Thursday, July 22, 2004

Thursday Close

S&P 500 1,096.84 +.27%
NASDAQ 1,889.06 +.78%  

Leading Sectors 
Semis +3.10%
Wireless +1.87%
Homebuilders +1.68%  

Lagging Sectors
Transports -.84%
Computer Services -.95%
Fashion -2.24%  

Other
Crude Oil 41.38 +1.97%
Natural Gas 6.11 +3.10%
Gold 395.50 +.05%
Base Metals 110.98 +.12%
U.S. Dollar 88.45 -.12%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.44% -.48%
VIX 15.75 -4.02%
Put/Call .91 +21.33%
NYSE Arms .81 -43.36%  

After-hours Movers
AMZN -4.85% after missing 2Q estimates, but raising 04 guidance.
FLEX -4.88% after announcing 24M share secondary and reaffirming guidance.
RSAS -6.12% after beating 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q guidance.
CLSR -7.59% after beating 2Q estimates, but giving disappointing guidance.
NTY -7.7% after disappointing 3Q estimates.
HTCH -9.4% after beating 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q guidance.
MENT -14.86% after missing 2Q revenues estimate and lowering 3Q forecast.
FDRY -14.11% after missing 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q forecast.
ARTI +13.9% after beating 3Q estimates.
TKLC +6.55% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q guidance.
OSTK +5.2% after beating 2Q estimates.
AVID +3.0% after beating 2Q estimates.
MSCC +3.6% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q guidance.
FINL +3.7% after the board launched a quarterly dividend and buyback plan.

Recommendations
Merrill Lynch raised SGP to Buy from Neutral.  Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AMGN, IR, SUN, UST, UPS and ALK.  Goldman reiterated Underperform on SLG and DCLK.  WGA, which makes color monitors and video displays for slot machines and other devices, is expected to benefit as demand for gambling grows, Business Week said.  RDWR may recover now that new programs have been implemented, Business Week said.  POT is expected to benefit from growing demand from farmers for its products, Business Week reported.   

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished modestly higher today on short-covering and speculation the major indices formed a double-bottom.  After the close, nineteen Los Alamos National Laboratory workers were placed on leave as officials probe the disappearance of computer disks that held classified information, the AP reported.  Motorola CEO Zander may restructure the world's No. 2 maker of mobile phones into customer-based divisions instead of product-based units, Business Week reported.  Japan's seven-month ban on U.S. beef may end if officials in Washington and Tokyo accept a compromise recommended by Japanese and U.S. scientists, the AP reported.  Iowa Republican Senator Charles Grassley said he'd push in September for a five-year renewal of tax breaks for middle-income families requested by President Bush, Bloomberg reported.  Microsoft said fourth-quarter profit rose 81% as sales of Office programs and Windows corporate network software increased.  Crude oil and gasoline futures rose, lifted by surging natural gas prices, after the U.S. Energy Department reported gas inventories gained less than forecast, Bloomberg reported.  A state-appointed arbitrator's settlement of a two-year-old contract dispute between Boston's police union and the city won't keep police from picketing events at next week's Democratic National Convention, Bloomberg said.  Metabolife Intl. and its founder were indicted by a federal grand jury for making false statements to U.S. regulators about consumer claims over and ephedra-based diet supplement, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE:  The Portfolio finished higher today and I added a few new shorts into afternoon strength, leaving market exposure 50% net short.  One of my new shorts is ARO and I am using a $31 stop-loss on this position.  The strength of the afternoon rally today was surprising and could continue for a few more days.  However, I still believe that the major U.S. indices will fall through their recent lows set in May in the near future.

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