Tuesday, July 20, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,104.48 +.33%
NASDAQ 1,903.29 +1.03%  
 
Leading Sectors
I-Banks +3.59%
Internet +2.27%
Airlines +2.21%  
 
Lagging Sectors
Insurance -.98%
Papers -1.02%
Homebuilders -1.83%  
 
Other
Crude Oil 41.15 -.70%
Natural Gas 5.86 +.81%
Gold 400.80 -1.23%
Base Metals 111.71 -.80%
U.S. Dollar 87.53 +.40%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.37% +.58%
VIX 14.68 -3.36%
Put/Call .68 unch.
NYSE Arms .79 -45.14%  
 
Market Movers
SINA +10.7% on CSFB upgrade to Outperform.
RHAT +9.5% after its restated 1Q results were consistent with its previous comments.
BSX -4.0% after saying it had completed its stent recall.
GLW +10.2% after beating 2Q forecast, raising 3Q guidance and saying it is encouraged by Fiber-to-the-premises sales.
TASR -11.6% after beating 2Q estimates and saying it found a minor accounting error in 1Q that did not materially affect results.
NTMD +15.8% on continued optimism over recent cardiovascular study in African-Americans.
AEN +22.0% on speculation JP Morgan Partners is close to an agreement to purchase the company for about $1.4 billion.
ALDN +15.4% after beating 2Q forecast and raising 3Q guidance.
TEN +14.3% after substantially beating 2Q estimates.
BRLI +15.75% after Jefferies upgrade from Hold to Buy, target $16.50.
SSNC +14.2% after beating 2Q estimates and boosting 3Q and 04 guidance. RSH +8.3% after beating 2Q forecast, raising 3Q and 04 guidance.
DNB +8.1% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 04 forecast.
CGNX -10.1% on profit-taking after meeting 2Q estimates and boosting 3Q guidance.
ITRI -11.2% after missing 2Q estimate, lowering 04 guidance and RBC Capital downgrade to Sector Perform.
DSPG  -10.9% after missing 2Q sales forecast and lowering 04 guidance on product delays and reduced demand. 
 
Economic Data
Housing Starts for June were 1802K versus an estimate of 1990K and an upwardly revised 1970K in May.
Building Permits for June were 1924K versus an estimate of 2000K and an upwardly revised 2097K in May.  
 
Recommendations
LOW raised to Buy at UBS, target $61.  CFC raised to Outperform at CSFB, target $85.  OSIP rated Underperform at CSFB, target $50.  IMCL rated Outperform at CSFB, target $105.  CNP rated Overweight at Prudential, target $14.  Goldman Sachs said to Buy FLEX on weakness.  Goldman reiterated Outperform on RE, DOW and ALL.  Goldman reiterated Underperform on F, FRX and ATI.  Citi SmithBarney upgraded PEG to Buy, target $46.  Citi reiterated Sell on RKY, target $52.  Citi reiterated Sell on BA, target $36.  Citi reiterated Buy on ALL, target $55.  Citi reiterated Buy on MXRE, target $24.  Citi reiterated Buy on PRE, target $69.  Citi reiterated Sell on RNR, target $51.  Citi reiterated Buy on ACGL, target $48.  Citi reiterated Buy on LNCR, target $42.  Citi reiterated Buy on MSFT, target $33.  Citi reiterated Buy on SONSE, target $5.5.  Citi reiterated Buy on PNR, target $40.  Citi reiterated Sell on FLSH, target $15.  Citi reiterated Buy on ASD, target $46.    
 
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are higher mid-day, led by rebounding technology shares after several strong earnings reports prompted bargain-hunting.  The demand-supply imbalance in the U.S. coal market, which has almost doubled prices to about $60 a ton, won't last long, the Wall Street Journal reported.  President Bush is pushing Congress to extend a series of tax cuts before it leaves for the August recess at the end of this week, the Washington Post reported.  China Petrochemical estimates it has found more than 500 million metric tons of crude oil reserves in western China, China Central tv said.  Richard Grasso has filed suit against the NYSE for at least $50 million, alleging breach of contract, CNBC reported.  Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America, told CNBC the weakness in housing starts is temporary and he is already seeing a bounce back in other indicators for the month of July.  Japan's Cabinet Office plans to increase its official forecast for the current fiscal year's economic growth to 3.5% from 1.8%, Kyodo News said.  George Soros of the Quantum fund made $750 million last year, regaining the top spot for highly paid hedge fund managers, according to Institutional Investor's Alpha magazine.  OAO Yukos Oil's largest oil unit, which accounts for two-thirds of Yukos's output, will be seized and sold as Russia tries to recover $3.4 billion in back taxes, the Russian Justice Ministry said. 
 
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged today as my biotech longs are falling and a few of my shorts hit stop-losses, offsetting gains in other positions.  I also added a few more technology longs this morning, leaving the Portfolio 100% net long.  One of my new longs is YHOO and I am using a $28.25 stop-loss on the position.  Crude oil may have made an intermediate-term top today as the news from Russia could not send prices higher.  The tone of the market is much improved relative to the past few weeks.  I expect U.S. stocks to strengthen into the close on comments from Greenspan, short-covering and bargain-hunting in technology and financial shares.

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