Monday, July 12, 2004

Monday Close

S&P 500 1,114.35 +.14%
NASDAQ 1,936.92 -.48%


Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.63%
Restaurants +.91%
Insurance +.80%

Lagging Sectors
Disk Drives -1.73%
Networking -2.0%
Semis -2.21%

Other
Crude Oil 39.31 -.48%
Natural Gas 5.88 +.55%
Gold 408.00 -.10%
Base Metals 112.48 -.75%
U.S. Dollar 87.36 -.07%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.44% -.26%
VIX 14.96 -5.20%
Put/Call 1.19 +60.81%
NYSE Arms 1.35 +32.35%

After-hours Movers
PECS +8.68% after announcing that the Dept. of Homeland Security has awarded the company two task orders with $5.2 million.
LSI +4.04% after cutting 2Q revenue forecast, but maintaining profit guidance and saying second half of year would be stronger than first half.
SCSS -25.33% after lowering 2Q and 04 forecast.
FIC -15.15% after lowering 3Q and 4Q guidance substantially.
OO -8.29% after lowering 2Q and 04 forecast.
AGN -5.99% after saying its acne drug Tazoral failed to win the recommendation of a FDA panel as a treatment for psoriasis.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on DIS, HD, GILD and BBY.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed today as crude oil futures fell from a five-week high on speculation surging U.S. fuel imports will meet record demand. After the close, two workers at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport were injured and travelers were delayed after an explosion in an electrical vault knocked out power in two terminals, the Chicago Tribune said. Yahoo! said it bought privately held e-mail software developer Oddpost for an undisclosed amount Friday, CBS MarketWatch.com reported. The U.S. Congress probably won't pass legislation this year to permit greater federal funding of stem-cell research and allow imports of cheaper medicines, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today as my shorts were mostly higher and longs were mostly lower. I exited a few short positions in the afternoon as they hit stop-losses and added a couple of new ones, leaving the Portfolio with 25% net short market exposure. One of my new shorts is APA and I am using a $46.5 stop-loss on this position. The continuing fall in interest rates and the reversal in crude oil prices this afternoon are welcome developments. As well, Put/Call and Arms readings remained relatively high throughout the day. However, the falling VIX and relatively high AAII % Bulls reading are still showing too much investor complacency.

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