Tuesday, October 11, 2005
Tuesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Wall Street Journal:
- Jeffrey Greenberg, former chairman and chief executive of Marsh & McLennan, is trying to raise money for a new private-equity fund in NY.
Financial Times:
- Pfizer Inc., Alteria Group, Microsoft and Walt Disney are among US companies changing their corporate governance rules to give investors more chance to remove directors and decide executive compensation.
- The Chicago Mercantile Exchange may launch Asia’s first regional stock index futures contract. The contract will be based on S&P’s Asia 50 Index.
Xinhua news:
- Chinese companies more than doubled spending on overseas mergers and acquisitions in the first half of this year.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on MERQE.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
AMD/.08
AAPL/.37
GCI/1.13
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST
- Minutes of Sep. 20 FOMC Meeting
Wall Street Journal:
- Jeffrey Greenberg, former chairman and chief executive of Marsh & McLennan, is trying to raise money for a new private-equity fund in NY.
Financial Times:
- Pfizer Inc., Alteria Group, Microsoft and Walt Disney are among US companies changing their corporate governance rules to give investors more chance to remove directors and decide executive compensation.
- The Chicago Mercantile Exchange may launch Asia’s first regional stock index futures contract. The contract will be based on S&P’s Asia 50 Index.
Xinhua news:
- Chinese companies more than doubled spending on overseas mergers and acquisitions in the first half of this year.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on MERQE.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
AMD/.08
AAPL/.37
GCI/1.13
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST
- Minutes of Sep. 20 FOMC Meeting
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial companies in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to fall modestly later in the day. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
Monday, October 10, 2005
Stocks Finish at Session Lows as Energy Prices Bounce and Worries Over GM Rise
Indices
S&P 500 1,187.33 -.72%
DJIA 10,238.76 -.52%
NASDAQ 2,078.92 -.55%
Russell 2000 637.97 -.99%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,853.65 -.74%
S&P Barra Growth 569.41 -.53%
S&P Barra Value 613.77 -.90%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 576.85 -.28%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 691.24 -2.06%
Morgan Stanley Technology 490.90 -.85%
Transports 3,665.85 -.35%
Utilities 406.03 -1.88%
Put/Call 1.01 +8.60%
NYSE Arms 1.59 +81.33%
Volatility(VIX) 15.55 +6.58%
ISE Sentiment 130.00 -18.75%
US Dollar 89.46 +.33%
CRB 325.96 +.23%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 62.32 +.78%
Unleaded Gasoline 181.31 -.88%
Natural Gas 13.14 +1.27%
Heating Oil 198.20 +.52%
Gold 478.10 +.02%
Base Metals 133.49 -.09%
Copper 180.60 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.35% -.36%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +.37%
HMOs +.15%
Restaurants +.13%
Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -2.60%
Alternative Energy -3.07%
Semis -3.24%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on DNA.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The euro fell the most in a week on concern a German government led by Christian Democratic leader Angela Merkel will struggle to push through tax cuts and labor law changes to revive Europe’s largest economy.
- NY Mayor Bloomberg said police would be “slowly winding down” the intensity of subway patrols, after the target date cited in a federal waning about a possible terrorist attack passed without incident.
- Average levels of a type of cholesterol linked to heart disease fell 10% in US mean from 2001 to 2004, according to Quest Diagnostic, the nation’s biggest operator of medical-testing labs.
- EBay’s PayPal will buy VeriSign’s payment gateway business for about $370 million.
- The San Francisco area has a 25% change of being struck by a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake in the next 20 years, according to a study based on a new forecasting method that will be published tomorrow in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
- Genentech said third-quarter earnings rose 56% as new uses for its Avastin and Herceptin cancer treatments helped spur sales.
Financial Times:
- Global economic growth may slow to 1.7% a year over the next 30 years unless people stay in work until they are older to offset falling birth rates, citing the OECD.
S&P 500 1,187.33 -.72%
DJIA 10,238.76 -.52%
NASDAQ 2,078.92 -.55%
Russell 2000 637.97 -.99%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,853.65 -.74%
S&P Barra Growth 569.41 -.53%
S&P Barra Value 613.77 -.90%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 576.85 -.28%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 691.24 -2.06%
Morgan Stanley Technology 490.90 -.85%
Transports 3,665.85 -.35%
Utilities 406.03 -1.88%
Put/Call 1.01 +8.60%
NYSE Arms 1.59 +81.33%
Volatility(VIX) 15.55 +6.58%
ISE Sentiment 130.00 -18.75%
US Dollar 89.46 +.33%
CRB 325.96 +.23%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 62.32 +.78%
Unleaded Gasoline 181.31 -.88%
Natural Gas 13.14 +1.27%
Heating Oil 198.20 +.52%
Gold 478.10 +.02%
Base Metals 133.49 -.09%
Copper 180.60 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.35% -.36%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +.37%
HMOs +.15%
Restaurants +.13%
Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -2.60%
Alternative Energy -3.07%
Semis -3.24%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on DNA.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The euro fell the most in a week on concern a German government led by Christian Democratic leader Angela Merkel will struggle to push through tax cuts and labor law changes to revive Europe’s largest economy.
