Sunday, July 25, 2004

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,086.20 -1.38%

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

Bottom Line:  Overall, last week was not very good for the Bulls.  The NASDAQ advance/decline line continued to deteriorate, technical damage spread, most good news went unrewarded, the Put/Call and Arms readings fell and energy prices rose.  However, there were a few positives last week.  The Financials rose, AAII % Bulls fell, the VIX increased and most commodities declined in price.  As well, according to Thomson, companies boosted earnings by an estimated 24% in the second quarter, above the 19% estimate heading into earnings season.  Moreover, only 11.0% of companies have missed estimates so far.  Thomson also estimates earnings will increase a robust 15.3% in the second half of the year.  The S&P 500's 04 estimated P/E is now 16.51, down 68.0% from its peak.  This very reasonable valuation is also 24.2% lower than in 1992 and 11.5% lower than in 1987, years proceeding major bulls moves.  Considering interest rates are still near historic lows, inflation is below its long-term average, the high level of U.S. economic and military leadership, economic growth near 20-year highs, record-high American net-worth, one could argue that stocks are actually cheap at current levels.

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