Indices
S&P 500 1,205.10 -1.20%
DJIA 10,397.29 -1.53%
NASDAQ 2,120.77 -.69%
Russell 2000 684.64 -.59%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,020.59 -1.05%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,054.08 -.01%
S&P Barra Growth 577.33 -1.10%
S&P Barra Value 623.50 -1.29%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 577.97 -1.18%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 730.13 -1.48%
Morgan Stanley Technology 491.06 -1.23%
Transports 3,667.36 -1.38%
Utilities 399.90 +1.37%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 7,706.00 -.57%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 50.85 -9.20%
Put/Call 1.18 +13.46%
NYSE Arms 1.68 +44.83%
Volatility(VIX) 13.72 +2.23%
ISE Sentiment 172.00 +43.33%
AAII % Bulls 36.14 +23.39%
US Dollar 87.86 -.81%
CRB 317.10 +.61%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 66.13 +.27%
Unleaded Gasoline 192.69 +1.15%
Natural Gas 9.79 +7.60%
Heating Oil 183.66 +.09%
Gold 442.50 -.18%
Base Metals 129.99 +.74%
Copper 164.20 +.06%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.18% -4.75%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.77% -.52%
Leading Sectors
Alternative Energy +4.63%
Utilities +1.37%
Semis +.38%
Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -2.44%
Banks -2.52%
Tobacco -3.19%
One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers
*5-Day % Change
Friday, August 26, 2005
Stocks Lower Mid-day on Greenspan Comments and Lower Consumer Confidence
Indices
S&P 500 1,205.85 -.54%
DJIA 10,402.40 -.46%
NASDAQ 2,121.74 -.59%
Russell 2000 649.86 -1.19%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,033.94 -.57%
S&P Barra Growth 577.83 -.46%
S&P Barra Value 623.83 -.61%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 577.84 -.40%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 729.56 -.43%
Morgan Stanley Technology 490.49 -.51%
Transports 3,655.33 -1.10%
Utilities 400.48 -.41%
Put/Call 1.22 +41.86%
NYSE Arms 1.81 +96.77%
Volatility(VIX) 13.97 +1.75%
ISE Sentiment 199.00 -1.97%
US Dollar 87.70 +.07%
CRB 319.73 +.44%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.80 +.46%
Unleaded Gasoline 197.30 +.47%
Natural Gas 9.95 +1.84%
Heating Oil 187.00 +.03%
Gold 442.00 -.25%
Base Metals 129.99 +.74%
Copper 164.30 +2.30%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.17% +.55%
Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +.63%
Gold & Silver +.17%
Software -.22%
Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -1.74%
Steel -1.95%
Tobacco -2.59%
S&P 500 1,205.85 -.54%
DJIA 10,402.40 -.46%
NASDAQ 2,121.74 -.59%
Russell 2000 649.86 -1.19%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,033.94 -.57%
S&P Barra Growth 577.83 -.46%
S&P Barra Value 623.83 -.61%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 577.84 -.40%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 729.56 -.43%
Morgan Stanley Technology 490.49 -.51%
Transports 3,655.33 -1.10%
Utilities 400.48 -.41%
Put/Call 1.22 +41.86%
NYSE Arms 1.81 +96.77%
Volatility(VIX) 13.97 +1.75%
ISE Sentiment 199.00 -1.97%
US Dollar 87.70 +.07%
CRB 319.73 +.44%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.80 +.46%
Unleaded Gasoline 197.30 +.47%
Natural Gas 9.95 +1.84%
Heating Oil 187.00 +.03%
Gold 442.00 -.25%
Base Metals 129.99 +.74%
Copper 164.30 +2.30%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.17% +.55%
Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +.63%
Gold & Silver +.17%
Software -.22%
Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -1.74%
Steel -1.95%
Tobacco -2.59%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Oil Tanker shorts, Steel shorts and Internet longs. I temporarily hedged further this morning, however the Portfolio is now back to 50% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is lower and volume is very light. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. Today’s overall market action is modestly negative given a rise in long-term rates after Greenspan’s comments and hurricane worries. The AAII % Bulls rose to 36.14% this week from 29.29% the prior week; this reading is at below-average levels. Likewise, the % Bears fell to 31.33% from 40.40% the prior week; this is slightly above-average levels. Sentiment will likely fall next week. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on short-covering and bargain hunting.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The Federal Reserve is paying closer attention to the rising values of assets such as stocks and homes, as low interest rates encourage more risk-taking.
- Time Warner’s publishing unit issued a hiring freeze and clamped down on spending on customer gifts and travel to meet profit targets.
- US Treasuries are falling after Fed Chairman Greenspan said the central bank is paying closer attention to asset values.
- Broadcom CEO McGregor said he is focused on winning Nokia Oyj as a customer for the company’s mobile-phone chips for the first time.
Wall Street Journal:
- Merck may consider settling a small number of cases involving its painkiller Vioxx, if patients who claim they were damaged fit certain criteria.
- Some mutual funds, seeking to boost returns, have been beating the market by acting as hedge funds.
- China’s environmental destruction as a result of fast economic growth has many middle-class Chinese worried as water is drained from parks, old palaces and wetlands.
- RealNetworks and Napster failed to reach an agreement with music copyright holders over how much to pay copyright holders for streamed music.