- NY Mayor Bloomberg said police would be “slowly winding down” the intensity of subway patrols, after the target date cited in a federal waning about a possible terrorist attack passed without incident.
- Average levels of a type of cholesterol linked to heart disease fell 10% in US mean from 2001 to 2004, according to Quest Diagnostic, the nation’s biggest operator of medical-testing labs.
- EBay’s PayPal will buy VeriSign’s payment gateway business for about $370 million.
- The San Francisco area has a 25% change of being struck by a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake in the next 20 years, according to a study based on a new forecasting method that will be published tomorrow in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
- Genentech said third-quarter earnings rose 56% as new uses for its Avastin and Herceptin cancer treatments helped spur sales.
Financial Times:
- Global economic growth may slow to 1.7% a year over the next 30 years unless people stay in work until they are older to offset falling birth rates, citing the OECD.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished unchanged today as gains in my Energy-related shorts offset losses in my Semiconductor longs. I added back to my IWM and QQQQ shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, most sectors declined and volume was light. Measures of investor anxiety were higher into the close. Overall, today’s market action was negative. November lumber futures have fallen 12% from highs seen after Hurricane Katrina. It appears the downtrend in lumber pricing has resumed even with massive hurricane rebuilding on the horizon.
Stocks Slightly Higher Mid-day as Energy Stocks Resume Decline
S&P 500 1,194.04 -.16%
DJIA 10,308.00 +.16%
NASDAQ 2,091.03 +.03%
Russell 2000 642.25 -.32%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,922.44 -.16%
S&P Barra Growth 572.70 +.05%
S&P Barra Value 617.54 -.29%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 579.78 +.22%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 696.00 -1.39%
Morgan Stanley Technology 494.86 -.05%
Transports 3,686.65 +.21%
Utilities 409.72 -.99%
Put/Call .96 +3.23%
NYSE Arms 1.28 +46.06%
Volatility(VIX) 15.08 +3.36%
ISE Sentiment 126.00 -21.25%
US Dollar 89.52 +.39%
CRB 324.80 -.13%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.00 -1.36%
Unleaded Gasoline 179.10 -2.09%
Natural Gas 12.81 -3.15%
Heating Oil 193.75 -1.15%
Gold 477.90 +.04%
Base Metals 133.49 -.09%
Copper 180.60 -.14%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.35% -.36%
Leading Sectors %
Disk Drives +.93%
HMOs +.48%
Biotech +.41%
Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -1.75%
Energy -2.01%
Homebuilders -2.19%
DJIA 10,308.00 +.16%
NASDAQ 2,091.03 +.03%
Russell 2000 642.25 -.32%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,922.44 -.16%
S&P Barra Growth 572.70 +.05%
S&P Barra Value 617.54 -.29%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 579.78 +.22%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 696.00 -1.39%
Morgan Stanley Technology 494.86 -.05%
Transports 3,686.65 +.21%
Utilities 409.72 -.99%
Put/Call .96 +3.23%
NYSE Arms 1.28 +46.06%
Volatility(VIX) 15.08 +3.36%
ISE Sentiment 126.00 -21.25%
US Dollar 89.52 +.39%
CRB 324.80 -.13%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.00 -1.36%
Unleaded Gasoline 179.10 -2.09%
Natural Gas 12.81 -3.15%
Heating Oil 193.75 -1.15%
Gold 477.90 +.04%
Base Metals 133.49 -.09%
Copper 180.60 -.14%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.35% -.36%
Leading Sectors %
Disk Drives +.93%
HMOs +.48%
Biotech +.41%
Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -1.75%
Energy -2.01%
Homebuilders -2.19%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Energy-related shorts and Internet longs. I added to my IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning and then covered them, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. Today’s overall market action is negative given the decline in energy prices and recent market losses. Shipments of Brent crude, the benchmark for two-thirds of the world's oil, are set to rise 21% in November from October, according to the tanker-loading program. U.S. supplies of distillates heading into the winter are already 2.7% higher than the five-year average for this time of year. This is especially bearish for crude considering global demand is now falling. Look for the International Energy Agency to cut its 2005 world oil demand growth forecast for the fourth consecutive month tomorrow on falling consumption in the U.S. and China. Natural gas storage is also 40 bcf above the five-year average for this time of the year, even with the massive shut-ins in the Gulf. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on short-covering.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Time Warner’s AOL is investing about $50 million on a new national advertising campaign to highlight the content and features of the company’s free Internet site.
