Friday, November 25, 2005
Thursday, November 24, 2005
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Canadian stocks rose to the highest in five years, led by dividend-paying companies such as Toronto-Dominion Bank and BCE Inc., after the government lowered taxes on the payouts and decided against taxing income trusts.
- Jordan’s King Abdullah II appointed a new prime minister and called on the government to undertake a war on terrorism in the wake of the hotel bombings Nov. 9 in the capital, Amman, that killed at least 57 people.
- Nokia Oyj said the company’s handset sales in the greater China region rose 77% in the first nine months compared with a year earlier on increasing demand.
Financial Times:
- The US newspaper industry is under threat as classified advertising moves onto the Internet and circulations continue to fall, citing News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch.
Commercial Times:
- China Steel forecasts its first-quarter sales will fall by $90 million from the fourth quarter on declining product prices and the closure of one of its major plants for maintenance.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.15%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
- None of note
Bloomberg:
- Canadian stocks rose to the highest in five years, led by dividend-paying companies such as Toronto-Dominion Bank and BCE Inc., after the government lowered taxes on the payouts and decided against taxing income trusts.
- Jordan’s King Abdullah II appointed a new prime minister and called on the government to undertake a war on terrorism in the wake of the hotel bombings Nov. 9 in the capital, Amman, that killed at least 57 people.
- Nokia Oyj said the company’s handset sales in the greater China region rose 77% in the first nine months compared with a year earlier on increasing demand.
Financial Times:
- The US newspaper industry is under threat as classified advertising moves onto the Internet and circulations continue to fall, citing News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch.
Commercial Times:
- China Steel forecasts its first-quarter sales will fall by $90 million from the fourth quarter on declining product prices and the closure of one of its major plants for maintenance.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.15%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
- None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed as gains in Taiwan are offsetting losses in Japan. I expect US equities to trade mixed into the early close at 1 pm EST as short-covering offsets profit-taking. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
Wednesday, November 23, 2005
***Alert***
I will be unable to post through Thanksgiving. I will resume posting on Friday. Have a safe and happy holiday and thanks for reading.
Stocks Higher Mid-day on Rising Optimism, Lower Energy Prices and Short-Covering
Indices
S&P 500 1,267.99 +.54%
DJIA 10,928.18 +.52%
NASDAQ 2,264.74 +.50%
Russell 2000 684.47 +.28%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,672.98 +.51%
S&P Barra Growth 606.25 +.39%
S&P Barra Value 657.42 +.68%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 595.55 +.30%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 777.36 +.55%
Morgan Stanley Technology 536.23 +.87%
Transports 4,182.99 +.07%
Utilities 401.30 +.70%
Put/Call .68 -29.90%
NYSE Arms .72 -1.97%
Volatility(VIX) 10.81 +1.89%
ISE Sentiment 174.00 -1.14%
US Dollar 91.48 -.02%
CRB 314.08 -.45%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.25 -1.0%
Unleaded Gasoline 146.10 -1.78%
Natural Gas 11.66 +.40%
Heating Oil 169.25 -2.51%
Gold 491.10 -.37%
Base Metals 139.70 -.32%
Copper 185.00 +.14%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.46% +.97%
Leading Sectors
Steel +3.06%
Gaming +1.52%
Networking +1.47%
Lagging Sectors
Biotech -.71%
Oil Tankers -.72%
Gold & Silver -1.42%
S&P 500 1,267.99 +.54%
DJIA 10,928.18 +.52%
NASDAQ 2,264.74 +.50%
Russell 2000 684.47 +.28%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,672.98 +.51%
S&P Barra Growth 606.25 +.39%
S&P Barra Value 657.42 +.68%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 595.55 +.30%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 777.36 +.55%
Morgan Stanley Technology 536.23 +.87%
Transports 4,182.99 +.07%
Utilities 401.30 +.70%
Put/Call .68 -29.90%
NYSE Arms .72 -1.97%
Volatility(VIX) 10.81 +1.89%
ISE Sentiment 174.00 -1.14%
US Dollar 91.48 -.02%
CRB 314.08 -.45%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.25 -1.0%
Unleaded Gasoline 146.10 -1.78%
Natural Gas 11.66 +.40%
Heating Oil 169.25 -2.51%
Gold 491.10 -.37%
Base Metals 139.70 -.32%
Copper 185.00 +.14%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.46% +.97%
Leading Sectors
Steel +3.06%
Gaming +1.52%
Networking +1.47%
Lagging Sectors
Biotech -.71%
Oil Tankers -.72%
Gold & Silver -1.42%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day as gains in my Internet longs, Medical Information Systems longs, Semi longs, Computer longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, most sectors are rising and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Overall, today’s market action is slightly positive considering recent gains and the bounce in long-term rates. Here are some thoughts on the Xbox 360:
1. The improvement over prior gaming systems is significant.
2. Microsoft (MSFT) over-promised to retailers.
3. There is going to be a severe shortage for the holidays.
4. Stories of ridiculous auctions on eBay (EBAY) will be common, generating more buzz.
5. The Xbox will take more market share from Sony (SNE) than most expect.
6. High definition television and surround sound equipment sales will accelerate as a result.
7. Rumors of excessive crashing are likely over-hyped.
I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on short-covering, lower energy prices and more optimism.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Worldwide server sales increased 8.1% in the third quarter, the 10th straight advance, as demand increased for computers that run corporate networks and Web sites, researcher IDC said.
