Monday, October 03, 2005

Stocks Finish Mixed as Strength in Tech Offset Weakness in Commodity Shares

Indices
S&P 500 1,226.70 -.17%
DJIA 10,535.48 -.31%
NASDAQ 2,155.43 +.17%
Russell 2000 670.55 +.41%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,281.00 -.02%
S&P Barra Growth 585.25 -.31%
S&P Barra Value 637.25 -.04%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.81 -.26%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 727.64 -.38%
Morgan Stanley Technology 508.39 +.36%
Transports 3,736.59 -.11%
Utilities 437.63 +1.21%
Put/Call .88 +7.32%
NYSE Arms 1.07 +25.55%
Volatility(VIX) 12.46 +4.53%
ISE Sentiment 237.00 +39.41%
US Dollar 90.13 +.68%
CRB 333.22 +.08%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 65.23 -.11%
Unleaded Gasoline 204.83 -.67%
Natural Gas 14.12 +.73%
Heating Oil 207.00 -.52%
Gold 469.00 -.06%
Base Metals 128.96 -.42%
Copper 175.80 -.06%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.38% +1.37%

Leading Sectors
Utilities +1.21%
Computer Hardware +1.13%
HMOs +.99%

Lagging Sectors
Insurance -.72%
Steel -1.21%
Oil Tankers -1.25%

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Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on GOOG, QCOM, MYL and PFE.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- MCI Inc. said it will pay $315 million as part of a settlement with 15 states and the District of Columbia over tax claims.
- The US dollar rose to a 16-month high against the yen and gained versus the euro, while US Treasuries declined after an index of US manufacturing was higher than forecast.
- US Representative Tom Delay was indicted for a second time in a week by a Texas grand jury in connection with alleged campaign fundraising abuses.

Nikkei English News:
- Matsushita Electric Industrial, Hitachi Ltd. and Pioneer Corp. plan to unveil a plasma display panel that runs on half the power consumed by current plasma sets.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Internet longs, Semiconductor longs, Airline longs and Oil Tanker shorts. I exited my IWM and QQQQ shorts and added PWR long in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was modestly positive today as the advance/decline line finished slightly higher, most sectors rose and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today’s market action was neutral. The Utility Index is up 51.33% over the last 12 months and is hitting an all-time high today. Historically, this index would be showing some weakness if a substantial increase in inflation was on the horizon.

Stocks Mixed Mid-day as Energy Prices Fall and Long-term Rates Rise

Indices
S&P 500 1,226.29 -.21%
DJIA 10,538.04 -.29%
NASDAQ 2,156.83 +.24%
Russell 2000 670.10 +.35%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,275.70 -.06%
S&P Barra Growth 585.69 -.24%
S&P Barra Value 636.99 -.08%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.31 -.35%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 728.08 -.32%
Morgan Stanley Technology 508.97 +.48%
Transports 3,733.07 -.20%
Utilities 436.67 +1.0%
Put/Call .88 +7.32%
NYSE Arms 1.01 +18.29%
Volatility(VIX) 12.55 +5.29%
ISE Sentiment 204.00 +20.0%
US Dollar 90.16 +.71%
CRB 332.92 -.02%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 65.80 -.74%
Unleaded Gasoline 208.00 -.80%
Natural Gas 14.10 +1.36%
Heating Oil 209.00 -1.86%
Gold 469.90 -.51%
Base Metals 128.96 -.42%
Copper 175.90 +1.82%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.37% +1.23%

Leading Sectors %
Semis +1.17%
HMOs +.94%
Utilities +.89%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -.85%
Telecom -.85%
Steel -1.04%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Internet longs, Semiconductor longs, Airline longs and Oil Tanker shorts. I exited the remainder of my TLT long this morning and added IWM and QQQQ shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is slightly above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is neutral given the rise in long-term rates, decline in energy prices and the mostly positive economic data. During the week ended Sept. 30, the financial industry saw the greatest net insider selling in the S&P 500. Insiders sold $27,440,469 worth of stock and bought $50,922. Overall, insider selling in the S&P 500 dropped considerably for the second week in a row. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on declining energy prices and stabilizing long-term rates.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- A surge in stock sales and mergers made for the best third quarter ever for investment bankers.
- The US dollar is rising to the highest in 16 months against the yen after the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey showed business confidence rose less than economists expected.
- RH Donnelley Corp., a publisher of yellow pages telephone directories, agreed to buy Dex Media for $4.2 billion to expand in new markets in the Midwestern US.
- Gasoline prices are falling even as traders worry over US refineries that remain shut from the hurricanes and French facilities that are closed because of union strikes.
- US Energy Secretary Bodman said the US government will help Americans conserve energy in their homes and businesses to east the pain of record natural gas and heating oil prices this winter.
- US Treasuries are falling after an industry report showed manufacturing growth in September unexpectedly accelerated after Hurricane Katrina.
- President Bush chose White House Counsel Harriet Miers to succeed Sandra Day O’Connor on the Supreme Court.

Wall Street Journal:
- US companies have announced plans to bring home $206.2 billion of foreign profits so far this year, spurred on by a one-year tax concession.
- EBay’s $2.6 billion purchase of Skype Technologies SA has been met with a chilly reception from investors.
- The LA Times has turned to shorter reporting, more regional stories, and coverage of celebrities to boost years of sagging circulation and advertising.
- Europe is seeing a head of steam developing for the idea of a flat-rate tax on income, to be paid by all citizens, rich and poor.

NY Post:
- Retailers gearing up for the coming holiday season are cutting prices on some popular toys to lure customers facing higher gasoline prices and a hurricane-damaged economy.
- Marine Corps recruiters in NY are using craigslist.com, a free Internet posting service, to help attract enlistees, citing military officials.