- Seizures of Ecstasy pills on New York streets have plummeted in the past four years as has the price of the drug. Authorities say the US Drug Enforcement Administration’s NY unit is seizing hundreds of thousands of Ecstasy pills each year, meaning shipments are being caught before they reach the street.
- Crude oil is falling for the sixth day in seven and gasoline dropped on signs that near-record prices have substantially cut fuel consumption.
- Lincoln National agreed to buy Jefferson-Pilot for about $7.5 billion as low interest rates squeeze profits.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said foreign purchases of US debt are probably having a “modest” effect on Treasury yields, and the low rates may result mainly from the increase in the global savings rate.
Wall Street Journal:
- Clear Channel Communications and other media companies are rushing into podcasting in a bid to grab young listeners.
- BellSouth may announce today that it has signed an agreement with Sprint Nextel that will let BellSouth extend its network to serve businesses nationwide.
- Motorola plans to start pilot testing this week of a communications system that would allow local police to share information about possible terrorist threats.
- Russia’s government plans to cut the value-added tax to 13% from 18% to spur economic growth and achieve President Vladimir Putin’s goal of doubling the economy this decade.
NY Post:
- Yahoo! plans to begin testing a free service today where users can find, organize and rate audio programs to be played on portable music players.
- Verizon Communications is boosting print and broadcast advertisements of its Broadband Access wireless Internet service to compete with rivals offering Wi-Fi technology.
NY Times:
- US Online shopping sites are likely to benefit as customers shop online in a bid to cut gasoline costs.
- US television networks including GE’s NBC have lowered their expectations this season for ratings on reality shows such as NBC’s “The Apprentice.”
AP:
- The White House has authorized $50 million of aid for Pakistan after the country was hit by an earthquake two days ago.
Guardian:
- A Chinese democracy activist was beaten, possibly to death, by a mob near a village in southern China that has become a flashpoint for a growing wave of rural unrest in the nation.
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
- Yahoo! expects rising spending by companies on internet advertising will hurt revenue of television companies.
- Time Warner’s AOL is investing about $50 million on a new national advertising campaign to highlight the content and features of the company’s free Internet site.
- Seizures of Ecstasy pills on New York streets have plummeted in the past four years as has the price of the drug. Authorities say the US Drug Enforcement Administration’s NY unit is seizing hundreds of thousands of Ecstasy pills each year, meaning shipments are being caught before they reach the street.
- Crude oil is falling for the sixth day in seven and gasoline dropped on signs that near-record prices have substantially cut fuel consumption.
- Lincoln National agreed to buy Jefferson-Pilot for about $7.5 billion as low interest rates squeeze profits.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said foreign purchases of US debt are probably having a “modest” effect on Treasury yields, and the low rates may result mainly from the increase in the global savings rate.
Wall Street Journal:
- Clear Channel Communications and other media companies are rushing into podcasting in a bid to grab young listeners.
- BellSouth may announce today that it has signed an agreement with Sprint Nextel that will let BellSouth extend its network to serve businesses nationwide.
- Motorola plans to start pilot testing this week of a communications system that would allow local police to share information about possible terrorist threats.
- Russia’s government plans to cut the value-added tax to 13% from 18% to spur economic growth and achieve President Vladimir Putin’s goal of doubling the economy this decade.
NY Post:
- Yahoo! plans to begin testing a free service today where users can find, organize and rate audio programs to be played on portable music players.
- Verizon Communications is boosting print and broadcast advertisements of its Broadband Access wireless Internet service to compete with rivals offering Wi-Fi technology.
NY Times:
- US Online shopping sites are likely to benefit as customers shop online in a bid to cut gasoline costs.
- US television networks including GE’s NBC have lowered their expectations this season for ratings on reality shows such as NBC’s “The Apprentice.”
AP:
- The White House has authorized $50 million of aid for Pakistan after the country was hit by an earthquake two days ago.
Guardian:
- A Chinese democracy activist was beaten, possibly to death, by a mob near a village in southern China that has become a flashpoint for a growing wave of rural unrest in the nation.
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
- Yahoo! expects rising spending by companies on internet advertising will hurt revenue of television companies.
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