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Saturday, October 29, 2005
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 1,198.41 +1.60%
DJIA 10,402.77 +1.84%
NASDAQ 2,089.88 +.37%
Russell 2000 635.33 +.41%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,933.82 +1.36%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,053.34 +.57%
S&P Barra Growth 573.48 +.89%
S&P Barra Value 620.78 +2.28%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.68 +1.23%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 709.46 +3.30%
Morgan Stanley Technology 491.91 -1.15%
Transports 3,741.81 +3.26%
Utilities 396.01 +2.42%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 6,278.00 -1.94%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.0 +233.33%
Put/Call .82 -18.0%
NYSE Arms .51 -60.77%
Volatility(VIX) 14.25 -11.65%
ISE Sentiment 125.00 -10.71%
AAII % Bulls 32.05 -25.66%
US Dollar 89.59 -.74%
CRB 322.13 -.12%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.22 +1.11%
Unleaded Gasoline 162.42 -.96%
Natural Gas 13.05 -.95%
Heating Oil 184.35 -1.28%
Gold 475.00 +1.71%
Base Metals 133.00 +1.33%
Copper 181.95 +1.99%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.56% +3.87%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.15% +.82%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +6.67%
Energy +5.01%
Steel +4.88%
Lagging Sectors
HMOs -3.35%
Hospitals -3.79%
Semis -3.84%
One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers
*5-Day % Change
S&P 500 1,198.41 +1.60%
DJIA 10,402.77 +1.84%
NASDAQ 2,089.88 +.37%
Russell 2000 635.33 +.41%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,933.82 +1.36%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,053.34 +.57%
S&P Barra Growth 573.48 +.89%
S&P Barra Value 620.78 +2.28%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.68 +1.23%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 709.46 +3.30%
Morgan Stanley Technology 491.91 -1.15%
Transports 3,741.81 +3.26%
Utilities 396.01 +2.42%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 6,278.00 -1.94%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.0 +233.33%
Put/Call .82 -18.0%
NYSE Arms .51 -60.77%
Volatility(VIX) 14.25 -11.65%
ISE Sentiment 125.00 -10.71%
AAII % Bulls 32.05 -25.66%
US Dollar 89.59 -.74%
CRB 322.13 -.12%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.22 +1.11%
Unleaded Gasoline 162.42 -.96%
Natural Gas 13.05 -.95%
Heating Oil 184.35 -1.28%
Gold 475.00 +1.71%
Base Metals 133.00 +1.33%
Copper 181.95 +1.99%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.56% +3.87%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.15% +.82%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +6.67%
Energy +5.01%
Steel +4.88%
Lagging Sectors
HMOs -3.35%
Hospitals -3.79%
Semis -3.84%
One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers
*5-Day % Change
Friday, October 28, 2005
Stocks Sharply Higher Mid-day on Positive Economic Data
Indices
S&P 500 1,193.26 +1.22%
DJIA 10,364.67 +1.32%
NASDAQ 2,082.17 +.89%
Russell 2000 632.79 +1.46%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,894.94 +1.30%
S&P Barra Growth 571.76 +1.19%
S&P Barra Value 618.51 +1.41%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 582.93 +1.02%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 707.40 +1.31%
Morgan Stanley Technology 490.03 +.40%
Transports 3,728.03 +1.46%
Utilities 393.91 +1.78%
Put/Call .82 -26.13%
NYSE Arms .57 -63.17%
Volatility(VIX) 14.51 -9.43%
ISE Sentiment 126.00 -18.18%
US Dollar 89.62 +.58%
CRB 321.85 -.48%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.10 +.10%
Unleaded Gasoline 161.50 +1.41%
Natural Gas 12.99 -5.07%
Heating Oil 184.25 -.61%
Gold 474.80 -.17%
Base Metals 133.00 -.34%
Copper 182.00 +.89%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.58% +.85%
Leading Sectors %
Airlines +3.32%
Steel +2.72%
REITs +2.40%
Lagging Sectors
Wireless unch.
