Bottom Line: One way to play the acceleration in economic growth I envision during the fourth quarter would be to short TLT as long-term interest rates should rise from current levels. There are also options available on this security.
Sunday, September 12, 2004
Chart of the Week
iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund
Bottom Line: One way to play the acceleration in economic growth I envision during the fourth quarter would be to short TLT as long-term interest rates should rise from current levels. There are also options available on this security.
Bottom Line: One way to play the acceleration in economic growth I envision during the fourth quarter would be to short TLT as long-term interest rates should rise from current levels. There are also options available on this security.
Weekly Outlook
There are several important economic reports and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week. Economic reports include the Monthly Budget Statement, Current Account Balance, Advance Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing, Business Inventories, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Consumer Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed and Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence. Retail Sales, CPI, Philly Fed and Consumer Confidence all have market-moving potential.
Oracle Corp.(ORCL), Best Buy(BBY), Cintas(CTAS), General Mills(GIS), AG Edwards(AGE), Carnival Corp.(CCL), Circuit City(CC) and Jabil Circuit(JBL) are some of the more important companies that release quarterly earnings this week. There are also a couple of other events that have market-moving potential. Rosh Hashanah and an OPEC meeting could also impact trading this week.
Bottom Line: I expect U.S. stocks to finish the week modestly higher as traders and investors boost shares on optimism over diminishing terrorism fears, more merger activity, declining energy prices, falling inflation/interest rate concerns and economic data showing stabilizing sustainable growth. With measures of investor anxiety beginning to reach excessively complacent levels, I expect U.S. equities to put in a shot-term top during the next 2 weeks. However, I continue to believe stocks will resume their rally during the latter part of October and move meaningfully higher during the fourth quarter. My short-term trading indicators are still giving Buy signals and the Portfolio is 125% net long heading into the week.
Oracle Corp.(ORCL), Best Buy(BBY), Cintas(CTAS), General Mills(GIS), AG Edwards(AGE), Carnival Corp.(CCL), Circuit City(CC) and Jabil Circuit(JBL) are some of the more important companies that release quarterly earnings this week. There are also a couple of other events that have market-moving potential. Rosh Hashanah and an OPEC meeting could also impact trading this week.
Bottom Line: I expect U.S. stocks to finish the week modestly higher as traders and investors boost shares on optimism over diminishing terrorism fears, more merger activity, declining energy prices, falling inflation/interest rate concerns and economic data showing stabilizing sustainable growth. With measures of investor anxiety beginning to reach excessively complacent levels, I expect U.S. equities to put in a shot-term top during the next 2 weeks. However, I continue to believe stocks will resume their rally during the latter part of October and move meaningfully higher during the fourth quarter. My short-term trading indicators are still giving Buy signals and the Portfolio is 125% net long heading into the week.
Market Week in Review
S&P 500 1,123.92 +.50%
Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
Bottom Line: Last week's action was positive for the Bulls as the overall market consolidated recent gains and most sectors/stocks rose. The technology and steel sectors led the way. Technology investors bid shares higher from very oversold levels after a few bell-weathers made positive comments with respect to future growth and traders speculated the bad news had already been discounted in the stocks. Steel stocks broke higher from their recent consolidation on earnings optimism, low valuations and speculation that energy prices would fall further in coming weeks. Falling interest rates, after better-than-expected inflation readings and positive comments from Greenspan, also helped lift shares. Finally, the comments by Judge Walker, who ruled against the Justice Dept. in the Oracle/PeopleSoft case, were a big positive for technology stocks towards week's end. This should provide the catalyst for imminent consolidation within this sector still burdened by the overcapacity generated during the bubble of the late 90's. On the negative side, most measures of investor anxiety are now approaching levels of complacency normally associated with short-term tops.
Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
Bottom Line: Last week's action was positive for the Bulls as the overall market consolidated recent gains and most sectors/stocks rose. The technology and steel sectors led the way. Technology investors bid shares higher from very oversold levels after a few bell-weathers made positive comments with respect to future growth and traders speculated the bad news had already been discounted in the stocks. Steel stocks broke higher from their recent consolidation on earnings optimism, low valuations and speculation that energy prices would fall further in coming weeks. Falling interest rates, after better-than-expected inflation readings and positive comments from Greenspan, also helped lift shares. Finally, the comments by Judge Walker, who ruled against the Justice Dept. in the Oracle/PeopleSoft case, were a big positive for technology stocks towards week's end. This should provide the catalyst for imminent consolidation within this sector still burdened by the overcapacity generated during the bubble of the late 90's. On the negative side, most measures of investor anxiety are now approaching levels of complacency normally associated with short-term tops.