- The SEC has started an informal inquiry into Pixar computer animation film studios over its DVD release of “The Incredibles.”
- McDonald’s and Subway are finding the new fad for toasted sandwiches is harder to satisfy than expected.
NY Times:
- Northwest Airlines mechanics’ strike probably won’t lead to the airline to seek bankruptcy protection unless the walkout’s impact on operations worsens significantly.
Washington Post:
- Sirius Satellite Radio will have two channels devoted to radio host Howard Stern when his show begins airing in January.
Chronicle of Higher Education:
- More than 100 Iowa State University faculty members have signed a statement that denounces “intelligent design,” the theory that a higher being oversaw evolution, and asks colleagues not to suggest the concept is science.
- The Federal Reserve is paying closer attention to the rising values of assets such as stocks and homes, as low interest rates encourage more risk-taking.
- Time Warner’s publishing unit issued a hiring freeze and clamped down on spending on customer gifts and travel to meet profit targets.
- US Treasuries are falling after Fed Chairman Greenspan said the central bank is paying closer attention to asset values.
- Broadcom CEO McGregor said he is focused on winning Nokia Oyj as a customer for the company’s mobile-phone chips for the first time.
Wall Street Journal:
- Merck may consider settling a small number of cases involving its painkiller Vioxx, if patients who claim they were damaged fit certain criteria.
- Some mutual funds, seeking to boost returns, have been beating the market by acting as hedge funds.
- China’s environmental destruction as a result of fast economic growth has many middle-class Chinese worried as water is drained from parks, old palaces and wetlands.
- RealNetworks and Napster failed to reach an agreement with music copyright holders over how much to pay copyright holders for streamed music.
- The SEC has started an informal inquiry into Pixar computer animation film studios over its DVD release of “The Incredibles.”
- McDonald’s and Subway are finding the new fad for toasted sandwiches is harder to satisfy than expected.
NY Times:
- Northwest Airlines mechanics’ strike probably won’t lead to the airline to seek bankruptcy protection unless the walkout’s impact on operations worsens significantly.
Washington Post:
- Sirius Satellite Radio will have two channels devoted to radio host Howard Stern when his show begins airing in January.
Chronicle of Higher Education:
- More than 100 Iowa State University faculty members have signed a statement that denounces “intelligent design,” the theory that a higher being oversaw evolution, and asks colleagues not to suggest the concept is science.
High Energy Prices Taking Toll on Sentiment
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for August fell to 89.1 versus estimates of 92.5 and a prior estimate of 92.7.
BOTTOM LINE: US consumer confidence fell for the first time in three months in August as Americans paid record prices at the gas pump, Bloomberg reported. The average retail price of a gallon of regular gas increased to $2.61 this week. The current conditions component of the index, which measures whether or not consumers feel it’s a good time to buy big-ticket items, fell to 108.2 from 113.5 in July. The expectations component of the index fell to 76.9 from 85.5 the prior month. I continue to believe consumer sentiment will make new cycle highs over the coming months.
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Japan’s consumer prices fell in July for a second month, suggesting deflation lingers and that the central bank isn’t likely to abandon its policy of pumping money into the world’s second-largest economy.
- The yen fell against the dollar for a third day in four after a Financial Times report said al-Qaeda may be planning a terror attack on an Asian financial center.
- Goldman Sachs was hired to prepare an IPO for Bank of China, the nation’s second-biggest lender.
- Hurricane Katrina hit land in southeastern Florida and caused two fatalitites.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on JCI.
- Reiterated Underperform on CMOS.
Business Week:
- AtheroGenics(AGIX), which develops treatments for inflammatory diseases, may be bought by a bigger pharmaceutical company, citing Medical Technology Stock Letter editor John McCamant.
- Tarragon Corp.(TARR), a US homebuilder and property investment company, is expected to see its shares climb even if housing demand slows.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated unch.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.06%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
AGI/.09
Upcoming Splits
OSK 2-for-1
ROP 2-for-1
TTI 3-for-2
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to fall to 92.5 versus a prior estimate of 92.7.
Bloomberg:
- Japan’s consumer prices fell in July for a second month, suggesting deflation lingers and that the central bank isn’t likely to abandon its policy of pumping money into the world’s second-largest economy.
- The yen fell against the dollar for a third day in four after a Financial Times report said al-Qaeda may be planning a terror attack on an Asian financial center.
- Goldman Sachs was hired to prepare an IPO for Bank of China, the nation’s second-biggest lender.
- Hurricane Katrina hit land in southeastern Florida and caused two fatalitites.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on JCI.
- Reiterated Underperform on CMOS.
Business Week:
- AtheroGenics(AGIX), which develops treatments for inflammatory diseases, may be bought by a bigger pharmaceutical company, citing Medical Technology Stock Letter editor John McCamant.
- Tarragon Corp.(TARR), a US homebuilder and property investment company, is expected to see its shares climb even if housing demand slows.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated unch.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.06%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
AGI/.09
Upcoming Splits
OSK 2-for-1
ROP 2-for-1
TTI 3-for-2
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to fall to 92.5 versus a prior estimate of 92.7.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher on gains in energy shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to move higher later in the day. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
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