Construction at Record Levels, Manufacturing Jumps Sharply Even with Hurricanes

- Construction Spending for August rose .4% versus estimates of a .4% increase and a .3% gain in July.
- ISM Manufacturing for September rose to 59.4 versus estimates of 52.0 and a reading of 53.6 the prior month.
- ISM Prices Paid for September rose to 78.0 versus estimates of 73.0 and a reading of 62.5in August.

BOTTOM LINE: US construction spending rose in August to a record, led by a jump in highway projects, and may climb for the rest of the year as rebuilding after Hurricane Katrina accelerates, Bloomberg said. Spending on residential construction rose .2%, non-residential construction spending rose .7% and government-funded construction rose .5%. Construction will remain very strong for the foreseeable future as the effects of the highway bill and hurricane rebuilding take hold.

US manufacturing unexpectedly accelerated in September, suggesting the recovery from two Gulf Coast hurricanes will be rapid, Bloomberg reported. The new orders component of the index rose to 63.8 from 56.4 in August. The employment component of the index rose to 53.1 from 52.6 in August. This is the third manufacturing reading to show acceleration in September, which is remarkable considering the effects of the hurricanes. Manufacturing will continue to boost economic growth through year-end. I expect the prices paid indices to begin decelerating again towards year-end.

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Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US stocks rose for the week, capping their best quarter of the year, as better-than-expected earnings from companies such as PepsiCo and Micron Technology sparked optimism that profits may weather higher energy prices.
- President Bush said he expects more insurgent attacks in Iraq before its citizens vote in two weeks on a new constitution, and he urged Americans to hold firm in the struggle against terrorism.
- The US dollar capped its third straight quarterly gain against the euro and the yen, the longest winning streak since 2001.
- At least 25 people were killed and 95 wounded on the Indonesian resort island of Bali in attacks that were probably conducted by three suicide bombers.
- Exxon Mobil’s $12.8 billion Sakhalin-1 project started producing oil and natural gas in Far East Russia a decade after the government and partners signed a contract to share production from the venture.
- Exxon Mobil of the US and China National Petroleum of China were among winners of permits to search for oil and gas at an auction in Libya, the country with Africa’s largest crude-oil reserves.
- JFE Steel Corp., Japan’s second-largest steel producer, said prices of iron ore and coking coal will probably decline next year on increased supplies.
- A rally in India’s stock market, the second-best performer in Aisa since the Congress Party took power 16 months ago, may be over as earnings growth slows.
- NRG Energy agreed to buy electricity producer Texas Genco Holdings LLC for about $5.8 billion.
- A tour boat carrying 49 people, many of them senior citizens, capsized this afternoon on Lake George, New York, killing 21 people.
- Confidence among executives at Japan’s largest manufacturers rose less than estimated in September.
- China’s oil and gas reserves will grow steadily in the coming 20 years and crude production will reach 150 million tons in 2010, a senior official from PetroChina said.

Barron’s:
- Edwards Lifesciences Corp., the world’s largest maker of artificial heart valves, plans to restart trials of a non-surgical valve after halting a previous study this summer when two patients died.
- MBIA Inc. is being investigated by US and NY prosecutors for not fully disclosing its investment risk in a 1996 purchase of a 46% stake in Capital Asset Research, then the biggest US tax-lien investor.

Fortune:
- Five myths about high oil prices.

Washington Post:
- Ronnie Earl, the Democratic district attorney for Travis County, Texas, said his indictment of Republican US Representative Tom DeLay has nothing to do with politics.

NY Times:
- Teach for America, a group that sends some graduates of top US colleges into the poorest schools for two years, received a record 17,350 applications this year.
- Advertising companies and television networks are working to develop a new product placement strategy that incorporates brands into the story lines of scripted television shows.
- Companies such as Time Warner and Motorola are buying back their own stock at a record pace as executives look for ways to spend surplus cash.

Philadelphia Inquirer:
- Merck & Co. is defending itself from allegations its Vioxx painkiller helped cause heart attacks by highlighting the fact that some of its most senior employees, including its marketing chief and the wife of its chief executive, took the drug regularly.

AP:
- Google is offering to connect all of San Francisco with free wireless-fidelity service, hoping such a move would allow it easier access into the telecommunications industry.

Financial Times:
- Infosys Technologies Ltd. plans to hire 6,000 software programmers in China as demand expands in the country’s $30 billion technology-services industry.

Independent:
- UK entry to the euro is “not on the agenda” and won’t take place for at least 10 years, citing an interview with former Chancellor of the Exchequer Kenneth Clarke.

Basler Zeitung:
- Chiron Corp., a US vaccine maker part-owned by Novartis AG, may in three to four years have developed a faster way to make vaccines for bird flu.

Commercial Times:
- Broadcom Corp. started ordering chips from United Microelectronics this year in a bid to ensure stable supply.

Sunday Business Post:
- Petrel Resources Plc, an Irish oil and gas exploration company, is set to sign an agreement with Iraqi oil officials to help identify new resources in the country.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on COP, TEX, MER, CVX, C, STA, AIG and MOT.
- Had negative comments on RHAT.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on LUV, ROH, ROC and CEM.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.06%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.09%.

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Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Construction Spending for August is estimated to rise .4% versus an unchanged reading in July.
- ISM Manufacturing for September is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus a reading of 53.6 in August.
- ISM Prices Paid for September is estimated to rise to 74.0 versus a reading of 62.5 in August.

span style="font-style:italic;">Afternoon
- Total Vehicle Sales for September are estimated to fall to 16.1M versus 16.8M in August.
- Domestic Vehicle Sales for September are estimated to fall to 12.8M versus 13.3M in August.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are lower, spurred by losses in financial shares in the region after a Japanese manufacturing report failed to meet expectations. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher on increased optimism heading into the final quarter of the year. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.