Tuesday, July 06, 2004

Tuesday Close

S&P 500 1,116.19 -.82%
NASDAQ 1,963.43 -2.15%


Leading Sectors
Energy +.45%
Iron/Steel +.37%
Foods +.10%

Lagging Sectors
Disk Drives -4.20%
Software -5.05%
Computer Boxmakers -5.23%

Other
Crude Oil 39.53 -.30%
Natural Gas 6.40 -.30%
Gold 393.00 unch.
Base Metals 110.71 +.70%
U.S. Dollar 88.21 -.02%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.48% +.48%
VIX 16.25 +7.76%
Put/Call 1.08 +33.33%
NYSE Arms 2.17 -25.43%

After-hours Movers
APPB +4.21% after reiterating 2Q and 04 forecast.
ASCL -21.54% after cutting 2Q and 3Q forecast.
JDAS -19.83% after lowering 2Q forecast.

Recommendations
TheStreet.com says that general public short-selling is at an all-time high which bodes well for the second half of the year as this group of investors has a bad track record.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower today on rising oil prices, political worries and earnings disappointments in the technology sector. After the close, Starwood Hotels said it will open its first "W" hotel in Europe, the Financial Times reported. Drinking milk and taking calcium supplements daily may help prevent colon cancer, according to a study in tomorrow's Journal of the National Cancer Institute. The U.S. Commerce Department imposed duties of as much as 113% on imported shrimp from China and up to 93% on those from Vietnam, in a preliminary decision on a complaint by U.S. harvesters and processors, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on weakness in my technology long positions. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio with 50% net long market exposure. Today was disappointing for the bulls, as the NASDAQ fell back below its 200-day moving average and through the 2000 level. Once again, the overcapacity generated during the technology bubble of the late 90's is disrupting technology stock fundamentals. Too many technology companies are still competing for the same business, thus any slight decline in demand results in outsized earnings shortfalls. I now expect the major U.S. indices to explore the lower end of their trading ranges at some point during the next month on concerns over the tech sector and anti-business political rhetoric.

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