Tuesday, July 20, 2004

Tuesday Close

S&P 500 1,108.67 +.71%
NASDAQ 1,917.07 +1.76%  

Leading Sectors
I-Banks +4.39%
Airlines +3.91%
Disk Drives +3.22%  

Lagging Sectors
Insurance -.55%
Homebuilders -.67%
Papers -.71%  

Other
Crude Oil 40.35 -.22%
Natural Gas 5.87 +.65%
Gold 401.60 -.12%
Base Metals 111.71 -.80%
U.S. Dollar 87.89 +.07%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.45% +.31%
VIX 14.17 -6.59%
Put/Call .66 -2.94%
NYSE Arms .66 -54.17%  

After-hours Movers
SANM +14.99% after meeting 3Q guidance and raising 04 forecast.
WEBX +14.67% after beating 2Q estimates, raising 3Q and 04 guidance.
INTL +12.04% after slightly missing 2Q forecast, but raising dividend.
LLTC +5.59% after beating 4Q forecast, raising 1Q guidance and announcing 10M share buyback.
ET +5.73% after beating 2Q forecast and raising 04 guidance.
MSFT +5.26% after saying it will return $75 billion to shareholders over the next four years through a special payout, stock buybacks and a higher dividend.
MOT +4.97% after beating 2Q estimates and saying Nextel location service is hampered by glitch.
SGTL -21.12% after beating 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q forecast.
HIBB -19.1% after lowering 2Q guidance.
NVEC -15.03% after meeting 1Q estimate, but saying net income will be lower due to higher R&D expenses.
PXLW -5.9% after meeting 2Q forecast and lowering 3Q guidance.
MDCO -6.86% after missing 2Q estimate.
AFCI -4.64% after missing 2Q forecast. 

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BSX, USB and MSFT.  

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher today on stronger earnings reports, comments by Alan Greenspan and falling oil prices.  After the close, shares of Pilgrim's Pride had their biggest drop in seven weeks after the KFC unit of YUM! Brands threatened to suspend some meat purchases following reported abuses at a plant, Bloomberg reported.  AU Optronics and rival flat-panel display makers in Taiwan will meet their profit forecasts this year even as prices for screens fall, the Commercial Times reported.  China's Internet users increased about 28% in the first half of this year to 87 million, slowing from 48.5% growth in the same period last year, the South China Morning Most reported.  Microsoft said it will buy back as much as $30 billion in shares over 4 years and set a one-time dividend of $3 a share.  Sandy Berger, former U.S. National Security Adviser under Bill Clinton, quit as an adviser to Senator Kerry amid an investigation into Berger's possible theft of classified materials, Bloomberg reported.  Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan said a recent slowdown in consumer spending because of inflation "should prove short-lived" and that the central bank can continue to raise interest rates at a "measured" pace, Bloomberg said. 

BOTTOM LINE:  The Portfolio finished slightly higher today on strength in my technology longs.  I added a few new airline and gaming longs in the afternoon, leaving the Portfolio with 125% net long market exposure.  One of my new longs is JBLU and I am using a $24.25 stop-loss on this position.  Today was a good day for the bulls as good news was rewarded, oil fell and many sectors saw substantial gains.  Based on after-hours action, tomorrow should be a positive day as well.  I continue to believe this is a tradable rally, but high levels of investor complacency will likely result in a resumption of the selling in the new few weeks.

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