Economic Week in Review
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 132.60 +1.14%
Consumer Credit for July rose to $10.9 billion versus estimates of $7.5 billion and a downwardly revised $4.3 billion in June. The more rapid growth in debt coincides with a rebound in consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. economy. "Consumers charged up a storm in July, taking advantage of heavily discounted merchandise," said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research. Consumers are watching their finances, other measures suggest. The rate at which cardholders repaid debt climbed to a record in June, and the delinquency rate fell to a four-year low, Moody's Investors Service reported. The so-called payment rate climbed to almost 17%, Bloomberg reported.
The Import Price Index for August rose 1.7% versus estimates of a .6% increase and a .3% rise in July. Costs of imported business equipment, consumer goods and vehicles were unchanged last month, suggesting profit margins will shrink until companies can pass along rising raw materials prices. The cost of imported petroleum surged 9.6% after rising 2% in July. Imports account for about 15% of all goods and services bought in the U.S., Bloomberg reported.
Initial Jobless Claims plunged to 319,000 last week versus estimates of 345,000 and 363,000 the prior week. Continuing Claims fell to 2.9M versus estimates of 2.87M and 2.88M prior. There were 3.19M job openings in July, the most since September 2001 and a sign hiring may pick up and propel the economy, Bloomberg said. Claims during the next several weeks may be difficult to interpret because of distortions stemming from Hurricane Frances and the timing of the Labor Day holiday, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.
Wholesales Inventories for July rose 1.3% versus estimates of a .6% rise and a 1.1% increase in June. "The fact that businesses are willing to accumulate inventories shows a good degree of business optimism and suggests that we are indeed emerging from the soft patch," said Wesley M. Beal, an economist at IDEAglobal. "This indicates to me that we're seeing some inventory rebuilding, which is good news because levels have been so low they actually posed the risk of missed sales," said Timothy Rogers, chief economist at Briefing.com.
The Producer Price Index for August fell .1% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .1% rise in July. The PPI Ex Food & Energy for August fell .1% versus estimates of a .1% increase and a .1% gain in July. "This lets the Fed continue raising rates at a moderate pace," said Richard Yamarone. "Despite the rise in oil prices through mid-August, inflation and inflation expectations have eased in recent months," Alan Greenspan said.
The Trade Balance for July fell to -$50.1 billion versus estimates of -$51.5 billion and -$55.0 billion in June. The trade gap with China grew to $14.9 billion, the widest ever, and accounted for almost a third of the imbalance, Bloomberg reported. The shortfall is likely to intensify pressure for the country to stop pegging its currency to the dollar, which holds down the price of Chinese exports, Bloomberg said.
Bottom Line: Overall, last week's data were positive. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index, which has been a very accurate predictor of future economic growth, broke its recent downtrend last week. Consumers, after a brief respite, are beginning to spend again. Moreover, it also appears they are beginning to shore up their finances, which is a very good sign. Measures of inflation are decelerating, thus leading to falling interest rates as future inflation expectations diminish. I continue to anticipate a decline in crude prices to around $35/bbl. which should lead to a further deceleration in inflation measures. The plunge in jobless claims was likely a result of hurricane disruptions, however they continue to head in the right direction. Finally, managers are displaying more optimism as inventories are at more healthy levels, which should also help to boost current growth. I continue to expect U.S. economic growth to approach 5% during the fourth quarter. Falling energy prices, declining interest rates, stabilizing Chinese growth, rebuilding in Florida, an end to the uncertainty and bitterness over the U.S. election, companies purchasing equipment before tax incentives expire at year-end, diminishing terrorism fears and an improving big picture in Iraq should provide the catalysts.
Consumer Credit for July rose to $10.9 billion versus estimates of $7.5 billion and a downwardly revised $4.3 billion in June. The more rapid growth in debt coincides with a rebound in consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. economy. "Consumers charged up a storm in July, taking advantage of heavily discounted merchandise," said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research. Consumers are watching their finances, other measures suggest. The rate at which cardholders repaid debt climbed to a record in June, and the delinquency rate fell to a four-year low, Moody's Investors Service reported. The so-called payment rate climbed to almost 17%, Bloomberg reported.
The Import Price Index for August rose 1.7% versus estimates of a .6% increase and a .3% rise in July. Costs of imported business equipment, consumer goods and vehicles were unchanged last month, suggesting profit margins will shrink until companies can pass along rising raw materials prices. The cost of imported petroleum surged 9.6% after rising 2% in July. Imports account for about 15% of all goods and services bought in the U.S., Bloomberg reported.
