and SYMC. Barron's had positive comments on VLO, BTU, TRW, LMT and negative comments on RDC, UCL. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on HD, BBY, SII, AGN, GE, SAP and Underperform on CL, UIS, AKS.

Weekend News
Volkswagen AG, Europe's biggest carmaker, will make an announcement soon that it won't be able to meet its 2004 profit forecast, German weekly magazine Spiegel reported. Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards earned almost $27 million as a trial lawyer in the four years before joining the Senate in 1999, and set up a shelter that helped him avoid paying $519,112 in Medicare taxes, the NY Times reported. The wife of Senator Kerry hosted former Enron Corp. Chairman Ken Lay at the couple's home 10 months after the energy company's collapse, the NY Times reported. Philadelphia International Airport is on pace to set a record for passenger traffic this year, helped by lower airfares and waning terrorism fears, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported. Los Alamos National Lab, a New Mexico nuclear weapons research facility, has lost two computer disks containing classified information, the third incident in eight months, the LA Times reported. Iraqi resistance fighters and foreign Islamic militants appear to be growing divided over strategy and goals, the NY Times reported. Automotive air bags have prevented the deaths of about 15,000 people in U.S. accidents over the past 20 years, the AP reported. OPEC may decide in its next meeting to increase production beyond the 500,000 barrels of oil a day members have already agreed to add in August if prices remain high, Bloomberg reported. Vodafone Group may increase its stock buyback to as much as 10% of the shares outstanding, the Sunday Times reported. Half of Europe's Internet-connected homes will have high-speed broadband connections by 2006, enabling new services such as Internet t.v. to be commercially viable, The Business newspaper reported. Saudi militants who entered Iraq to fight the U.S. military are returning home to plan strikes against the Saudi government and Western interests in the country, the Washington Post said. Shares of Domino's pizza may debut on the NYSE as soon as Tuesday after the company sells stock to the public to raise as much as $400 million, the Washington Post said. GE plans a research agreement with Applera Corp's Celera Genomics Group to develop cancer testing, the Financial Times said. North Korea may be selling heroin, methamphetamines and other drugs to fund ballistic missile production, Kyodo News said.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mixed, -1.0% to .75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.35%.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on falling energy prices, strength in Japan and no major terror attacks over the weekend. The Portfolio is up substantially for the year, thus I will try and maintain a relatively conservative stance over the coming weeks to preserve profits. The Portfolio is market neutral heading into the week.

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