Coal -.60%
Semis -1.35%
S&P 500 1,193.26 +1.22%
DJIA 10,364.67 +1.32%
NASDAQ 2,082.17 +.89%
Russell 2000 632.79 +1.46%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,894.94 +1.30%
S&P Barra Growth 571.76 +1.19%
S&P Barra Value 618.51 +1.41%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 582.93 +1.02%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 707.40 +1.31%
Morgan Stanley Technology 490.03 +.40%
Transports 3,728.03 +1.46%
Utilities 393.91 +1.78%
Put/Call .82 -26.13%
NYSE Arms .57 -63.17%
Volatility(VIX) 14.51 -9.43%
ISE Sentiment 126.00 -18.18%
US Dollar 89.62 +.58%
CRB 321.85 -.48%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.10 +.10%
Unleaded Gasoline 161.50 +1.41%
Natural Gas 12.99 -5.07%
Heating Oil 184.25 -.61%
Gold 474.80 -.17%
Base Metals 133.00 -.34%
Copper 182.00 +.89%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.58% +.85%
Leading Sectors %
Airlines +3.32%
Steel +2.72%
REITs +2.40%
Lagging Sectors
Wireless unch.
Coal -.60%
Semis -1.35%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Internet longs, Retail longs and Airline longs. I covered some of my IWM and QQQQ shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are higher and volume is slightly above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is positive considering the rise in long-term rates and political news. It appears the lows of two weeks ago will hold and equities should see much better performance through year-end. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on short covering.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stood by his comment that Israel “must be wiped off the map,” ignoring condemnation from the European Union, US and Russia.
- I. Lewis Libby was indicted by a grand jury investigating who leaked the name of an alleged covert CIA agent. Libby resigned shortly afterward. Karl Rove, who made four appearances before the grand jury, wasn’t charged.
- Natural gas prices continue to fall after a report yesterday showed US stockpiles were ample to meet winter demand.
Wall Street Journal:
- Verizon Communications faces demands from local authorities to fund a variety of projects in exchange for allowing the company to roll out its high-speed network.
- Oil prices at more than $60 a barrel are spurring increased interest in biofuels, including plants that use turkey feathers, bones, fat and even entire birds to produce diesel fuel.
- Esprit, a brand that largely disappeared from the US, is attempting a US comeback with high-fashion goods.
- Abigail Johnson, Fidelity Investments’ biggest shareholder, has reduced her stake in the US mutual-fund company, raising questions about whether she will succeed her father at the head of the firm.
- Delta Air Lines may end its Song discount carrier unit introduced in 2003, and apply some of the experience gained to Delta flights.
NY Times:
- The American Association of Retired Persons is seeking to attract more members by selling and endorsing products.
- The US oil and gas industry, awash with money, is facing a labor and equipment shortage.
- Fifth Third Bank of Cincinnati may be the subject of takeover interest as disappointing deposit growth reversed its fortunes and sent its stock down.
Washington Post:
- Rosa Parks, the African-American whose arrest helped spark the US civil-rights movement, may be honored by Congress with a vigil in the Capitol Rotunda to market her death on Oct. 24.
- The FBI may not monitor the locations of cellular phone users without showing evidence that a crime took place or is in progress.
- A federal program that has doled out more than $10 billion to help schools and libraries access the Internet has wasted millions of dollars.
Le Figaro:
- A French Islamist terrorist group has obtained shoulder-held anti-aircraft missiles from Chechnya with the intention of bringing down an airliner at a French airport, citing judicial documents.
- Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stood by his comment that Israel “must be wiped off the map,” ignoring condemnation from the European Union, US and Russia.
- I. Lewis Libby was indicted by a grand jury investigating who leaked the name of an alleged covert CIA agent. Libby resigned shortly afterward. Karl Rove, who made four appearances before the grand jury, wasn’t charged.
- Natural gas prices continue to fall after a report yesterday showed US stockpiles were ample to meet winter demand.
Wall Street Journal:
- Verizon Communications faces demands from local authorities to fund a variety of projects in exchange for allowing the company to roll out its high-speed network.