- Research In Motion, maker of the BlackBerry e-mail pager, cut its forecast for signing up new clients because of delay in introducing products.
- Crude oil, heating oil and gasoline are falling after an Energy Department report showed that US fuel stockpiles rose and on forecasts for warmer weather in the US Northeast.
- US Treasuries are falling after the government’s auction of two-year notes drew less demand than some traders expected, a day after the Fed signaled it may be ready to slow the pace of interest-rate increases.
Wall Street Journal:
- Google’s expansion has sparked a hiring frenzy in Silicon Valley as Internet companies compete for qualified candidates.
- Neurointensive care is helping stroke patients once considered untreatable to recover from brain damage.
- Saks Fifth Avenue, Ralph Lauren, Bergdorf Goodman and other retailers are finding e-mail advertising is one of fashion’s most effective marketing methods.
- Verizon Communications and Cablevision Systems are fighting in NYC and other US communities as phone companies’ network upgrades push them into competition with cable companies.
- Loral Space & Communications may add as many as 600 employees at its satellite-making unit.
- The Motion Picture Association of America and Bram Cohen, creator of software used to download movies illegally over the Internet, reached an accord to remove links to copyrighted movies from Cohen’s search engine and Web site.
- The IRS plans more audits next year as agents examine more returns of US taxpayers with incomes of at least $100,000 for evidence of abusive shelters, offshore accounts or transactions designed to avoid paying taxes.
Washington Post:
- The Defense Department plans to cut the number of US troops in Iraq early next year by as many as three combat brigades, from 18 now, citing unidentified senior military officers.
Rocky Mountain News:
- Denver-area single-family homes sold for an average of $309,030 in November, down from $314,586 in October and $289,934 a year ago.
NY Times:
- The US energy-drinks market grew 61% to $3 billion this year, citing Beverage Digest.
AP:
- Iraqi Foreign Minister Zebari arrived in Tokyo today for a four-day visit to meet with Prime Minister Koizumi and Foreign Minister Aso to discuss Japan’s support for Iraq’s reconstruction.
Gazeta Wyborcza:
- An Iraqi government delegation will visit Poland on Dec. 6 to discuss the presence of Polish troops in Iraq and investment opportunities for Polish companies in the Middle Eastern country.
- Worldwide server sales increased 8.1% in the third quarter, the 10th straight advance, as demand increased for computers that run corporate networks and Web sites, researcher IDC said.
- Research In Motion, maker of the BlackBerry e-mail pager, cut its forecast for signing up new clients because of delay in introducing products.
- Crude oil, heating oil and gasoline are falling after an Energy Department report showed that US fuel stockpiles rose and on forecasts for warmer weather in the US Northeast.
- US Treasuries are falling after the government’s auction of two-year notes drew less demand than some traders expected, a day after the Fed signaled it may be ready to slow the pace of interest-rate increases.
Wall Street Journal:
- Google’s expansion has sparked a hiring frenzy in Silicon Valley as Internet companies compete for qualified candidates.
- Neurointensive care is helping stroke patients once considered untreatable to recover from brain damage.
- Saks Fifth Avenue, Ralph Lauren, Bergdorf Goodman and other retailers are finding e-mail advertising is one of fashion’s most effective marketing methods.
- Verizon Communications and Cablevision Systems are fighting in NYC and other US communities as phone companies’ network upgrades push them into competition with cable companies.
- Loral Space & Communications may add as many as 600 employees at its satellite-making unit.
- The Motion Picture Association of America and Bram Cohen, creator of software used to download movies illegally over the Internet, reached an accord to remove links to copyrighted movies from Cohen’s search engine and Web site.
- The IRS plans more audits next year as agents examine more returns of US taxpayers with incomes of at least $100,000 for evidence of abusive shelters, offshore accounts or transactions designed to avoid paying taxes.
Washington Post:
- The Defense Department plans to cut the number of US troops in Iraq early next year by as many as three combat brigades, from 18 now, citing unidentified senior military officers.
Rocky Mountain News:
- Denver-area single-family homes sold for an average of $309,030 in November, down from $314,586 in October and $289,934 a year ago.
NY Times:
- The US energy-drinks market grew 61% to $3 billion this year, citing Beverage Digest.
AP:
- Iraqi Foreign Minister Zebari arrived in Tokyo today for a four-day visit to meet with Prime Minister Koizumi and Foreign Minister Aso to discuss Japan’s support for Iraq’s reconstruction.
Gazeta Wyborcza:
- An Iraqi government delegation will visit Poland on Dec. 6 to discuss the presence of Polish troops in Iraq and investment opportunities for Polish companies in the Middle Eastern country.
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