Initial Jobless Claims plunged to 319,000 last week versus estimates of 345,000 and 363,000 the prior week. Continuing Claims fell to 2.9M versus estimates of 2.87M and 2.88M prior. There were 3.19M job openings in July, the most since September 2001 and a sign hiring may pick up and propel the economy, Bloomberg said. Claims during the next several weeks may be difficult to interpret because of distortions stemming from Hurricane Frances and the timing of the Labor Day holiday, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.
Wholesales Inventories for July rose 1.3% versus estimates of a .6% rise and a 1.1% increase in June. "The fact that businesses are willing to accumulate inventories shows a good degree of business optimism and suggests that we are indeed emerging from the soft patch," said Wesley M. Beal, an economist at IDEAglobal. "This indicates to me that we're seeing some inventory rebuilding, which is good news because levels have been so low they actually posed the risk of missed sales," said Timothy Rogers, chief economist at Briefing.com.
The Producer Price Index for August fell .1% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .1% rise in July. The PPI Ex Food & Energy for August fell .1% versus estimates of a .1% increase and a .1% gain in July. "This lets the Fed continue raising rates at a moderate pace," said Richard Yamarone. "Despite the rise in oil prices through mid-August, inflation and inflation expectations have eased in recent months," Alan Greenspan said.
The Trade Balance for July fell to -$50.1 billion versus estimates of -$51.5 billion and -$55.0 billion in June. The trade gap with China grew to $14.9 billion, the widest ever, and accounted for almost a third of the imbalance, Bloomberg reported. The shortfall is likely to intensify pressure for the country to stop pegging its currency to the dollar, which holds down the price of Chinese exports, Bloomberg said.
Bottom Line: Overall, last week's data were positive. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index, which has been a very accurate predictor of future economic growth, broke its recent downtrend last week. Consumers, after a brief respite, are beginning to spend again. Moreover, it also appears they are beginning to shore up their finances, which is a very good sign. Measures of inflation are decelerating, thus leading to falling interest rates as future inflation expectations diminish. I continue to anticipate a decline in crude prices to around $35/bbl. which should lead to a further deceleration in inflation measures. The plunge in jobless claims was likely a result of hurricane disruptions, however they continue to head in the right direction. Finally, managers are displaying more optimism as inventories are at more healthy levels, which should also help to boost current growth. I continue to expect U.S. economic growth to approach 5% during the fourth quarter. Falling energy prices, declining interest rates, stabilizing Chinese growth, rebuilding in Florida, an end to the uncertainty and bitterness over the U.S. election, companies purchasing equipment before tax incentives expire at year-end, diminishing terrorism fears and an improving big picture in Iraq should provide the catalysts.
Saturday, September 11, 2004
Friday, September 10, 2004
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 1,123.92 +50%
Dow 10,313.07 +.22%
NASDAQ 1,894.31 +1.12%
Russell 2000 569.91 +1.81%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 965.59 +.70%
Put/Call .83 -18.63%
NYSE Arms .74 +60.87%
Volatility(VIX) 13.76 -3.64%
AAII % Bulls 50.50 +21.66%
US Dollar 88.39 -.66%
CRB 271.61 -2.36%
Futures Spot Prices
Gold 403.80 -1.03%
Crude Oil 42.81 -2.84%
Unleaded Gasoline 116.42 -2.43%
Natural Gas 4.57 -4.13%
Base Metals 108.26 +2.55%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.18% -2.79%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.83% +1.04%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +4.56%
Networking +4.37%
Iron/Steel +4.16%
Lagging Sectors
Hospitals -.47%
Drugs -1.12%
Papers -1.67%
*% Gain or loss for the week
S&P 500 1,123.92 +50%
Dow 10,313.07 +.22%
NASDAQ 1,894.31 +1.12%
Russell 2000 569.91 +1.81%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 965.59 +.70%
Put/Call .83 -18.63%
NYSE Arms .74 +60.87%
Volatility(VIX) 13.76 -3.64%
AAII % Bulls 50.50 +21.66%
US Dollar 88.39 -.66%
CRB 271.61 -2.36%
Futures Spot Prices
Gold 403.80 -1.03%
Crude Oil 42.81 -2.84%
Unleaded Gasoline 116.42 -2.43%
Natural Gas 4.57 -4.13%
Base Metals 108.26 +2.55%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.18% -2.79%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.83% +1.04%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +4.56%
Networking +4.37%
Iron/Steel +4.16%
Lagging Sectors
Hospitals -.47%
Drugs -1.12%
Papers -1.67%
*% Gain or loss for the week
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