- Oil prices at more than $60 a barrel are spurring increased interest in biofuels, including plants that use turkey feathers, bones, fat and even entire birds to produce diesel fuel.
- Esprit, a brand that largely disappeared from the US, is attempting a US comeback with high-fashion goods.
- Abigail Johnson, Fidelity Investments’ biggest shareholder, has reduced her stake in the US mutual-fund company, raising questions about whether she will succeed her father at the head of the firm.
- Delta Air Lines may end its Song discount carrier unit introduced in 2003, and apply some of the experience gained to Delta flights.
NY Times:
- The American Association of Retired Persons is seeking to attract more members by selling and endorsing products.
- The US oil and gas industry, awash with money, is facing a labor and equipment shortage.
- Fifth Third Bank of Cincinnati may be the subject of takeover interest as disappointing deposit growth reversed its fortunes and sent its stock down.
Washington Post:
- Rosa Parks, the African-American whose arrest helped spark the US civil-rights movement, may be honored by Congress with a vigil in the Capitol Rotunda to market her death on Oct. 24.
- The FBI may not monitor the locations of cellular phone users without showing evidence that a crime took place or is in progress.
- A federal program that has doled out more than $10 billion to help schools and libraries access the Internet has wasted millions of dollars.
Le Figaro:
- A French Islamist terrorist group has obtained shoulder-held anti-aircraft missiles from Chechnya with the intention of bringing down an airliner at a French airport, citing judicial documents.
US Growth Streak Best Since 1986, Inflation Contained, Confidence Remains Weaker
- Advance 3Q GDP rose 3.8% versus estimates of a 3.6% increase and a 3.3% gain in 2Q.
- Advance 3Q GDP Price Index rose 3.1% versus estimates of a 2.8% increase and a 2.6% increase in 2Q.
- Advance 3Q Personal Consumption rose 3.9% versus estimates of a 3.3% increase and a 3.4% gain in 2Q.
- 3Q Employment Cost Index rose .8% versus estimates of a .8% gain and a .7% increase in 2Q.
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for October fell to 74.2 versus estimates of 76.0 and a prior estimate of 75.4.
- Advance 3Q GDP Price Index rose 3.1% versus estimates of a 2.8% increase and a 2.6% increase in 2Q.
- Advance 3Q Personal Consumption rose 3.9% versus estimates of a 3.3% increase and a 3.4% gain in 2Q.
- 3Q Employment Cost Index rose .8% versus estimates of a .8% gain and a .7% increase in 2Q.
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for October fell to 74.2 versus estimates of 76.0 and a prior estimate of 75.4.
BOTTOM LINE: US economic growth quickened to a 3.8% annual rate in the third quarter, faster than economists predicted and evidence the economy was able to withstand higher energy costs, Bloomberg reported. Companies pared inventories for the second quarter in a row which will likely boost growth in 4Q as companies rebuild inventories. US growth has exceeded 3% for 10 straight quarters, the best streak since the 13 quarters that ended in March 1986 and the best performance among the G-7, which includes Japan, Germany, the UK, France Italy and Canada. Consumer spending rose 3.9% last quarter, the most this year and higher than the 20-year average of 3.4%. The core personal consumption expenditures index, Greenspan’s favorite inflation gauge, rose at a 1.3% annual rate, the slowest since the second quarter of 2003. The trade deficit narrowed to $611.8 billion from $614.2 billion in 2Q, adding .08 percentage point to 3Q GDP after adding 1.1 percentage points in 2Q. This is the first time trade has added to growth in back-to-back quarters since the last half of 1995. I continue to believe growth slowed to below average levels after the hurricanes struck in September and that a bounce back to average growth will occur into year-end.
US consumer confidence fell below estimates this month as energy costs remained elevated, Bloomberg reported. The average price of gas is 38% higher than this time last year. The current conditions component of the index fell to 91.2 from 98.1 in September. Since reaching a record in September, the average price of gas has fallen five of the past eight weeks and was $2.60/gallon in the week ended Oct. 24. I continue to anticipate a sharp rebound in consumer sentiment over the next few months.
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